Reads as: riskier than 32.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.8 vs natl
BYROM DAVID
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
SHAPIRO MENACHEM
12 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
BYROM DAVID
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.34
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.27
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.36
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.33
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.0
2.34
0.27
0.64
1.44
2.36
1.1%
2025Q3
92
93.3
2.17
0.19
0.57
1.41
2.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
93.3
2.23
0.27
0.54
1.42
2.10
0.0%
2025Q1
90
93.7
2.28
0.35
0.44
1.49
2.10
0.0%
2024Q4
92
92.6
2.46
0.36
0.45
1.65
2.22
0.0%
2024Q3
92
93.9
2.23
0.34
0.46
1.43
2.00
0.0%
2024Q2
91
91.9
1.65
0.40
0.40
0.86
1.50
0.0%
2024Q1
91
87.1
1.61
0.38
0.43
0.80
1.46
0.0%
2023Q4
92
85.9
1.39
0.41
0.38
0.60
1.06
0.0%
2023Q3
92
85.6
1.75
0.51
0.46
0.78
1.31
0.0%
2023Q2
91
82.4
1.90
0.52
0.49
0.90
1.54
0.0%
2023Q1
90
85.5
1.84
0.47
0.43
0.94
1.45
0.0%
2022Q4
92
84.6
1.85
0.39
0.44
1.03
1.38
0.0%
2022Q3
92
86.9
1.86
0.41
0.38
1.07
1.49
0.0%
2022Q2
91
87.8
2.00
0.43
0.40
1.18
1.62
0.0%
2022Q1
90
85.0
2.22
0.40
0.58
1.25
1.82
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
B × 1D × 8E × 7
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-20
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2025-03-21
2025-03-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-03-21
2025-03-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-03-21
2025-03-20
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2025-03-21
2024-01-31
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-31
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-01
2024-01-31
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-02-01
2024-01-31
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-02-01
2022-10-27
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
B
2022-11-27
2022-10-27
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2022-11-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
8
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BYROM, DAVID
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHP GRACY WOODS II OPCO, LLC
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2026-04-01
current
tx_hhsc_directory
GRACY WOODS HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAPIRO, MENACHEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHAPIRO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BYROM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48453
acs median gross
0
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
1
$1,553
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
2
$1,849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
2
$1,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
3
$2,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
3
$2,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
4
$2,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
fmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48453
acs median gross
5
$2,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs median gross
$1,744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48453
acs recent mover gross
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
0
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
1
$1,572
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
2
$1,802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
3
$1,975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs median gross
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78758
acs recent mover gross
$1,788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78758
payment standard 110
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
0
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
1
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
1
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
1
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
2
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
2
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
2
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
3
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
3
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
3
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 110
4
$3,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
payment standard 90
4
$2,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78758
safmr
4
$2,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.