Composite
94.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 82.9 | 79.8 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 24.87 | in index |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | 95.8 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 23.95 | in index |
| chow risk | 84.3 | 62.6 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 12.65 | in index |
| financial risk | 30.3 | 34.0 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 9.09 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 80.2 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 34.0 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 79.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 93.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 73.4 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 23.1 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 36.8 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.7 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 79.7 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 95.8 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.46 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.25 | +0.16 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 5.00 | +0.50 | |
| Occupancy | 0.86 | -0.45 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.25 | +0.40 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.25 | 2.41 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 1.95 | 2.24 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.37 | 2.49 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 79.6 | 2.25 | 0.24 | 0.53 | 1.48 | 1.95 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 73.1 | 2.50 | 0.28 | 0.65 | 1.57 | 2.19 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 65.8 | 2.29 | 0.13 | 0.71 | 1.45 | 1.97 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.0 | 2.27 | 0.13 | 0.82 | 1.32 | 1.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 69.5 | 2.11 | 0.23 | 0.67 | 1.22 | 1.77 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 67.5 | 2.56 | 0.30 | 0.69 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 67.4 | 2.51 | 0.31 | 0.66 | 1.54 | 2.32 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 68.2 | 2.51 | 0.31 | 0.67 | 1.53 | 2.38 | 2.1% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 67.0 | 2.51 | 0.30 | 0.73 | 1.48 | 2.29 | 20.2% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 72.7 | 2.14 | 0.16 | 0.59 | 1.38 | 2.01 | 16.9% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 72.4 | 2.02 | 0.27 | 0.51 | 1.24 | 1.88 | 12.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 71.7 | 1.96 | 0.35 | 0.46 | 1.15 | 1.78 | 2.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 70.3 | 2.12 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 1.23 | 1.84 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 69.0 | 1.92 | 0.41 | 0.29 | 1.22 | 1.82 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 69.1 | 2.08 | 0.42 | 0.53 | 1.13 | 2.05 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-30 | Fine | $32,911 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-07-30 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-03-06 | Fine | $15,646 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-03-11 |
| 2026-03-02 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2026-03-11 |
| 2026-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2026-02-27 |
| 2026-01-22 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | E | 2026-02-27 |
| 2025-12-12 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2025-11-14 |
| 2025-06-03 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2025-05-02 |
| 2025-03-20 | Health · complaint | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | E | 2025-05-02 |
| 2024-12-12 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-12 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-12-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-01-10 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health · complaint | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2024-10-27 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2024-10-27 |
| 2024-09-12 | Health · complaint | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | F | 2024-10-27 |
| 2024-07-30 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2024-09-13 |
| 2024-07-30 | Health · complaint | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2024-09-13 |
| 2024-03-06 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | J | 2024-02-20 |
| 2023-10-24 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-10-10 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2023-10-23 |
| 2023-07-10 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-24 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-08-24 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0678 | Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | F | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2023-05-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2023-06-26 |
| 2020-01-09 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2020-02-22 |
| 2020-01-09 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2020-02-22 |
| 2020-01-09 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | E | 2020-02-22 |
| 2020-01-09 | Health | F0923 | Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both. | F | 2020-02-22 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKER, SUMMER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| EBG HEALTH CARE IV, INC. | 5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOURLEY, EWING | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| EWING GOURLEY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SUMMER BAKER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2017-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE | — | — | — | 90 | NBH2 MGOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | AVENIR AT MARK TWAIN | — | — | — | 120 | NBH1 MTOPCO LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ARBOR HILLS CARE & REHAB CENTER | — | — | — | 150 | ARBOR HILLS HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2025-10-01 | ASCEND AT AURORA | — | — | — | 125 | NBH3 SFOPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | HUBBLE CREEK | — | — | — | 105 | HUBBLE CREEK LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 67 | HIDDEN LAKE HEALTH CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | PINE GROVE MANOR | — | — | — | 77 | PINE GROVE MANOR LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 119 | MONARCH SPRINGS WELLNESS & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE | — | — | — | 87 | ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING NEW FLORENCE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 153 | SOUTH COUNTY HEALTH CARE CENTER, L.L.C. |
| 2025-02-01 | ARBOR VIEW NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | FORREST OPCO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | AMBERWOOD ESTATES NURSING AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 115 | ISLAND HC OPERATIONS LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 0 | $802 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | fmr | 0 | $877 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 1 | $768 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | fmr | 1 | $883 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 2 | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | fmr | 2 | $1,095 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,304 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | fmr | 3 | $1,498 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,586 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | fmr | 4 | $1,701 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,418 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 29043 | acs median gross | $1,058 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 29043 | acs recent mover gross | $1,237 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65721 | acs median gross | 1 | $927 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65721 | acs median gross | 2 | $908 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65721 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,409 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65721 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,660 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 65721 | acs median gross | $1,097 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 65721 | acs recent mover gross | $1,370 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,012 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $828 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | safmr | 0 | $920 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | safmr | 1 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,265 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | safmr | 2 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,727 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,413 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | safmr | 3 | $1,570 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,969 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,611 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 65721 | safmr | 4 | $1,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |