Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,451–4,500

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4451	LAKEWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB, LLC	0.4%	70.7	B	AR	NORTH LITTLE ROCK	85	—
4452	Accordius Health at Rose Manor LLC	0.4%	70.7	A	NC	Durham	111	—
4453	Aurora On France	0.4%	70.7	A	MN	EDINA	65	EBENEZER MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4454	MORTON BAKAR CENTER	0.4%	70.7	A	CA	HAYWARD	97	—
4455	PREFERRED CARE AT HAMILTON	0.4%	70.7	D	NJ	HAMILTON SQUARE	126	—
4456	Cummings Health Care Facility	0.4%	70.7	A	ME	HOWLAND	34	—
4457	RIVERWALK VILLAGE	0.4%	70.7	C	IN	NOBLESVILLE	169	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
4458	ESSEX CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE	0.4%	70.7	B	NY	ELIZABETHTOWN	100	—
4459	KRUSE VILLAGE SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.4%	70.7	B	TX	BRENHAM	65	DIMENSIONS HEALTH STRATEGIES CORPORATION
4460	BILLINGS CLINIC TCU	0.4%	70.7	—	MT	BILLINGS	15	—
4461	BAYOU CHATEAU NURSING CTR	0.4%	70.7	A	LA	SIMMESPORT	104	—
4462	PROVIDENCE MOUNT ST VINCENT	0.4%	70.7	D	WA	SEATTLE	215	PROVIDENCE HEALTH & SERVICES WASHINGTON
4463	Pocola Health and Rehab	0.4%	70.7	F	OK	Pocola	90	—
4464	CARILLON NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.7	C	NY	HUNTINGTON	315	—
4465	Woodcrest Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	70.7	A	KY	Elsmere	127	—
4466	OAKS NURSING HOME, INC, THE	0.4%	70.7	A	GA	MARSHALLVILLE	60	—
4467	Atlantic Specialty Care	0.4%	70.7	C	IA	Atlantic	90	CARE INITIATIVES
4468	HERITAGE AT TURNER PARK HEALTH & REHAB	0.4%	70.7	C	TX	GRAND PRAIRIE	0	STEPHENS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4469	SEMINARY MANOR	0.4%	70.7	B	IL	GALESBURG	121	UNLIMITED DEVELOPMENT INC
4470	SPRING CREEK HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.4%	70.7	B	NJ	PERTH AMBOY	179	—
4471	ASPEN POINT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	70.7	F	MO	SAINT CHARLES	180	VHS MO OPCO HOLDINGS LLC
4472	Trinity Care Center	0.4%	70.7	A	MN	FARMINGTON	80	ST FRANCIS HEALTH SERVICES OF MORRIS INC
4473	PARKVILLE CARE CENTER	0.4%	70.7	A	CT	HARTFORD	150	—
4474	Oakridge Nursing Center	0.4%	70.7	C	OK	Durant	104	—
4475	DAUGHTERS OF MIRIAM CENTER FOR NURSING & REHABILIT	0.4%	70.7	C	OH	BEACHWOOD	233	—
4476	Lakes At Litchfield	0.4%	70.7	A	SC	Pawleys Island	24	MAXWELL GROUP INC
4477	SHIELDS NURSING CENTER	0.4%	70.7	B	CA	EL CERRITO	45	—
4478	Sedgewood Manor Health Care Center	0.4%	70.7	B	SC	Hopkins	38	—
4479	Pendleton Manor	0.4%	70.7	B	WV	FRANKLIN	89	—
4480	Parkdale Health and Rehab	0.4%	70.7	B	UT	Price	58	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
4481	HOBART NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.4%	70.7	C	OK	HOBART	58	QUALITY CARE GIVERS INC
4482	APPLE REHAB UNCASVILLE	0.4%	70.7	F	CT	UNCASVILLE	130	—
4483	MADISON POST ACUTE	0.4%	70.7	D	WA	EVERETT	59	—
4484	Fieldstone of Dewitt	0.4%	70.7	A	IA	De Witt	70	WESLEYLIFE
4485	VILLA VISTA ROYALE LLC	0.4%	70.7	A	OH	STEUBENVILLE	54	—
4486	HAVEN NURSING CENTER	0.4%	70.7	A	LA	COLUMBIA	99	—
4487	MONTGOMERY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.7	C	NY	MONTGOMERY	100	—
4488	BERTRAND NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	70.7	B	MO	BERTRAND	60	—
4489	HOLDEN MANOR HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.4%	70.7	C	MO	HOLDEN	52	MO OP HOLDCO LLC
4490	LAWRENCE NURSING CARE CENTER, INC	0.4%	70.7	C	NY	ARVERNE	200	—
4491	DEERFIELD BEACH HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	70.7	C	FL	POMPANO BEACH	194	CONSULTING SUPPORT SERVICES LLC
4492	Fall Creek Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.4%	70.7	C	TX	Humble	0	LTC HOUSTON MANAGEMENT LLC
4493	LAS VENTANAS RETIREMENT COMM SNF	0.4%	70.7	A	NV	LAS VEGAS	60	HUMANGOOD
4494	INTEGRITY HC OF COBDEN	0.4%	70.7	A	IL	COBDEN	74	—
4495	ALLURE OF STOCKTON	0.4%	70.7	A	IL	STOCKTON	49	MN1 MANAGEMENT CORP
4496	AVONDALE ESTATES OF ELGIN	0.4%	70.7	A	IL	ELGIN	120	—
4497	HARBOURS EDGE	0.4%	70.7	C	FL	DELRAY BEACH	54	LIFESPACE COMMUNITIES INC
4498	Pioneer Valley Living And Rehab	0.4%	70.3	D	IA	Sergeant Bluff	66	—
4499	QUEENS NASSAU REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	70.3	A	NY	FAR ROCKAWAY	200	—
4500	CARECORE AT THE MEADOWS	0.4%	70.3	B	OH	CINCINNATI	97	—

Showing 4,451–4,500 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.