Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

4,501–4,550

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4501	GARDEN CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.3	B	NY	FRANKLIN SQUARE	150	—
4502	VALLEY VIEW CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.3	D	CO	CANON CITY	60	QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
4503	WETUMPKA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, LLC	2.5%	73.3	A	AL	WETUMPKA	121	JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
4504	CARRINGTON, LLC D/B/A THE CARRINGTON	2.5%	73.3	A	MS	STARKVILLE	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4505	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING GERALD	2.5%	73.3	F	MO	GERALD	60	—
4506	Fisher Senior Care and Rehabilitation	2.5%	73.3	B	MI	Mayville	53	NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS LLC
4507	OAK MANOR HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.3	C	FL	LARGO	180	—
4508	APERION CARE WILMINGTON	2.5%	73.3	C	IL	WILMINGTON	171	FREDERICK S FRANKEL TRUST
4509	WESTCHESTER VILLAGE OF LENEXA	2.5%	73.3	A	KS	LENEXA	34	WSG LLC
4510	CARE ONE AT HOLYOKE	2.5%	73.3	A	MA	HOLYOKE	164	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
4511	Pavilion Health Center at Brightmore	2.5%	73.3	B	NC	Charlotte	108	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4512	LEGACY NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF POLLOCK	2.5%	73.3	A	LA	POLLOCK	103	—
4513	DEVEREUX SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.3	C	MA	MARBLEHEAD	64	—
4514	FOSTER HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	2.5%	73.3	D	IL	CHICAGO	46	—
4515	VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.5%	73.3	C	CA	BAKERSFIELD	87	—
4516	BAINBRIDGE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.3	A	NY	BRONX	200	ISAAC E GOLDBRENNER ESTATE
4517	LIBERTY NURSING CENTER OF MANSFIELD	2.5%	73.3	B	OH	MANSFIELD	68	—
4518	NORTH MOUNTAIN MEDICAL AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.3	A	AZ	PHOENIX	164	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
4519	NORTH CENTRAL CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.3	C	WA	SPOKANE	99	HYATT FAMILY FACILITIES LLC
4520	La Bella of Aurora	2.5%	73.2	F	IL	AURORA	68	—
4521	PLACE AT DEANS BRIDGE, THE	2.5%	73.2	B	GA	AUGUSTA	100	—
4522	FUTURE CARE CAPITAL REGION	2.5%	73.2	A	MD	LANDOVER	150	CARLYN ALEXANDRA ATTMAN 2005 TRUST
4523	AVENUE AT AURORA	2.5%	73.2	C	OH	AURORA	98	PROGRESSIVE QUALITY CARE INC
4524	HERITAGE HALL WISE	2.5%	73.2	A	VA	WISE	97	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
4525	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - LARIMORE	2.5%	73.2	C	ND	LARIMORE	40	SANFORD
4526	Market Square Health Care Center, LLC	2.5%	73.2	B	ME	SOUTH PARIS	76	—
4527	Dr Ronald E McNair Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	2.5%	73.2	B	SC	Lake City	88	—
4528	Chatham Hills Subacute Care Center	2.5%	73.2	B	NJ	CHATHAM	108	—
4529	SILVER LAKE SPECIALIZED REHAB AND CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.1	C	NY	STATEN ISLAND	278	—
4530	Ridgewood Terrace Health and Rehabilitation Center	2.5%	73.1	A	KY	Madisonville	110	JAMES LOWRY FAMILY IRRV TR
4531	GREENTREE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.1	B	CT	WATERFORD	90	—
4532	PALM GARDEN OF PORT SAINT LUCIE	2.5%	73.1	A	FL	PORT SAINT LUCIE	120	PALM GARDEN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
4533	CARE ONE AT LOWELL	2.5%	73.1	A	MA	LOWELL	160	HEALTHBRIDGE MANAGEMENT LLC
4534	RENAISSANCE HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	2.5%	73.1	A	PA	PHILADELPHIA	123	NATIONWIDE HEALTHCARE SERVICES
4535	North Woods Nursing Center	2.5%	73.1	A	MI	Farwell	71	PEPLINKSI HOLDINGS INC
4536	OHMAN FAMILY LIVING AT HOLLY	2.5%	73.1	A	OH	NEWBURY	92	—
4537	Kennybrook Village	2.5%	73.1	B	IA	Grimes	40	WSG LLC
4538	THE NICHOLS CENTER	2.5%	73.1	B	MS	MADISON	60	BRIAR HILL MANAGEMENT LLC
4539	OUR LADYS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	2.5%	73.1	C	NJ	PLEASANTVILLE	214	—
4540	Good Samaritan Society - Syracuse	2.5%	73.1	C	NE	Syracuse	88	SANFORD
4541	GREENSPRING VILLAGE	2.5%	73.1	B	VA	SPRINGFIELD	62	ERICKSON SENIOR LIVING LLC
4542	SAINTS JOACHIM & ANNE NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	2.5%	73.1	B	NY	BROOKLYN	200	—
4543	HILLSBORO HOUSE NURSING HOME	2.5%	73.1	C	NH	HILLSBORO	33	—
4544	Oskaloosa Care Center	2.5%	73.1	B	IA	Oskaloosa	83	—
4545	BRIGHTON CARE CENTER	2.5%	73.1	C	CA	PASADENA	99	—
4546	CLOVERDALE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	2.5%	73.1	A	AL	SCOTTSBORO	141	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
4547	Mission Point Nursing & Physical Rehabilitation Ce	2.5%	73.1	C	MI	Holly	66	—
4548	LEGACY GARDEN REHABILITATION & LIVING CENTER	2.5%	73.1	F	NE	PENDER	42	—
4549	ORONO COMMONS	2.5%	73.1	B	ME	ORONO	80	—
4550	NORTHRIDGE HEALTH CENTER, THE	2.4%	73.0	B	OH	NORTH RIDGEVILLE	96	—

Showing 4,501–4,550 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.