Composite
37.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 555187
B
CATALINA ISLAND MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF
snfCA
100 FALLS CANYON RD, AVALON, CA 90704 · CCN 555187
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
8
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 37.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2Components6CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties0Deficiencies19Licensure0Ownership20Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent31
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 84.9 | 45.0 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 28.30 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 23.0 | 15.2 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 15.33 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
6| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.4 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 15.2 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| regulatory risk | 15.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 15.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
33.3
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 2.20 | +0.32 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.4%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
71.9
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 2.20 | +0.45 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19C × 1D × 8E × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | E | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | D | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | E | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | F | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0867 | Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action. | D | 2025-06-07 |
| 2025-05-08 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-06-07 |
| 2024-05-10 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-05-29 |
| 2024-05-10 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-05-29 |
| 2024-05-10 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-05-29 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-06-21 |
| 2023-05-19 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | E | 2023-06-21 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVALON MEDICAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AVALON MEDICAL DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AWALT, CATRINA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2015-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, JOHN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2018-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GREAR, JUDY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HOHENSTEIN, NICOLE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIELPINSKI, TIMOTHY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-03-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIELPINSKI, TIMOTHY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MACLEOD, RENEE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOTTER, DENISE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2022-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SALDANA, GERTRUDE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CATRINA AWALT | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2015-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DENISE MOTTER | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GERTRUDE SALDANA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2016-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JUDY GREAR | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2016-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NICOLE HOHENSTEIN | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RENEE MACLEOD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 100% | 2022-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY KIELPINSKI | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2025-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN FOX | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2018-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TIMOTHY KIELPINSKI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2026-03-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — CA snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Turlock Nursing & Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 144 | TRACY RIDGE HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | ALAMITOS WEST HEALTH & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 150 | MALCOLM HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2025-04-01 | PACIFIC HAVEN SUBACUTE AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | STRAWBERRY POND HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2025-01-16 | GOLDEN HARBOR HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | CEYLON HOLDINGS LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | GRASS VALLEY HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 86 | HEISMAN LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 144 | SOQUEL CARE LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | OAK GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 119 | 4545 SHELLEY COURT OPCO, LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING - FREMONT | — | — | — | 99 | WE CARE SKILLED NURSING-FREMONT, LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | MAJESTIC MOUNTAIN CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 66 | OAKHURST SKILLED CARE LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | THE BRADLEY GARDENS | — | — | — | 44 | GHC OF SAN JACINTO LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | SANTA FE POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 187 | SKILLED BOBIER LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | BAYSHIRE SAN DIMAS POST-ACUTE | — | — | — | 45 | SKILLED SAN DIMAS LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,523 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,724 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 1 | $2,085 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,127 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 2 | $2,601 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,484 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 3 | $3,298 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | fmr | 4 | $3,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,767 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 06037 | acs median gross | $1,954 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 06037 | acs recent mover gross | $2,358 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 90704 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,226 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90704 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,952 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 90704 | acs median gross | $2,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,343 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,917 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | safmr | 0 | $2,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,618 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,142 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | safmr | 1 | $2,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $3,267 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,673 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | safmr | 2 | $2,970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $4,147 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,393 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | safmr | 3 | $3,770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,609 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,771 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 90704 | safmr | 4 | $4,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.