Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,951–5,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4951	LORIEN MAYS CHAPEL	0.3%	67.6	A	MD	TIMONIUM	93	—
4952	TACOMA NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	67.6	C	WA	TACOMA	150	—
4953	ST CHARLES HEALTH CAMPUS	0.3%	67.6	B	IN	JASPER	68	GOOD SAMARITAN HOSPITAL
4954	MT MACRINA MANOR	0.3%	67.6	C	PA	UNIONTOWN	124	—
4955	Western Sky Community Care Center Inc	0.3%	67.6	A	NE	Grant	44	—
4956	COMFORT CARE NURSING CENTER	0.3%	67.6	A	MS	LAUREL	126	SOUTH CENTRAL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER
4957	ST JOSEPH NURSING HOME	0.3%	67.6	—	ME	FRENCHVILLE	43	—
4958	A.G. RHODES HOME WESLEY WOODS	0.3%	67.6	B	GA	ATLANTA	150	UNIDINE CORPORATION
4959	Hansford County Hospital District DBA Lakeridge Nu	0.3%	67.6	F	TX	LUBBOCK	90	HANSFORD COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4960	NORTHERN LIGHTS HCC	0.3%	67.6	C	WI	WASHBURN	50	—
4961	CIVITA CARE CENTER AT DANBURY	0.3%	67.6	C	CT	DANBURY	180	ESNH LLC
4962	West Hills Health & Rehabilitation	0.3%	67.6	B	OR	PORTLAND	180	JOHN B GOODMAN 2006 IRRV GRANTOR TR
4963	OAKDALE CARE CENTER	0.3%	67.6	F	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	70	—
4964	BUSHWICK CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CARE	0.3%	67.6	A	NY	BROOKLYN	225	—
4965	BUCKNER WESTMINSTER PLACE	0.3%	67.6	C	TX	LONGVIEW	0	BUCKNER RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
4966	Hillcrest Shadow Lake LLC	0.3%	67.6	D	NE	Papillion	114	—
4967	IMPERIAL MANOR	0.3%	67.6	C	CA	IMPERIAL	31	—
4968	HOLLY CARE CENTER	0.3%	67.6	B	CO	HOLLY	45	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
4969	ST. ANDREW POST-ACUTE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	67.6	A	FL	TAMPA	45	—
4970	MEADOWPARK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.3%	67.6	B	FL	DUNEDIN	120	—
4971	CROWNE HEALTHCARE OF NORTH BALDWIN	0.3%	67.6	A	AL	BAY MINETTE	75	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4972	DIVERSICARE OF LULING	0.3%	67.6	B	TX	LULING	0	DEWITT MEDICAL DISTRICT
4973	DELHI REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.3%	67.6	A	NY	DELHI	176	—
4974	TERREBONNE GENERAL MED CTR SNF	0.3%	67.6	A	LA	HOUMA	6	—
4975	OUR LADY OF MERCY LIFE CENTER	0.3%	67.6	B	NY	GUILDERLAND	160	TRINITY HEALTH CORPORATION
4976	DESERET HEALTH AND REHAB AT SARATOGA LLC	0.3%	67.6	—	WY	SARATOGA	46	—
4977	COLLINSVILLE HEALTHCARE & REHAB	0.3%	67.6	A	AL	COLLINSVILLE	200	—
4978	Wexford Senior Care Center	0.3%	67.6	B	MI	Cadillac	133	ROBIN EISENBERG 2014 FAMILY TRUST
4979	BRETHREN VILLAGE	0.3%	67.6	A	PA	LANCASTER	120	UPMC
4980	Newport Post Acute	0.3%	67.6	C	VA	NEWPORT NEWS	60	—
4981	WI VETERANS HOME-BOLAND HALL	0.3%	67.6	C	WI	UNION GROVE	158	STATE OF WISCONSIN
4982	BENEDICTINE MANOR OF LACROSSE	0.3%	67.6	B	WI	LA CROSSE	80	BENEDICTINE HEALTH SYSTEM
4983	Evangelical Home - Saline	0.3%	66.9	B	MI	Saline	143	EVANGELICAL HOMES OF MICHIGAN
4984	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE WINDERMERE	0.3%	66.9	A	FL	ORLANDO	120	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
4985	SPLENDIDO AT RANCHO VISTOSO	0.3%	66.9	B	AZ	TUCSON	42	—
4986	Good Samaritan Society - Wagner	0.3%	66.9	—	SD	WAGNER	50	—
4987	BRUNSWICK HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.3%	66.9	C	MO	BRUNSWICK	60	RELIANT CARE MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
4988	MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	A	FL	MARIANNA	180	SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4989	Fairfield Village Rehabilitation	0.3%	66.9	B	UT	Layton	40	—
4990	Oakmont Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center of Ka	0.3%	66.9	D	TX	Katy	0	—
4991	COLONIAL HEALTH & REHAB CENTER OF PLAINFIELD, LLC	0.3%	66.9	A	CT	PLAINFIELD	90	—
4992	VISTA PACIFICA CENTER	0.3%	66.9	B	CA	JURUPA VALLEY	108	—
4993	Chautauqua Guest Home #2	0.3%	66.9	A	IA	Charles City	53	FLOYD COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL COMMISSION
4994	CARING HOUSE	0.3%	66.9	B	AZ	SACATON	100	—
4995	DELTA SOUTH NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.3%	66.9	C	MO	SIKESTON	60	—
4996	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	0.3%	66.9	C	MI	Stevensville	111	COREWELL HEALTH
4997	On With Life	0.3%	66.9	B	IA	Ankeny	28	ON WITH LIFE INC
4998	WILKES REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR SN	0.3%	66.9	B	NC	NORTH WILKESBORO	10	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
4999	Las Cruces Wellness & Rehabilitation LLC	0.3%	66.9	C	NM	Las Cruces	75	—
5000	PINES NURSING HOME	0.3%	66.9	A	FL	MIAMI	46	—

Showing 4,951–5,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.