Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,301–4,350

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4301	YORKTOWN REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.9	A	NY	CORTLANDT MANOR	200	—
4302	WINDSOR MISSION OAKS	0.4%	71.9	A	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4303	ENCORE AT TURF VALLEY	0.4%	71.9	B	MD	ELLICOTT CITY	91	—
4304	ST. JOSEPH'S HOSPITAL	0.4%	71.9	A	WV	BUCKHANNON	16	WEST VIRGINIA UNITED HEALTH SYSTEM INC
4305	OZARK RIVERVIEW MANOR	0.4%	71.9	C	MO	OZARK	90	WILLOW HEALTH CARE INC
4306	NORTHWEST LOUISIANA VETERANS HOME	0.4%	71.9	A	LA	BOSSIER CITY	8	—
4307	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT SOUTHGATE	0.4%	71.9	B	NJ	CARNEYS POINT	152	—
4308	WURZBACH NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.9	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	CARA CAPITAL LLC
4309	SKY VIEW NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.9	A	WI	HURLEY	33	—
4310	ST GENEVIEVE NURSING	0.4%	71.9	B	MO	SAINTE GENEVIEVE	90	GC ASSET MANAGEMENT LLC
4311	OTTERBEIN AT GRANVILLE	0.4%	71.6	A	OH	GRANVILLE	22	OTTERBEIN HOME
4312	HUNT NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.4%	71.6	B	MA	DANVERS	120	INTEGRITUS HEALTHCARE INC
4313	Holly Hill House	0.4%	71.6	C	LA	Sulphur	200	—
4314	ST FRANCIS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION & HEALTHCARE	0.4%	71.6	C	PA	DARBY	273	—
4315	NORWALK CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.6	C	CT	NORWALK	150	—
4316	Absolut Center for Nursing and Rehabilitation at A	0.4%	71.6	C	NY	EAST AURORA	320	ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT LLC
4317	AVENIR AT MAPLE GROVE	0.4%	71.6	C	MO	LOUISIANA	90	KRPSS PARTNERS
4318	GREENTREE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.6	B	CT	WATERFORD	90	—
4319	ST ANTHONY CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.6	B	CA	HAYWARD	30	—
4320	Bear Mountain Health and Rehabilitation	0.4%	71.6	B	NC	Asheville	77	—
4321	SUNSET HOME	0.4%	71.6	C	MO	MAYSVILLE	60	LTC MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
4322	PINE HAVEN HOME	0.4%	71.6	B	NY	PHILMONT	128	—
4323	Good Shepherd Lutheran Home	0.4%	71.6	C	NE	Blair	84	—
4324	DOUGLAS JACOBSON STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME	0.4%	71.6	A	FL	PORT CHARLOTTE	120	FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
4325	Sunset Rehabilitation and Health Care	0.4%	71.6	B	IL	CANTON	115	—
4326	Marywood Nursing Care Center	0.4%	71.6	B	MI	Livonia	103	FELICIAN SERVICES INC
4327	LINWOOD VILLAGE NURSING & RETIREMENT APTS	0.4%	71.6	B	OK	CUSHING	67	RIVERS EDGE OPERATIONS LLC
4328	NEW HORIZONS LIMESTONE	0.4%	71.6	A	GA	GAINESVILLE	142	—
4329	ANOKA REHABILITATION AND LIVING CENTER	0.4%	71.6	B	MN	ANOKA	120	VOLUNTEERS OF AMERICA NATIONAL SERVICES
4330	Meridian Care of Hebbronville	0.4%	71.6	B	TX	Hebbronville	60	—
4331	ADDOLORATA VILLA	0.4%	71.6	D	IL	WHEELING	86	—
4332	ST ANNES NURSING CENTER, ST ANNES RESIDENCE INC	0.4%	71.6	B	FL	MIAMI	213	ARCHDIOCESE OF MIAMI INC
4333	AVIATA AT SAINT LUCIE	0.4%	71.6	D	FL	FORT PIERCE	171	—
4334	GRAND RIVER HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.6	A	CO	RIFLE	57	—
4335	SILVER HEIGHTS SKILLED NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.6	B	CO	CASTLE ROCK	91	MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
4336	Warrenton Woods of Journey LLC	0.4%	71.6	C	GA	WARRENTON	110	SELECTIS HEALTH INC
4337	ACCLAIM REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.6	C	NJ	JERSEY CITY	183	—
4338	DURGIN PINES	0.4%	71.6	C	ME	KITTERY	81	—
4339	The Orchards at Wayne	0.4%	71.6	C	MI	Wayne	179	—
4340	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF MIDWAY	0.4%	71.6	B	GA	MIDWAY	169	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
4341	NORMANDY MANOR OF ROCKY RIVER	0.4%	71.6	C	OH	ROCKY RIVER	150	—
4342	MISSION PINES NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	71.6	B	NV	NORTH LAS VEGAS	240	—
4343	Holland Home - Raybrook Manor	0.4%	71.6	A	MI	Grand Rapids	101	CONCEPT REHAB INC
4344	The Cedars of Chapel Hill	0.4%	71.6	A	NC	Chapel Hill	12	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
4345	Cornerstone Nsg & Rehab Center	0.4%	71.6	A	MN	BAGLEY	47	—
4346	VILLA HEALTH CARE EAST	0.4%	71.6	A	IL	SHERMAN	109	HERITAGE OPERATIONS GROUP LLC
4347	APPLE VALLEY VILLAGE HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.6	A	MN	APPLE VALLEY	162	CASSIA
4348	Market Square Health Care Center, LLC	0.4%	71.6	B	ME	SOUTH PARIS	76	—
4349	ROSE CITY NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.6	A	OR	PORTLAND	55	—
4350	AVIR AT BELLVILLE	0.4%	71.6	A	TX	BELLVILLE	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD

Showing 4,301–4,350 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.