Reads as: riskier than 12.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HAFIDH SAAD
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.60
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.17
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.51
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.64
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
34.9
2.60
0.17
0.65
1.79
2.51
0.0%
2025Q3
92
34.3
2.86
0.21
0.61
2.03
2.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
33.7
2.70
0.21
0.57
1.92
2.78
0.0%
2025Q1
90
33.8
2.51
0.20
0.56
1.75
2.61
0.0%
2024Q4
92
32.3
2.37
0.17
0.62
1.59
2.38
0.0%
2024Q3
92
33.6
2.33
0.07
0.70
1.56
2.34
0.5%
2024Q2
91
33.1
2.42
0.12
0.70
1.60
2.39
0.0%
2024Q1
91
33.1
2.45
0.10
0.70
1.66
2.43
0.0%
2023Q4
92
32.7
2.31
0.14
0.67
1.51
2.36
0.3%
2023Q3
92
32.7
2.40
0.07
0.69
1.64
2.41
6.6%
2023Q2
91
31.7
2.38
0.09
0.66
1.63
2.21
14.8%
2023Q1
90
30.0
2.44
0.16
0.60
1.68
2.43
16.3%
2022Q4
92
30.7
2.53
0.08
0.67
1.78
2.44
16.5%
2022Q3
92
31.6
2.27
0.19
0.60
1.48
2.00
20.1%
2022Q2
91
32.3
1.80
0.18
0.55
1.07
1.65
21.6%
2022Q1
90
31.5
2.19
0.18
0.61
1.40
1.92
10.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 10E × 3F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-13
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-02-02
2026-01-13
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-02-02
2025-07-03
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-07-19
2025-07-03
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-07-19
2025-07-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-07-19
2024-05-23
Health
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-23
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-23
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2024-06-21
2024-05-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-06-21
2024-05-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-06-21
2023-11-09
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-11-15
2023-03-10
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-10
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-10
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-03-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
53
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
CHIES, STEVEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DICE, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DYNES, SHELDON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOXWORTHY, RACHEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-02-22
current
pecos_ownership
HAFIDH, SAAD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
HAFIDH, SAAD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, BLAKE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, ETHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, WESSLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUSTICE, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELSEY, DONNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
MIERS, JEREMY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
MIERS, JEREMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
PIDGEON, JOHN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RING, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHANE, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHORE, MARION
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STITLE, STEPHEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAN CAMP, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARE, DEBORAH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, THERESSA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN RING
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW SHANE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BLAKE JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JUSTICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH WARE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA KELSEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ETHAN JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HICKORY CREEK HEALTHCARE FOUNDATION
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HICKORY CREEK REALTY LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HICKORY CREEK REALTY LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JEREMY MIERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY MIERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PIDGEON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARION SHORE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK DICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL FOXWORTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-02-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAAD HAFIDH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAAD HAFIDH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELDON DYNES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN STITLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN CHIES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN VAN CAMP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THERESSA WRIGHT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-05-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESSLEY JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$239,361
$5,255
—
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$214,041
$5,956
—
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$217,922
—
—
—
—
12
propco
2021-12-31
$149,028
—
—
—
—
13
propco
2020-12-31
$341,753
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18107
acs median gross
0
$699
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
fmr
0
$802
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18107
acs median gross
1
$744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
fmr
1
$807
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18107
acs median gross
2
$899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
fmr
2
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18107
acs median gross
3
$1,092
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
fmr
3
$1,281
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18107
acs median gross
4
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
fmr
4
$1,399
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18107
acs median gross
$858
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18107
acs recent mover gross
$888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs median gross
0
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs median gross
1
$750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs median gross
2
$900
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs median gross
3
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs median gross
$849
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47933
acs recent mover gross
$888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47933
payment standard 110
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 90
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
safmr
0
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 110
2
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 90
2
$1,107
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
safmr
2
$1,230
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 110
3
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 90
3
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
safmr
3
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 110
4
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
payment standard 90
4
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47933
safmr
4
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.