Composite
90.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 96.9 | 88.2 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.36 | in index |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | 86.1 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 16.56 | in index |
| billing conduct | 53.7 | 40.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.39 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 48.0 | 37.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 11.08 | in index |
| chow risk | 39.8 | 41.5 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.59 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 40.9 | B | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 24.6 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 58.3 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 88.2 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 1.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 4.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 37.0 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 81.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 70.6 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 87.1 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 36.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 36.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 86.1 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.56 | +0.39 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Occupancy | 0.56 | +0.78 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.66 | +0.23 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | TX median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.66 | 2.67 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.04 | 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.85 | 2.56 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.59 | 2.72 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 63.2 | 2.66 | 0.04 | 0.70 | 1.92 | 2.85 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 63.0 | 2.98 | 0.09 | 0.89 | 2.00 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 65.1 | 2.73 | 0.10 | 0.81 | 1.83 | 2.80 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 65.4 | 2.86 | 0.09 | 0.89 | 1.89 | 2.90 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 63.1 | 2.70 | 0.10 | 0.74 | 1.87 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 68.3 | 2.29 | 0.04 | 0.69 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 3.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 65.6 | 2.48 | 0.05 | 0.84 | 1.58 | 2.42 | 18.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 58.8 | 2.59 | 0.04 | 1.03 | 1.52 | 2.78 | 6.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 52.8 | 2.56 | 0.05 | 0.92 | 1.59 | 2.77 | 3.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 51.8 | 2.71 | 0.06 | 0.90 | 1.75 | 2.80 | 9.9% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 50.5 | 4.74 | 0.10 | 1.25 | 3.40 | 3.69 | 14.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 53.0 | 4.36 | 0.05 | 1.68 | 2.63 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 58.9 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 63.7 | 2.49 | 0.04 | 0.85 | 1.60 | 2.52 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 67.5 | 2.30 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 1.63 | 2.40 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-07-16 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2025-07-17 |
| 2025-04-03 | Health · complaint | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2025-04-04 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | F | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | F | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2024-05-31 |
| 2024-05-30 | Health | F0926 | Have policies on smoking. | F | 2024-05-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0813 | Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0839 | Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0851 | Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data. | C | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| 2023-03-30 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | D | 2023-03-31 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRYER, SHANNON | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 96% | 2024-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JANUS GP, LLC | GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2007-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| REYNOLDS, JEANIE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SHANNON CRYER | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 96% | 2024-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JEANIE REYNOLDS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-11-08 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | ST. ANTHONY'S CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-10-01 | Avir at New Braunfels | — | — | — | 154 | 821 US HIGHWAY 81 W OPCO LLC |
| 2025-09-01 | Avir at Texarkana | — | — | — | 110 | GUADALUPE COUNTY HOSPITAL BOARD |
| 2025-09-01 | PARKS HEALTH CENTER | — | — | — | 90 | WEST COKE COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-09-01 | WINDMILL VILLAGE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Ventanas De Socorro | — | — | — | 126 | SOCORRO HEALTH CARE LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Mineola | — | — | — | 115 | HOPKINS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Orem | — | — | — | 120 | 3730 W OREM DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Courtyard | — | — | — | 120 | 7499 STANWICK DR OPCO LLC |
| 2025-08-01 | HILLSIDE MEDICAL LODGE | — | — | — | 128 | CORYELL COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL AUTHORITY |
| 2025-08-01 | Avir at Pasadena | — | — | — | 131 | 4300 VISTA RD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Highland Meadows | — | — | — | 120 | NOCONA HOSPITAL DISTRICT |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 48005 | acs median gross | 0 | $999 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48005 | fmr | 0 | $876 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48005 | acs median gross | 1 | $879 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48005 | fmr | 1 | $892 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48005 | acs median gross | 2 | $971 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48005 | fmr | 2 | $1,021 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48005 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,217 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48005 | fmr | 3 | $1,365 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48005 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,105 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 48005 | fmr | 4 | $1,414 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 48005 | acs median gross | $1,076 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 48005 | acs recent mover gross | $1,079 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 75949 | acs median gross | 1 | $564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75949 | acs median gross | 2 | $722 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75949 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,192 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75949 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,036 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 75949 | acs median gross | $953 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 75949 | acs recent mover gross | $610 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $924 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $756 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | safmr | 0 | $840 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $765 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | safmr | 1 | $850 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | safmr | 3 | $1,300 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 75949 | safmr | 4 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |