Composite
71.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 555919
C
IMPERIAL MANOR
snfCA
100 EAST 2ND STREET, IMPERIAL, CA 92251 · CCN 555919
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
31
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 71.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model3Components9CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing8Penalties10Deficiencies29Licensure0Ownership7Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent33
Composite explanation
3| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 70.7 | 65.9 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 30.30 | in index |
| chow risk | 81.4 | 30.2 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 17.44 | in index |
| staffing risk | 24.2 | 24.3 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 8.64 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
9| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 30.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 65.9 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 24.3 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 65.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 65.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 24.3 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 24.3 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
1.4%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
64.0
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.3%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
67.6
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.84 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.80 | -0.25 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 3.47 | +0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
8| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.80 | 3.95 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.54 | 3.79 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.90 | 4.01 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 29.4 | 3.80 | 0.32 | 0.59 | 2.89 | 3.54 | 3.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 27.8 | 3.67 | 0.28 | 0.64 | 2.75 | 3.45 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 27.5 | 4.32 | 0.28 | 0.74 | 3.30 | 3.89 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 29.0 | 3.63 | 0.00 | 0.88 | 2.75 | 3.62 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 28.7 | 3.88 | 0.00 | 0.79 | 3.09 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 31.4 | 3.65 | 0.00 | 0.82 | 2.83 | 3.39 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 30.3 | 3.67 | 0.00 | 0.80 | 2.87 | 3.49 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 29.6 | 3.77 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 2.93 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
10fines by year
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-10 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-18 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-11 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-09-05 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-28 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-21 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-14 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-08-07 | Fine | $4,587 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-07-17 | Fine | $13,409 | CMS provider data |
| 2023-06-26 | Fine | $3,882 | CMS provider data |
Total fines on record: $49,400
Deficiencies
29B × 4D × 12E × 9F × 3G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | E | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | F | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0911 | Ensure resident rooms hold no more than 4 residents; for new construction after November 28, 2016, rooms hold no more than 2 residents. | B | 2025-05-10 |
| 2025-04-10 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2025-05-10 |
| 2024-08-09 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2024-08-29 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0911 | Ensure resident rooms hold no more than 4 residents; for new construction after November 28, 2016, rooms hold no more than 2 residents. | B | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-18 | Health | F0912 | Provide rooms that are at least 80 square feet per resident in multiple rooms and 100 square feet for single resident rooms. | B | 2024-05-02 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-05-23 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0576 | Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods. | D | 2024-03-05 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-03-05 |
| 2023-09-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-10-10 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0836 | Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-06-15 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-06-15 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
7| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMPERIAL MANOR SKILLED NURSING INC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STRONG, JOHN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VALLE-PARDE, MILAGROS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| VALLE-PARDE, MILAGROS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-12 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN STRONG | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MILAGROS VALLE-PARDE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-12 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MILAGROS VALLE-PARDE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — CA snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 0 | $739 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | fmr | 0 | $939 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 1 | $770 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | fmr | 1 | $1,038 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,037 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | fmr | 2 | $1,362 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,294 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | fmr | 3 | $1,845 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,661 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | fmr | 4 | $2,285 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,426 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06025 | acs median gross | $1,056 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06025 | acs recent mover gross | $1,036 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 92251 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92251 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,094 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92251 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,667 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92251 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,746 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 92251 | acs median gross | $1,242 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,353 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,107 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | safmr | 0 | $1,230 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,496 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,224 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | safmr | 1 | $1,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,969 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,611 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | safmr | 2 | $1,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,662 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,178 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | safmr | 3 | $2,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 92251 | safmr | 4 | $3,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.