Reads as: riskier than 28.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
11
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
33 chains
WELLTOWER OP LLC
147 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
FREUND NOCHUM
109 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
28 chains
TRAVITSKY AARON
106 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM
100 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
DAGAN AMITAI
101 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
27 chains
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
102 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
TRAVITSKY AARON
153 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC
111 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
GANN KODY
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
26 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.23
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.00
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.32
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
47.5
2.23
0.24
0.55
1.44
2.00
31.9%
2025Q3
92
44.0
2.25
0.27
0.54
1.45
2.22
0.0%
2025Q2
91
44.2
2.67
0.24
0.55
1.87
2.53
28.0%
2025Q1
90
44.6
2.49
0.27
0.51
1.71
2.45
33.5%
2024Q4
92
44.4
1.76
0.07
0.60
1.08
1.68
25.6%
2024Q3
92
46.3
1.70
0.02
0.49
1.19
1.46
34.6%
2024Q2
91
41.8
1.42
0.02
0.47
0.93
1.37
13.4%
2024Q1
91
39.6
1.57
0.02
0.59
0.95
1.45
17.2%
2023Q4
92
38.6
1.51
0.01
0.57
0.93
1.55
10.4%
2023Q3
92
38.3
1.64
0.01
0.61
1.02
1.65
22.1%
2023Q1
90
38.2
1.39
0.01
0.63
0.75
1.35
26.2%
2022Q4
92
40.0
1.87
0.10
0.63
1.15
1.95
41.8%
2022Q3
92
37.8
2.06
0.06
0.66
1.34
2.13
47.2%
2022Q2
91
17.9
4.32
0.07
1.63
2.63
4.79
35.2%
2022Q1
90
17.3
5.72
0.41
2.01
3.30
5.43
24.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
31
D × 17E × 11F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0940
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program for all new and existing staff members.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0941
Develop, implement, and/or maintain an effective training program that includes effective communications for direct care staff members.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0944
Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0945
Include as part of its infection prevention and control program, mandatory training that includes written standards, policies, and procedures for the program.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0946
Provide training in compliance and ethics.
E
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
D
2025-04-10
2025-03-21
Health
F0949
Provide behavior health training consistent with the requirements and as determined by a facility assessment.
E
2025-04-10
2024-01-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
E
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-02-01
2024-01-26
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-02-01
2022-11-23
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2022-12-19
2022-11-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-12-19
2022-11-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-12-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
22
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
106 N BARON OPCO LLC
—
—
2025-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
106 N BARON OPCO, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
106 N BARON OPCO, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
106 N BARON PROPERTY OWNER, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOSSE, DON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAGAN, AMITAI
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
FREUND, NOCHUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GANN, KODY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDBERGER, ABRAHAM
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
—
—
2025-06-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
NICHOLS, AMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRAVITSKY, AARON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER NNN GROUP, LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER OP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
100%
2025-03-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
KODY GANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2020-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON TRAVITSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY NICHOLS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DON BOSSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOCHUM FREUND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1
—
—
—
—
0
—
2023-09-30
$1
—
—
—
—
0
—
2022-09-30
$1
—
—
—
—
0
—
2022-05-31
$62,040
$62,040
—
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$148,897
$148,897
—
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$146,766
$146,766
—
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48015
fmr
0
$885
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48015
fmr
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48015
acs median gross
2
$1,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48015
fmr
2
$1,095
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48015
acs median gross
3
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48015
fmr
3
$1,523
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48015
acs median gross
4
$2,275
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48015
fmr
4
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48015
acs median gross
$1,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48015
acs recent mover gross
$1,555
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77418
acs median gross
1
$612
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77418
acs median gross
2
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77418
acs median gross
3
$1,568
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77418
acs median gross
$1,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 77418
acs recent mover gross
$1,604
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 77418
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 110
1
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 90
1
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
safmr
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 110
2
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 90
2
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
safmr
2
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 110
3
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 90
3
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
safmr
3
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 77418
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.