Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,201–5,250

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5201	NORTHERN LAKES NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	C	IN	ANGOLA	99	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5202	Rennes Health and Rehab Center-De Pere	0.3%	65.8	B	WI	De Pere	137	—
5203	NORTHWEST MANOR HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	126	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5204	ZEBULON PARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.8	A	GA	MACON	66	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
5205	Fox Run Village	0.3%	65.8	B	MI	Novi	44	OAK INVESTMENT TRUST II
5206	BROOKSIDE VILLAGE INC	0.3%	65.8	C	IN	JASPER	27	CARDON AND ASSOCIATES INC
5207	Horizons Living and Rehab Center	0.3%	65.8	A	ME	BRUNSWICK	65	—
5208	Shamrock Nursing Center	0.3%	65.8	D	NC	Charlotte	100	—
5209	THIEF RIVER CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	MN	THIEF RIVER FALLS	70	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
5210	ROYAL NORWELL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER LLC	0.3%	65.8	D	MA	NORWELL	86	—
5211	PROMENADE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	NY	ROCKAWAY PARK	240	—
5212	Beaumont Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.3%	65.8	F	TX	Beaumont	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
5213	CLINCH VALLEY MEDICAL CENTER	0.3%	65.8	C	VA	RICHLANDS	24	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
5214	Stone Rehabilitation And Senior Living	0.3%	65.8	C	MA	NEWTON UPPER FALLS	82	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
5215	Epworth Villa Health Services	0.3%	65.8	C	OK	Oklahoma City	87	UNIDINE CORPORATION
5216	GARFIELD NEUROBEHAVIORAL CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	CA	OAKLAND	96	—
5217	ASTORIA SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	65.8	C	OH	CANTON	83	—
5218	Trinity Center at Luther Park	0.3%	65.8	B	IA	Des Moines	120	—
5219	ROANE GENERAL HOSPITAL	0.3%	65.8	A	WV	SPENCER	35	—
5220	WAYNE WOODLANDS MANOR	0.3%	65.8	D	PA	WAYMART	117	WAYNE MEMORIAL HEALTH SYSTEM INC
5221	OVERLAND PARK POST ACUTE	0.3%	65.8	C	KS	OVERLAND PARK	140	—
5222	REDMONT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	C	AL	BIRMINGHAM	163	GNH IRRV TR
5223	WILLOW RIDGE HEALTHCARE	0.3%	65.8	B	WI	AMERY	83	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
5224	TACONIC REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT ULSTER	0.3%	65.8	C	NY	HIGHLAND	120	—
5225	GREENBRIAR COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	LA	SLIDELL	174	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5226	JEFFERSON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	D	TX	BEAUMONT	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
5227	PLEASANT MANOR NURSING & REHAB	0.3%	65.8	A	AR	ASHDOWN	88	—
5228	WESTPARK A WATERS COMMUNITY	0.3%	65.8	D	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	89	MAJOR HOSPITAL
5229	MCKNIGHT PLACE EXTENDED CARE	0.3%	65.8	A	MO	SAINT LOUIS	70	—
5230	WATERS OF MIDDLETOWN SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.3%	65.8	B	IN	MIDDLETOWN	60	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5231	FOUNTAINBLEAU LODGE	0.3%	65.8	B	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	33	—
5232	Perkins Country Manor	0.3%	65.8	A	KY	Augusta	32	—
5233	Ripley Healthcare And Rehab Center	0.3%	65.8	C	TN	RIPLEY	144	B&Y TRUST
5234	Edgewood Convalescent Home	0.3%	65.8	A	IA	Edgewood	56	KEVIN PERRINJAQUET ESTATE
5235	EXCEL AT WOODBURY FOR REHAB AND NURSING, L L C	0.3%	65.8	C	NY	WOODBURY	123	—
5236	Oak Hollow Of Sumter Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	65.8	D	SC	Sumter	96	REGIONAL HEALTH PROPERTIES INC
5237	Eastwood Nursing Center	0.3%	65.8	A	MI	Negaunee	100	—
5238	BEND TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.3%	65.8	A	OR	BEND	60	—
5239	CARDINAL NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	IN	SOUTH BEND	144	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5240	RATLIFF CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	MO	CAPE GIRARDEAU	46	CHOICE REHABILITATION LLC
5241	SALEM HILLS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	65.8	B	NY	PURDYS	126	—
5242	WESTERN MD HOSPITAL CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	MD	HAGERSTOWN	63	STATE OF MARYLAND CENTRAL PAYROLL BUREAU
5243	BRIARCLIFF HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	IN	SOUTH BEND	131	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5244	OTTERBEIN SPRINGBORO	0.3%	65.8	A	OH	CENTERVILLE	60	OTTERBEIN HOME
5245	LUXE AT JUPITER REHABILITATION CENTER (THE)	0.3%	65.8	F	FL	JUPITER	129	—
5246	Hardinsburg Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.3%	65.8	C	KY	Hardinsburg	63	—
5247	AVIATA AT NORTH FORT MYERS	0.3%	65.8	C	FL	N FT MYERS	120	—
5248	ASBURY TOWERS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	65.8	A	IN	GREENCASTLE	48	PULASKI MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5249	The Villages on MacArthur	0.3%	65.8	B	TX	Irving	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5250	CHARLENE MANOR EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.3%	65.8	B	MA	GREENFIELD	123	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC

Showing 5,201–5,250 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.