Reads as: riskier than 47.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
MILLER DANIEL
14 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
MILLER DANIEL
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
OH median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.14
3.24
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.73
3.11
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.30
3.29
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.7
3.14
0.32
0.85
1.97
2.73
0.0%
2025Q3
92
62.4
3.18
0.30
0.82
2.06
2.79
0.0%
2025Q2
91
60.8
3.45
0.33
0.91
2.21
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
59.3
3.47
0.36
0.86
2.25
3.24
0.0%
2024Q4
92
58.9
3.48
0.35
0.84
2.30
3.29
0.0%
2024Q3
92
61.8
3.56
0.37
0.84
2.34
3.40
0.0%
2024Q2
91
65.3
3.36
0.36
0.87
2.13
3.18
0.0%
2024Q1
91
66.0
3.28
0.40
0.82
2.07
3.13
0.0%
2023Q4
92
65.3
3.40
0.38
0.81
2.22
3.24
0.0%
2023Q3
92
71.1
2.95
0.35
0.72
1.89
2.79
0.0%
2023Q2
91
66.6
3.12
0.35
0.85
1.92
2.93
0.9%
2023Q1
90
65.5
3.26
0.40
0.85
2.00
3.16
2.5%
2022Q4
92
68.1
2.85
0.41
0.80
1.64
2.82
6.2%
2022Q3
92
63.5
2.87
0.42
0.82
1.63
2.84
5.1%
2022Q2
91
69.2
2.58
0.40
0.74
1.44
2.39
6.2%
2022Q1
90
68.6
2.51
0.40
0.61
1.50
2.28
0.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
B × 1D × 7F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-25
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-10-03
2025-09-25
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-10-03
2025-09-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-10-03
2023-12-09
Health · complaint
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
F
2023-06-30
2023-07-21
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-08-01
2023-03-02
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-03-28
2020-02-06
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2020-03-19
2020-02-06
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
B
2020-02-14
2020-02-06
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2020-03-19
2020-02-06
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2020-03-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ASHLEY CIRCLE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLEY CIRCLE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
REESE, DIANE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, EDWARD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, ALLISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY FACILITY REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, CHERYL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, PATRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-12
current
pecos_ownership
COX, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DIANE J. REESE FAMILY TRUST I
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDM MANAGEMENT, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDWARD J. REESE FAMILY TRUST I
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
HACKNEY, DANA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-19
current
pecos_ownership
HILL, BARTH & KING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JORDAN, KHALILIAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-08-24
current
pecos_ownership
MACKIE, AMANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEARCH, BENJAMIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-11
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, DIANE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, DIANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, EDWARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-13
current
pecos_ownership
REESE, EDWARD
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
RIVERA, AMANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-12-16
current
pecos_ownership
RUPEKA, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE PNC FINANCIAL SERVICES GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2010-12-29
current
pecos_ownership
WEM & ASSOCIATES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
YOUNG, SHANNON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-05-15
current
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY CIRCLE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLEY CIRCLE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ASHLEY CIRCLE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
50%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DIANE REESE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANE REESE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2004-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD REESE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2004-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD REESE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON ANDERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA MACKIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA RIVERA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-12-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN PEARCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERYL BROWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANA HACKNEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL MILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANE REESE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD REESE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD REESE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER COX
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH WHITE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KHALILIAH JORDAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA COLLINS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT RUPEKA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON YOUNG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$531,883
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$497,678
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$497,632
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$522,534
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$579,269
—
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 39099
acs median gross
0
$595
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
0
$735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
1
$652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
1
$771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
2
$823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
3
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
4
$988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
fmr
4
$1,345
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 39099
acs median gross
5
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
acs median gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 39099
acs recent mover gross
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
0
$639
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
1
$681
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
2
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
3
$873
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
4
$1,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs median gross
$792
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 44515
acs recent mover gross
$861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 44515
payment standard 110
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 90
0
$657
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
safmr
0
$730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 110
3
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 90
3
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
safmr
3
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 110
4
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
payment standard 90
4
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 44515
safmr
4
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.