Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,551–4,600

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4551	VILLAGES HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER, THE	2.4%	73.0	A	FL	LADY LAKE	120	COPPER FL TRUST II
4552	SUNSET MANOR CONV HOSP	2.4%	73.0	B	CA	EL MONTE	81	SUN MAR MANAGEMENT SERVICES
4553	Eastgate Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	73.0	B	RI	East Providence	60	HEALTH CONCEPTS LTD
4554	HANCOCK PARK REHABILIATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.4%	73.0	B	MA	QUINCY	142	BANE CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
4555	SAN GABRIEL CONV CENTER	2.4%	73.0	C	CA	ROSEMEAD	151	THE AARON FRIEDMAN GROUP A BUSINESS ASSETS TRUST
4556	WESTERWOOD REHABILITATION	2.4%	73.0	C	OH	COLUMBUS	75	UNITED CHURCH HOMES MANAGEMENT INC
4557	AVANTARA IPSWICH	2.4%	73.0	F	SD	IPSWICH	40	—
4558	MOSHOLU PARKWAY NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	73.0	A	NY	BRONX	122	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
4559	DESOTO HEALTH AND REHAB	2.4%	73.0	A	FL	ARCADIA	78	—
4560	HESSMER NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	73.0	A	LA	HESSMER	92	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4561	Lone Tree Health Care Center Inc	2.4%	73.0	A	IA	Lone Tree	44	—
4562	BRIARFIELD AT ASHLEY CIRCLE	2.4%	73.0	B	OH	YOUNGSTOWN	74	EDM MANAGEMENT INC
4563	Hillcrest Shadow Lake LLC	2.4%	73.0	D	NE	Papillion	114	—
4564	MS CARE CENTER OF GREENVILLE	2.4%	73.0	B	MS	GREENVILLE	90	—
4565	GABLES CARE CENTER INC	2.4%	73.0	A	OH	HOPEDALE	86	CAPITAL HEALTH SERVICES INC
4566	WOODBRIDGE CARE CENTER AND REHAB	2.4%	73.0	A	FL	TAMPA	120	FL SNF TRUST I
4567	MONTROSE HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.4%	73.0	A	CA	MONTROSE	59	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4568	NEW VANDERBILT REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER, INC	2.4%	73.0	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	320	—
4569	DOWNTOWN BROOKLYN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	73.0	B	NY	BROOKLYN	320	—
4570	VAIDEN COMMUNITY LIVING CENTER	2.4%	72.8	A	MS	VAIDEN	60	COMMUNITY ELDERCARE SERVICES LLC
4571	Spring Valley Post Acute LLC	2.4%	72.8	C	CA	Victorville	126	MERIDIAN MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4572	HOOSIER HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	2.4%	72.8	C	IN	BROWNSTOWN	97	CARDON AND ASSOCIATES INC
4573	CIRCLE OF CARE	2.4%	72.8	B	OH	SALEM	55	—
4574	AVIATA AT BRYAN DAIRY	2.4%	72.8	F	FL	LARGO	158	—
4575	APPLE REHAB ROCKY HILL	2.4%	72.8	F	CT	ROCKY HILL	120	—
4576	ST FRANCIS HOME	2.4%	72.8	A	MN	BRECKENRIDGE	80	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
4577	PETERSON PARK HEALTH CARE CTR	2.4%	72.8	F	IL	CHICAGO	196	—
4578	Harlan Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.4%	72.8	B	KY	Harlan	143	SEKY HOLDING CO
4579	MAYFLOWER CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	A	CA	EL MONTE	59	FRIEDMAN FAMILY TRUST
4580	PUTNAM RIDGE	2.4%	72.8	B	NY	BREWSTER	160	—
4581	BRIA OF WESTMONT	2.4%	72.8	C	IL	WESTMONT	215	—
4582	OAKLAND PARK COMMUNITIES, INC.	2.4%	72.8	D	MN	THIEF RIVER FALLS	35	—
4583	LUTHERAN VILLAGE AT WOLFCREEK	2.4%	72.8	B	OH	HOLLAND	67	—
4584	OZARK NURSING AND CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	D	MO	OZARK	93	—
4585	LEXINGTON PARK NURSING & POST ACUTE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	A	KS	TOPEKA	90	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
4586	CYPRESS POINT NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.4%	72.8	B	LA	BOSSIER CITY	142	CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
4587	COVINGTON SKILLED NURSING & REHAB CENTER	2.4%	72.8	B	OH	EAST PALESTINE	65	—
4588	WOLCOTT HALL NURSING CENTER INC	2.4%	72.8	C	CT	TORRINGTON	60	—
4589	CARRIAGE INN OF CADIZ INC	2.4%	72.8	C	OH	CADIZ	70	BROWN & MURPHY HOLDING COMPANY INC
4590	MISSION PALMS HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	B	CA	WESTMINSTER	99	ASPEN SKILLED HEALTHCARE INC
4591	PALM GARDEN OF PINELLAS	2.4%	72.8	B	FL	LARGO	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4592	White Oak of Waxhaw	2.4%	72.8	A	NC	Waxhaw	100	WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT INC
4593	AVANTE AT LEESBURG, INC	2.4%	72.8	A	FL	LEESBURG	116	AG HOLDINGS INC
4594	ADVANCED HEALTH CARE OF OVERLAND PARK	2.4%	72.8	C	KS	OVERLAND PARK	38	THE GAIL MILLER GST TRUST
4595	Norlite Nursing Center	2.4%	72.8	B	MI	Marquette	99	—
4596	BELLEAIR HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	A	FL	CLEARWATER	120	CLEAR CHOICE HEALTH CARE LLC
4597	PARKWOOD HEALTH CARE FACILITY	2.4%	72.8	A	AL	PHENIX CITY	74	CROWNE MANAGEMENT LLC
4598	Oakridge Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation Center L	2.4%	72.8	D	MI	Ferndale	64	—
4599	VERMILION HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.4%	72.8	A	LA	KAPLAN	120	—
4600	The Guest House Care Center	2.4%	72.8	C	LA	BATON ROUGE	104	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC

Showing 4,551–4,600 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.