Screener / 365600

LOST CREEK REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER

snfOH

804 SOUTH MUMAUGH ROAD, LIMA, OH 45804 · CCN 365600

Composite

96.3 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 96.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 ML signals1 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties2 Deficiencies29 Licensure0 Ownership9 Related party6 Transactions1 Comps12 Market rent34

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	87.7	57.9	0.30	0.2308	20.24	in index
staffing risk	82.4	82.4	0.25	0.1923	15.85	in index
regulatory risk	67.6	61.4	0.30	0.2308	15.60	in index
financial risk	62.8	54.2	0.30	0.2308	14.49	in index
chow risk	61.4	60.3	0.15	0.1154	7.08	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	42% fined	KATZ LARRY	19 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	57.9	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	25.0	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	95.6	F	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	54.2	C	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.4	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	0.0	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	61.4	C	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	82.4	F	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	93.2	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	73.2	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	44.7	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	59.2	C	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	61.2	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	61.2	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	82.4	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	82.4	F	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

0.0%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

1.1

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Never sold on record	0.00	-1.62
Current owner tenure (years)	4.45	-1.41
Ownership changes, last 5 years	1.00	-0.87
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	0.00	-0.40
Occupancy	0.83	-0.38
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.4%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

71.9

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Chain size (log)	0.00	+1.20
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Occupancy	0.83	-0.33
Never sold on record	0.00	-0.28
Ownership changes, last 5 years	1.00	+0.23
Current owner tenure (years)	4.45	-0.23

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	OH median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	2.75	3.24	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.15	0.38	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	2.75	3.11	3.11	—
Weekday total	2.75	3.29	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	44.7	2.75	0.15	0.87	1.74	2.75	0.0%
2025Q3	92	43.2	2.85	0.14	0.93	1.78	2.82	0.0%
2025Q2	91	42.1	2.79	0.20	0.81	1.78	2.77	0.0%
2025Q1	90	41.2	2.81	0.19	0.89	1.73	2.76	0.0%
2024Q4	92	39.6	2.88	0.18	0.94	1.76	2.79	0.0%
2024Q3	92	39.9	2.92	0.19	0.98	1.76	2.93	0.0%
2024Q2	91	36.3	3.15	0.21	1.00	1.93	2.76	0.0%
2024Q1	91	40.7	3.00	0.36	0.83	1.81	2.76	0.0%
2023Q4	92	41.6	2.63	0.18	0.91	1.53	2.58	0.0%
2023Q3	92	37.2	2.95	0.41	0.70	1.84	2.85	0.0%
2023Q2	91	39.4	2.98	0.46	0.63	1.90	2.80	0.0%
2023Q1	90	41.8	2.96	0.46	0.61	1.89	2.92	0.0%
2022Q4	92	37.7	2.71	0.41	0.63	1.67	2.56	0.7%
2022Q3	92	31.9	2.89	0.37	0.71	1.81	2.62	0.0%
2022Q2	91	34.7	2.11	0.63	0.23	1.25	2.01	0.0%
2022Q1	90	38.8	2.23	0.65	0.27	1.31	2.29	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

fines by year

Date	Type	Fine	Source
2025-06-09	Fine	$34,894	CMS provider data
2024-06-27	Fine	$20,194	CMS provider data

Total fines on record: $55,088

Deficiencies

C × 3D × 13E × 7F × 3G × 3

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2025-06-09	Health	F0558	Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0577	Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.	C	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0578	Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0628	Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0644	Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0655	Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0657	Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.	E	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0686	Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.	G	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0847	Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2025-06-27
2025-06-09	Health	F0947	Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.	F	2025-06-27
2024-06-27	Health · complaint	F0689	Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.	G	2024-07-11
2024-02-08	Health · complaint	F0883	Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.	E	2024-02-26
2024-02-08	Health · complaint	F0887	Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.	E	2024-02-26
2022-11-21	Health	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	D	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0686	Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.	G	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0730	Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.	C	2022-12-16
2022-11-21	Health	F0757	Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.	D	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0791	Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.	D	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	F	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0886	Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.	F	2022-12-19
2022-11-21	Health	F0947	Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.	C	2022-12-16
2019-12-05	Health	F0558	Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.	D	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0584	Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.	E	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0602	Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.	E	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0607	Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.	E	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0610	Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.	E	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0685	Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.	D	2020-01-10
2019-12-05	Health	F0807	Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.	D	2020-01-10

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
804 SOUTH MUMAUGH ROAD PROPCO	Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider	—	2023-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
804 SOUTH MUMAUGH ROAD PROPCO	Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider	—	2024-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
HANNA, SALIM	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2022-02-15	current	pecos_ownership
KATZ, LARRY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2022-02-15	current	pecos_ownership
STEWART, LYNSEY	MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY	—	2024-12-30	current	pecos_ownership
LARRY KATZ	CORPORATE OFFICER	100%	2022-02-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
EASTWOOD GARDENS HEALTHCARE	Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider	—	2022-02-15	ended 2022-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
LYNSEY STEWART	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-12-30	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SALIM HANNA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2022-02-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$333,245	—	—	—	—	1	propco
2023-12-31	$340,917	—	—	—	—	1	propco
2022-12-31	$80,946	—	—	—	—	1	propco
2022-02-14	$95,994	$9,405	$20,542	$54,662	$1,051	4	—
2021-12-31	$783,781	—	$188,625	$459,967	$6,889	4	—
2020-12-31	$619,573	—	$155,259	$378,131	$5,980	4	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

Close date	Price	Buyer	Seller	Evidence
2022-02-15	—	LOST CREEK CENTER FOR LIVING LLC	GUARDIAN ELDER CARE AT LIMA I LLC	chow

Comparable trades — OH snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2024-12-31	SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	—	—	—	113	SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE	—	—	—	82	POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON	—	—	—	82	NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	99	ATRIUM OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation	—	—	—	99	FHS INNISWOOD, INC.
2024-12-31	COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE	—	—	—	110	CS OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG	—	—	—	75	PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER	—	—	—	99	GO OPCO LLC
2024-12-31	MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT	—	—	—	74	KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC
2024-12-30	Chardon Woods	—	—	—	161	CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC
2024-12-16	The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab	—	—	—	60	PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC
2024-12-02	BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	79	FHS BENNINGTON INC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 39003	acs median gross	0	$803	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	fmr	0	$839	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003	acs median gross	1	$619	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	fmr	1	$844	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003	acs median gross	2	$939	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	fmr	2	$1,108	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003	acs median gross	3	$1,030	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	fmr	3	$1,338	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003	acs median gross	4	$1,102	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	fmr	4	$1,493	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 39003	acs median gross	5	$1,099	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	acs median gross		$922	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 39003	acs recent mover gross		$979	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs median gross	1	$290	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs median gross	2	$972	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs median gross	3	$1,011	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs median gross	4	$1,060	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs median gross		$886	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 45804	acs recent mover gross		$1,190	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 45804	payment standard 110	0	$913	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 90	0	$747	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	safmr	0	$830	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 110	1	$913	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 90	1	$747	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	safmr	1	$830	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 110	2	$1,199	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 90	2	$981	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	safmr	2	$1,090	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 110	3	$1,452	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 90	3	$1,188	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	safmr	3	$1,320	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 110	4	$1,617	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	payment standard 90	4	$1,323	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 45804	safmr	4	$1,470	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.