Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

4,101–4,150

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
4101	CONCORDIA OF THE SOUTH HILLS	0.4%	73.2	A	PA	PITTSBURGH	46	CONCORDIA CARE NETWORK
4102	ST MARTIN'S IN THE PINES	0.4%	73.2	B	AL	IRONDALE	128	DAC ACQUISITION LLC
4103	Sylan Shores Health and Wellness	0.4%	73.2	C	TX	La Porte	0	FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4104	RUSSELL REGIONAL HOSPITAL LTCU	0.4%	73.2	A	KS	RUSSELL	23	—
4105	CONCORD CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	73.2	C	OH	SANDUSKY	50	—
4106	Barnert Subacute Rehabilitation Center, Llc	0.4%	73.2	C	NJ	PATERSON	68	—
4107	WINDSOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF HARLI	0.4%	73.2	B	TX	HARLINGEN	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
4108	WESTWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	73.2	A	FL	FORT WALTON BEACH	60	—
4109	WILLOWBROOKE CTSKDCARECTR ATNORMANDY FARMS ESTATES	0.4%	73.2	A	PA	BLUE BELL	10	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
4110	VIA CHRISTI VILLAGE PITTSBURG	0.4%	73.2	D	KS	PITTSBURG	96	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
4111	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE IMPERIAL	0.4%	73.2	B	FL	NAPLES	113	SOLARIS FOUNDATION INC
4112	SKIATOOK NURSING HOME,LLC	0.4%	73.2	A	OK	SKIATOOK	70	SANDRA CHEEK FARMER TRUST
4113	MONTANA VETERANS HOME N H	0.4%	73.2	A	MT	COLUMBIA FALLS	105	—
4114	Millcreek Rehabilitation and Nursing	0.4%	73.2	B	UT	Salt Lake City	61	BEAVER VALLEY HOSPITAL
4115	The Californian	0.4%	73.2	C	CA	Santa Barbara	68	—
4116	REELFOOT MANOR HEALTH AND REHAB	0.4%	73.2	B	TN	TIPTONVILLE	116	BARRES LLC
4117	DOBSON PLAZA	0.4%	73.2	B	IL	EVANSTON	97	—
4118	PARKSIDE LUTHERAN HOME	0.4%	73.2	A	ND	LISBON	40	—
4119	WESTMINSTER SUNCOAST	0.4%	73.2	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	120	WESTMINSTER SERVICES INC
4120	WOODLAND MANOR	0.4%	73.2	B	MO	SPRINGFIELD	94	—
4121	GRACY WOODS II LIVING CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	TX	AUSTIN	0	CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
4122	MEDICALODGES NEOSHO	0.4%	72.9	C	MO	NEOSHO	114	MEDICALODGES INC
4123	Chautauqua Guest Home #3	0.4%	72.9	A	IA	Charles City	57	FLOYD COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL COMMISSION
4124	ASPEN TRACE HEALTH & LIVING COMMUNITY	0.4%	72.9	B	IN	GREENWOOD	104	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
4125	Oakwood Specialty Care	0.4%	72.9	B	IA	Albia	54	CARE INITIATIVES
4126	Cheshire Home	0.4%	72.9	A	NJ	FLORHAM PARK	35	—
4127	ADVANCED REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE OF BOWIE	0.4%	72.9	B	TX	BOWIE	0	NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4128	PANORAMA CITY CONV & REHAB CTR	0.4%	72.9	B	WA	LACEY	155	—
4129	Longview Hill Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.4%	72.9	D	TX	Longview	0	HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
4130	MILTON REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.4%	72.9	D	PA	MILTON	138	—
4131	NORTH OAKS COMMUNITIES	0.4%	72.9	A	MD	BALTIMORE	37	—
4132	The Grand Rehabilitation and Nursing At Pawling	0.4%	72.9	B	NY	PAWLING	122	—
4133	Davis Health and Wellness Center at Cambridge Vill	0.4%	72.9	B	NC	Wilmington	20	UNIDINE CORPORATION
4134	AUTUMN LAKE HEALTHCARE AT GLEN HILL	0.4%	72.9	B	CT	DANBURY	100	—
4135	PruittHealth - Lakeside, LLC	0.4%	72.9	C	GA	MACON	92	HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
4136	Pine Bluff Transitional Care	0.4%	72.9	C	AR	Pine Bluff	177	TLC ERETZ MANAGEMENT LLC
4137	RAINBOW HEALTH CARE COMMUNITY AND RAINBOW ASSISTED	0.4%	72.9	D	OK	BRISTOW	106	MLS ACQUISITION LLC
4138	MCGUFFEY HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	AL	GADSDEN	209	—
4139	WESTMINSTER CANTERBURY BLUE RI	0.4%	72.9	A	VA	CHARLOTTESVILLE	27	—
4140	Hamilton Manor Nursing Home	0.4%	72.9	A	NY	Rochester	40	—
4141	ABUNDANT ACRES CARE AND REHAB	0.4%	72.9	D	MO	SAVANNAH	88	—
4142	QUINCY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.4%	72.9	A	PA	WAYNESBORO	94	PHI
4143	CHEROKEE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.9	A	AL	CENTRE	185	—
4144	BELOIT HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.4%	72.9	C	WI	BELOIT	110	—
4145	SPLIT ROCK REHABILITION AND HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	NY	BRONX	240	—
4146	THE SANCTUARY AT TUTTLE CROSSING	0.4%	72.9	B	OH	DUBLIN	66	AHF MANAGEMENT CORP
4147	PAVILION-THS, LLC	0.4%	72.9	A	TN	LEBANON	60	—
4148	HERITAGE INN OF BARNESVILLE HEALTH AND REHAB	0.4%	72.9	B	GA	BARNESVILLE	117	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
4149	CARMEL RICHMOND HEALTHCARE AND REHAB CENTER	0.4%	72.9	B	NY	STATEN ISLAND	300	CATHOLIC HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS
4150	Stanly Manor	0.4%	72.9	C	NC	Albemarle	90	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC

Showing 4,101–4,150 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.