Reads as: riskier than 70.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
BONADIO CO LLP
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
FAVORITE HEALTHCARE STAFFING LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.21
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.84
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.36
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
199.3
3.21
0.21
1.00
2.00
2.84
3.5%
2025Q3
92
195.1
3.26
0.23
1.02
2.01
2.89
5.1%
2025Q2
91
196.4
3.20
0.21
0.98
2.00
2.95
3.0%
2025Q1
90
206.1
2.98
0.22
0.92
1.84
2.71
1.1%
2024Q4
92
189.6
3.34
0.25
0.98
2.11
3.10
0.8%
2024Q3
92
184.1
3.20
0.24
0.97
1.99
2.86
2.6%
2024Q2
91
169.5
3.30
0.26
1.00
2.04
3.01
2.3%
2024Q1
91
168.8
3.03
0.26
1.01
1.76
2.78
3.5%
2023Q4
92
160.1
3.19
0.36
0.92
1.91
2.89
4.9%
2023Q3
92
159.7
3.19
0.37
0.93
1.89
2.85
4.2%
2023Q2
91
161.2
3.10
0.31
0.99
1.80
2.60
10.2%
2023Q1
90
186.0
2.92
0.26
0.97
1.69
2.55
14.3%
2022Q4
92
235.8
2.88
0.28
0.83
1.78
2.42
28.0%
2022Q3
92
226.4
2.89
0.31
0.74
1.83
2.42
33.3%
2022Q2
91
236.4
2.82
0.33
0.82
1.67
2.37
18.7%
2022Q1
90
222.7
2.38
0.26
0.65
1.48
2.10
11.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
B × 1C × 1D × 9E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-12-20
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-02-03
2024-12-20
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-02-03
2024-12-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-02-03
2024-12-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-02-03
2024-12-20
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-02-03
2023-06-28
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2023-08-26
2023-06-28
Health · complaint
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-08-26
2023-06-28
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-08-26
2023-06-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2023-08-26
2023-06-28
Health
F0836
Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.
C
2023-08-26
2021-08-11
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2021-08-30
2021-08-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2021-08-30
2021-08-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-08-30
2021-08-11
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2021-08-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SHERMAN, ISRAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2007-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
ABSOLUT FACILITIES MANAGEMENT, LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2007-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
BONADIO & CO LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FAVORITE HEALTHCARE STAFFING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLANAGAN, DANIEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAHR, KAITLYN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-09-05
current
pecos_ownership
GREEN, JUSTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIGHGATE MEDICAL GROUP PC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIGHGATE MEDICAL GROUP PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
KWARTA, DAIRE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSCATO, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHAN, TOM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-11-21
current
pecos_ownership
RCA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROSSO, RALPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
SGA H. CARE STAFFING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, SAMUEL
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2007-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
SIA SU, GERWINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SZAFARCZYK, HOLLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE MCGUIRE GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VESTRACARE INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEMILLE ARELLANO-LIKOS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2018-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL SHERMAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2007-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL SHERMAN
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2007-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$511,202
$8,391
—
$52,774
$171,661
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36029
acs median gross
0
$942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
0
$1,105
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
1
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
1
$1,139
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
2
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
2
$1,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
3
$1,174
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
4
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
fmr
4
$1,869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36029
acs median gross
5
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
acs median gross
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36029
acs recent mover gross
$1,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14052
acs median gross
1
$1,117
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14052
acs median gross
2
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14052
acs median gross
3
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14052
acs median gross
$1,066
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14052
acs recent mover gross
$1,789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 14052
payment standard 110
0
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 90
0
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
safmr
0
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 110
1
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 90
1
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
safmr
1
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 110
3
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 90
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
safmr
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 110
4
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
payment standard 90
4
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14052
safmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.