Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

2,401–2,450

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2401	LAKESIDE HEALTH CENTER	4.2%	85.8	A	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	107	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2402	GARDENS COURT	4.2%	85.8	A	FL	PALM BEACH GARDENS	120	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
2403	Corry Manor	4.2%	85.8	C	PA	CORRY	121	HCF INC
2404	Gracewood Health & Rehab	4.2%	85.8	D	OK	Tulsa	121	—
2405	PRAIRIE ESTATES	4.2%	85.8	C	TX	FRISCO	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
2406	LAKEFRONT NURSING & REHAB CTR	4.2%	85.8	A	IL	CHICAGO	99	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2407	PACIFIC VILLAS POST ACUTE	4.2%	85.8	—	CA	OCEANSIDE	—	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2408	GRANDVIEW REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.2%	85.8	D	CT	NEW BRITAIN	160	—
2409	Capital Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.2%	85.8	A	NC	Raleigh	125	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
2410	Vantage at Westfield LLC	4.2%	85.7	C	MA	WESTFIELD	98	—
2411	BATAVIA NURSING CARE CENTER	4.2%	85.7	A	OH	BATAVIA	110	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2412	HAWTHORNE HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE, LP	4.2%	85.7	B	CA	HAWTHORNE	88	ROCKPORT ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES LLC
2413	PRUITTHEALTH - SUNRISE	4.2%	85.7	A	GA	MOULTRIE	60	UHS PRUITT HOLDINGS INC
2414	MEADOWS OF MARION HEALTH AND REHABILITATION THE	4.2%	85.7	A	OH	MARION	99	FOUNDATIONS HEALTH LLC
2415	Delta Blues Health & Rehabilitation	4.2%	85.7	C	TN	MEMPHIS	180	NORBERT A BENNETT IRRV TR FBO CHILDREN
2416	GARDENS AT MONROE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION, T	4.2%	85.7	A	NJ	MONROE TOWNSHIP	136	—
2417	LEGEND OAKS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION - NORTH	4.2%	85.7	B	TX	AUSTIN	0	GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD
2418	HERITAGE HALL BLACKSBURG	4.2%	85.7	B	VA	BLACKSBURG	179	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE LLC
2419	REGENCY OMAK	4.2%	85.7	B	WA	OMAK	56	REGENCY PACIFIC MANAGEMENT LLC
2420	PruittHealth - Lakeside, LLC	4.2%	85.7	C	GA	MACON	92	HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC
2421	GRAND VALLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.2%	85.7	B	CA	VAN NUYS	99	THE BENTZION MANDELBAUM 2021 IRREVOCABLE GIFT TRUST NO 2
2422	Legacy Nursing and Rehabilitation of Port Allen	4.2%	85.7	C	LA	Port Allen	125	LEGACY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
2423	HICKORY CREEK AT CRAWFORDSVILLE	4.2%	85.7	A	IN	CRAWFORDSVILLE	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
2424	LONDON HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	4.2%	85.7	A	OH	LONDON	78	BNV DYNASTY LLC
2425	Copper Ridge Care Center	4.2%	85.7	A	CA	REDDING	125	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2426	THE CARE CENTER OF DEQUINCY	4.2%	85.7	C	LA	DEQUINCY	80	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
2427	SOUTHERN HILLS HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION	4.2%	85.6	C	LA	SHREVEPORT	101	PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
2428	RIVERSIDE POST ACUTE	4.2%	85.6	C	FL	JACKSONVILLE	240	NFR 2020 IRRV TR
2429	CORONADO HEALTHCARE CENTER	4.2%	85.6	A	AZ	PHOENIX	191	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2430	THE HAMPTONS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING	4.2%	85.6	F	NY	SOUTH HAMPTON	280	—
2431	Margate Health and Rehabilitation, LLC	4.2%	85.6	F	NC	Jefferson	210	—
2432	MAYBROOK HILLS REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTE	4.2%	85.6	C	PA	ALTOONA	240	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
2433	ALDEN ESTATES OF ORLAND PARK	4.2%	85.6	F	IL	ORLAND PARK	200	ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
2434	Liberty Commons Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	4.2%	85.6	B	NC	Sanford	80	LIBERTY HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
2435	Whitney Oaks Care Center	4.2%	85.5	A	CA	Carmichael	126	PACS HOLDINGS LLC
2436	STONEBRIDGE LAKE OZARK	4.2%	85.5	C	MO	OSAGE BEACH	66	BRIDGE REHABILITATION INC
2437	MARMET CENTER	4.2%	85.5	B	WV	MARMET	90	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2438	Medilodge of Yale	4.2%	85.5	A	MI	Yale	108	B&Y TRUST
2439	THE COVE AT LA JOLLA	4.2%	85.5	A	CA	LA JOLLA	59	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2440	Gateway Transitional Care Center	4.2%	85.5	C	ID	Pocatello	88	THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
2441	COLONIAL OAKS HEALTH CARE CENTER	4.2%	85.5	B	IN	MARION	127	RIVERVIEW HOSPITAL
2442	AUSTINBURG NSG AND REHAB CTR	4.2%	85.5	B	OH	AUSTINBURG	99	ATRIUM CENTERS MANAGEMENT LLC
2443	MCPHERSON OPERATOR, LLC	4.2%	85.5	C	KS	MCPHERSON	45	BARRES LLC
2444	HUNTINGTON HEALTH CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	4.2%	85.5	D	TX	HUNTINGTON	112	—
2445	COBBLESTONE CROSSINGS HEALTH CAMPUS	4.2%	85.5	C	IN	TERRE HAUTE	60	TRILOGY OPCO LLC
2446	AVANTARA PARK RIDGE	4.2%	85.5	C	IL	PARK RIDGE	154	CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
2447	LOFLAND PARK CENTER	4.2%	85.5	A	DE	SEAFORD	110	HCCF MANAGEMENT GROUP XI LLC
2448	PREMIER AT PERRY VILLAGE FOR NURSING AND REHAB, LL	4.2%	85.5	C	PA	NEW BLOOMFIELD	118	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
2449	Victoria Haven Nursing Facility	4.2%	85.5	C	MA	NORWOOD	31	REHABILITATION ASSOCIATES INC
2450	PLEASANT VIEW NURSING CENTER	4.2%	85.5	C	GA	METTER	120	BEACON HEALTH MANAGEMENT LLC

Showing 2,401–2,450 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.