Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,251–4,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4251	Brunswick Cove Nursing Center	0.4%	71.9	B	NC	Winnabow	175	—
4252	ARISTACARE AT PARKSIDE	0.4%	71.9	D	NJ	LINDEN	240	—
4253	SCHUYLER COUNTY NURSING HOME DISTRICT	0.4%	71.9	C	MO	QUEEN CITY	60	—
4254	SPRINGHURST HEALTH CAMPUS	0.4%	71.9	C	IN	GREENFIELD	74	TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
4255	LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME	0.4%	71.9	B	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	70	—
4256	HARMONY MANOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	0.4%	71.9	A	NV	WINNEMUCCA	42	—
4257	CATALINA ISLAND MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.4%	71.9	B	CA	AVALON	8	—
4258	LOST CREEK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.9	F	OH	LIMA	54	—
4259	ELGIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	71.9	D	TX	ELGIN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4260	WATERVIEW NURSING CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.9	B	NY	FLUSHING	200	—
4261	Brandenburg Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	71.9	B	KY	Brandenburg	57	—
4262	WORCESTER REHABILITATION & HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.9	C	MA	WORCESTER	160	—
4263	TWIN LAKES THERAPY AND LIVING	0.4%	71.9	C	AR	FLIPPIN	80	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4264	Avon Nursing Home L L C	0.4%	71.9	C	NY	Avon	40	—
4265	HILLCREST CARE CENTER INC	0.4%	71.9	C	MO	DE SOTO	120	—
4266	MN VETERANS HOME FERGUS FALLS	0.4%	71.9	B	MN	FERGUS FALLS	85	—
4267	Woonsocket Health Center	0.4%	71.9	B	RI	Woonsocket	150	—
4268	HEREFORD NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.9	C	TX	HEREFORD	0	LLANO ESTACADO HEALTHCARE LLC
4269	Central Continuing Care	0.4%	71.9	A	NC	Mount Airy	120	—
4270	THE LAKES	0.4%	71.9	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	120	PHOENIX HEALTHCARE LLC
4271	St William's Care Center	0.4%	71.9	C	SD	MILBANK	60	—
4272	HOMEVIEW CENTER OF FRANKLIN	0.4%	71.9	A	IN	FRANKLIN	119	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
4273	Joliet Living & Rehab Center	0.4%	71.9	F	IL	JOLIET	120	—
4274	WINCHESTER GARDENS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.9	A	NJ	MAPLEWOOD	30	SPRINGPOINT SENIOR LIVING INC
4275	CHERRY BROOK HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.9	C	CT	CANTON	100	—
4276	Auburn Manor	0.4%	71.9	A	MN	CHASKA	60	ILLUMINUS INC
4277	RUSSELL PARK REHABILITATION & LIVING CENTER	0.4%	71.9	B	ME	LEWISTON	50	—
4278	Avina of Kenosha	0.4%	71.9	D	WI	Kenosha	153	—
4279	CHERRY BLOSSOM HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.4%	71.9	B	GA	MACON	82	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4280	LINCOLN HILLS OF NEW ALBANY	0.4%	71.9	C	IN	NEW ALBANY	156	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
4281	QUEENS BOULEVARD EXTENDED CARE FACILITY	0.4%	71.9	A	NY	WOODSIDE	280	—
4282	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT CROMWELL	0.4%	71.9	B	CT	CROMWELL	175	—
4283	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	0.4%	71.9	B	MI	Grand Rapids	165	COREWELL HEALTH
4284	LONOKE HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER, LLC	0.4%	71.9	B	AR	LONOKE	80	—
4285	NORTH PARK CARE CENTER	0.4%	71.9	A	OH	BROOK PARK	34	—
4286	FRANKFORT COMMUNITY CARE HOME	0.4%	71.9	C	KS	FRANKFORT	40	—
4287	ORCHARD POINTE HEALTH CAMPUS	0.4%	71.9	C	IN	KENDALLVILLE	58	HARRISON COUNTY HOSPITAL
4288	St Luke's Regional Medical Center SNF	0.4%	71.9	C	IA	Sioux City	20	IOWA HEALTH SYSTEM
4289	MCALLEN NURSING CENTER	0.4%	71.9	C	TX	MCALLEN	0	—
4290	MILLER NURSING HOME	0.4%	71.9	A	GA	COLQUITT	157	THE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY OF MILLER COUNTY
4291	GABLES OF BOUTWELLS LANDING	0.4%	71.9	A	MN	OAK PARK HEIGHTS	108	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
4292	BETHANY VILLAGE RETIREMENT CENTER	0.4%	71.9	A	PA	MECHANICSBURG	69	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
4293	Willowbrook Healthcare	0.4%	71.9	A	KY	Carlisle	71	LEGACY HEALTH SERVICES INC
4294	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF BENTON	0.4%	71.9	C	IL	BENTON	83	BRIDGEMARK HEALTHCARE LLC
4295	APPLE REHAB MIDDLETOWN	0.4%	71.9	C	CT	MIDDLETOWN	70	—
4296	HILLSBORO POST ACUTE	0.4%	71.9	B	OH	HILLSBORO	99	DMD MANAGEMENT INC
4297	Avina of Weyauwega	0.4%	71.9	D	WI	Weyauwega	84	—
4298	WILLOWBROOKE COURT AT LANIER VILLAGE ESTATES	0.4%	71.9	A	GA	GAINESVILLE	48	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4299	THE LIVING CENTRE	0.4%	71.9	B	MT	STEVENSVILLE	50	—
4300	WILLOWBROOKE COURT SKILLED CARE AT EVERGREENS	0.4%	71.9	A	NJ	MOORESTOWN	17	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC

Showing 4,251–4,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.