Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,651–3,700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3651	Rocky Mountain Care - Willow Springs	0.6%	76.1	B	UT	Tooele	112	BEAVER CITY CORPORATION
3652	GERMAN CENTER FOR EXTENDED CARE	0.6%	76.1	A	MA	BOSTON	133	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
3653	SOUTHBROOKE MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTE	0.6%	76.1	C	TX	EDNA	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
3654	HALE MAKUA - WAILUKU	0.6%	76.1	B	HI	WAILUKU	90	OHANA PACIFIC MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC
3655	NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER AT GOOD SHEPHERD	0.6%	76.1	B	AR	LITTLE ROCK	120	—
3656	Elkader Care Center	0.6%	76.1	A	IA	Elkader	40	KEVIN PERRINJAQUET ESTATE
3657	GLENWOOD HEALTHCARE	0.6%	76.1	B	MO	SEYMOUR	60	—
3658	WOODLANDS SKILLED NURSING AND THERAPY	0.6%	76.1	B	OK	OKMULGEE	114	BRIDGES ESOP INC
3659	TERESIAN HOUSE NURSING HOME CO INC	0.6%	76.1	A	NY	ALBANY	302	UNIDINE CORPORATION
3660	ARISTACARE AT NORWOOD TERRACE	0.6%	76.1	A	NJ	PLAINFIELD	120	—
3661	WARM SPRINGS MEDICAL CENTER NURSING HOME	0.6%	76.1	A	GA	WARM SPRINGS	79	—
3662	Grundy Care Center	0.6%	76.1	D	IA	Grundy Center	40	—
3663	SARAH A TODD MEMORIAL HOME	0.6%	76.1	A	PA	CARLISLE	117	UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST HOMES
3664	OCEANSIDE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.6%	76.1	B	MA	ROCKPORT	76	—
3665	Brookestone View	0.6%	76.1	B	NE	Broken Bow	60	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
3666	Clearview Home	0.5%	76.0	A	IA	Mount Ayr	82	—
3667	Corewell Health Greenville Hospital Rehabilitation	0.5%	76.0	A	MI	Greenville	39	COREWELL HEALTH
3668	LINCOLN PARK MANOR INC	0.5%	76.0	A	KS	LINCOLN	36	LINCOLN PARK MANOR INC
3669	North Winds Living Center	0.5%	76.0	C	OK	Oklahoma City	29	—
3670	COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE	0.5%	76.0	B	OH	WARREN	110	YYAM HOLDINGS LLC
3671	WATERS OF PERU SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.5%	76.0	D	IN	PERU	130	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3672	COLONIAL TERRACE CARE CENTER	0.5%	76.0	A	OK	PRYOR	75	BGM ESTATE LLC
3673	TALIHINA MANOR	0.5%	76.0	A	OK	TALIHINA	69	BGM ESTATE LLC
3674	A Holly Patterson Extended Care Facility	0.5%	76.0	D	NY	UNIONDALE	589	—
3675	HIRAM SHADDOX HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	76.0	C	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	140	EAGLE HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3676	PLYMOUTH VILLAGE	0.5%	76.0	A	CA	REDLANDS	48	HUMANGOOD
3677	Saint Josephs Living Center, Inc.	0.5%	76.0	B	CT	WINDHAM	120	CHELSEA JEWISH LIFECARE INC
3678	BENEDICTINE HEALTH CENTER INNSBRUCK	0.5%	76.0	A	MN	NEW BRIGHTON	105	—
3679	WRANGELL MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.5%	76.0	A	AK	WRANGELL	18	SOUTHEAST ALASKA REGIONAL HEALTH CONSORTIUM
3680	LAKE FOREST PLACE	0.5%	76.0	A	IL	LAKE FOREST	50	PRESBYTERIAN HOMES
3681	S.E.M. HAVEN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.5%	76.0	A	OH	MILFORD	93	UNITED CHURCH HOMES MANAGEMENT INC
3682	LATIMER NURSING HOME	0.5%	76.0	C	OK	WILBURTON	48	—
3683	PONCHATOULA COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.5%	76.0	A	LA	PONCHATOULA	140	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
3684	Newport House	0.5%	76.0	A	NE	Omaha	96	—
3685	Calvin Community	0.5%	76.0	C	IA	Des Moines	59	—
3686	WILDWOOD HEALTH AND REHAB	0.5%	76.0	B	GA	TALKING ROCK	44	—
3687	OAK KNOLL SKILLED NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.5%	76.0	A	MO	FERGUSON	72	—
3688	ST JOHNS PLACE	0.5%	76.0	B	MO	SAINT LOUIS	94	—
3689	Smoky Ridge Health and Rehabilitation	0.5%	76.0	D	NC	Burnsville	140	CTNC HOLDINGS LLC
3690	BETHEL MANOR	0.5%	76.0	B	IN	EVANSVILLE	75	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
3691	PERRY COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.5%	76.0	C	TN	LINDEN	114	—
3692	SEARS MANOR NURSING HOME	0.5%	76.0	B	GA	BRUNSWICK	100	CROSSROADS MEDICAL MANAGEMENT INC
3693	COUNTRYSIDE ESTATES	0.5%	75.8	A	OK	WARNER	111	—
3694	KENTMERE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.5%	75.8	A	DE	WILMINGTON	104	—
3695	LONG ISLAND STATE VETERANS HOME	0.5%	75.8	A	NY	STONYBROOK	350	STATE OF NEW YORK COMPTROLLERS OFFICE
3696	Avir at Converse	0.5%	75.8	C	TX	CONVERSE	0	MCCULLOCH COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3697	Willowbrooke Court SC Ctr at Matthews Glen	0.5%	75.8	A	NC	Matthews	15	ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
3698	MARJORIE P LEE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	0.5%	75.8	B	OH	CINCINNATI	88	EPISCOPAL RETIREMENT HOMES INC
3699	CIBOLO CREEK	0.5%	75.8	D	TX	BOERNE	0	MEDINA COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
3700	Premier Rehab and Healthcare at Berlin	0.5%	75.8	D	VT	Barre	115	—

Showing 3,651–3,700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.