Reads as: riskier than 2.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REGIONS BANK
63 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.52
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.25
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.63
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
116.7
3.52
0.41
0.52
2.60
3.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
116.8
3.36
0.39
0.50
2.47
3.13
0.0%
2025Q2
91
116.3
3.28
0.37
0.53
2.38
2.86
0.0%
2025Q1
90
114.0
3.41
0.34
0.60
2.47
3.06
0.0%
2024Q4
92
114.2
3.40
0.26
0.66
2.47
2.98
0.0%
2024Q3
92
116.7
3.24
0.24
0.68
2.33
2.84
0.0%
2024Q2
91
114.4
3.13
0.16
0.65
2.32
2.75
0.0%
2024Q1
91
116.5
2.98
0.15
0.67
2.16
2.62
0.0%
2023Q4
92
114.8
3.12
0.11
0.68
2.32
2.86
0.0%
2023Q3
92
114.7
2.79
0.08
0.66
2.05
2.57
0.0%
2023Q2
91
113.2
2.50
0.11
0.70
1.69
2.16
0.0%
2023Q1
90
113.8
2.72
0.11
0.72
1.88
2.53
0.0%
2022Q4
92
114.7
2.90
0.11
0.84
1.94
2.65
0.0%
2022Q2
91
110.9
2.90
0.12
0.90
1.88
2.72
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
C × 1D × 10E × 3F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
F
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
C
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-11
2023-12-07
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2024-01-11
2019-04-25
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2019-05-23
2019-04-25
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2019-05-23
2019-04-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-05-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NHS OPERATIONS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ESTES, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
89%
2002-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2002-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
ALGARIN, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-07
current
pecos_ownership
ALGARIN, LISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
BAGGETT, BRYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
BERKADIA COMMERCIAL MORTGAGE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2006-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2011-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
RICHBURG, JULIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2014-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2002-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA ALGARIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2022-12-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-07-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-07-01
ended 2021-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
WETUMPKA HEALTH REALTY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
JULIE RICHBURG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
33%
2014-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
33%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN BAGGETT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA ALGARIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$6,210,651
—
$693,258
—
$4,699,017
3
propco
2024-06-30
$1,536,526
—
$629,667
—
—
3
propco
2023-06-30
$5,719,004
—
$625,901
—
$4,215,958
3
propco
2022-06-30
$6,009,643
—
$562,486
—
$4,422,183
3
propco
2021-06-30
$1,446,995
—
$555,821
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01051
fmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01051
acs median gross
1
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01051
fmr
1
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01051
acs median gross
2
$1,023
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01051
fmr
2
$1,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01051
acs median gross
3
$1,145
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01051
fmr
3
$1,304
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01051
acs median gross
4
$1,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01051
fmr
4
$1,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01051
acs median gross
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01051
acs recent mover gross
$1,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs median gross
1
$1,000
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs median gross
2
$1,000
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs median gross
3
$1,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs median gross
4
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs median gross
$1,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36092
acs recent mover gross
$1,096
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36092
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 110
3
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 90
3
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
safmr
3
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 110
4
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
payment standard 90
4
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36092
safmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.