Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,751–1,800

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1751	HUBBARD HILL ESTATES INC	1.5%	88.6	A	IN	ELKHART	66	—
1752	CENTRO MEDICO WILMA N VAZQUEZ SNF	1.5%	88.6	A	PR	VEGA BAJA	45	—
1753	Good Samaritan Society - Syracuse	1.5%	88.6	C	NE	Syracuse	88	SANFORD
1754	Happy Siesta Health Care Center	1.5%	88.5	A	IA	Remsen	62	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
1755	OROVILLE HOSPITAL POST-ACUTE CENTER	1.5%	88.5	C	CA	OROVILLE	126	—
1756	ALDEN COURT NURSING CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	88.5	A	MA	FAIRHAVEN	142	—
1757	Clifton Springs Hospital and Clinic Extended Care	1.5%	88.5	A	NY	Clifton Springs	108	—
1758	WELLBROOKE OF SOUTH BEND	1.5%	88.5	D	IN	SOUTH BEND	70	TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
1759	HERMITAGE HEALTH CENTER	1.5%	88.5	B	TN	ELIZABETHTON	70	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
1760	OTTAWA CO RIVERVIEW NURSING HO	1.4%	88.5	B	OH	OAK HARBOR	115	CONCEPT REHAB INC
1761	NEW YORK STATE VETERANS HOME AT MONTROSE	1.4%	88.5	C	NY	MONTROSE	252	—
1762	Scotia Village - SNF	1.4%	88.5	A	NC	Laurinburg	58	—
1763	QUABOAG REHABILITATION & SKILLED CARE FACILITY	1.4%	88.5	A	MA	WEST BROOKFIELD	166	ASCENTRIA CARE ALLIANCE INC
1764	Nazareth Home Clifton	1.4%	88.5	A	KY	Louisville	113	—
1765	SKILLED NURSING FACILITY AT NORTH HILL (THE)	1.4%	88.5	A	MA	NEEDHAM	72	—
1766	PRAIRIE MAISON	1.4%	88.4	C	WI	PRAIRIE DU CHIEN	50	—
1767	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOME OF OSCEOLA, INC	1.4%	88.4	B	WI	OSCEOLA	40	CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY HOMES AND SERVICES INC
1768	HOLLENBECK PALMS	1.4%	88.4	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	106	—
1769	FARMINGTON PRESBYTERIAN MANOR	1.4%	88.4	B	MO	FARMINGTON	90	PRESBYTERIAN MANORS OF MID AMERICA INC
1770	FLATROCK RIVER LODGE	1.4%	88.4	C	IN	RUSHVILLE	63	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
1771	HENSLEY NURSING & REHAB	1.4%	88.4	A	OK	SAYRE	67	—
1772	HIGH VIEW REHABILITATION AND LIVING CENTER	1.4%	88.4	B	ME	MADAWASKA	51	—
1773	The NM Behavioral Health Institute at Las Vegas	1.4%	88.4	A	NM	Las Vegas	176	STATE OF NEW MEXICO
1774	Fahrney-Keedy Memorial Home	1.4%	88.4	B	MD	BOONSBORO	106	FAHRNEY KEEDY MEMORIAL HOME INC
1775	OLLIE STEELE BURDEN MANOR	1.4%	88.4	C	LA	BATON ROUGE	174	OUR LADY OF THE LAKE HOSPITAL INC
1776	WESTMINSTER-CANTERBURY OF LYNCHBURG INC	1.4%	88.4	A	VA	LYNCHBURG	80	—
1777	Edgewater Haven Nursing Home	1.4%	88.4	A	WI	Port Edwards	50	—
1778	LEXINGTON NURSING HOME, INC.	1.4%	88.4	A	OK	LEXINGTON	70	—
1779	NESHAMINY MANOR HOME	1.4%	88.4	A	PA	WARRINGTON	360	—
1780	Laurens Care Center	1.4%	88.4	A	IA	Laurens	38	—
1781	NEVADA STATE VETERANS HOME - BOULDER CITY	1.4%	88.4	B	NV	BOULDER CITY	180	—
1782	MyMichigan Medical Center Sault	1.4%	88.4	A	MI	Sault Ste. Marie	51	—
1783	Community Memorial Health Center	1.4%	88.4	B	IA	Hartley	62	—
1784	COLUMBIA BASIN HOSPITAL	1.4%	88.3	A	WA	EPHRATA	12	—
1785	WILLIAM BREMAN JEWISH HOME, THE	1.4%	88.3	A	GA	ATLANTA	96	—
1786	St. Joseph's Hospital - Skilled Nursing Facility	1.4%	88.3	A	NY	Elmira	85	—
1787	Tioga Community Care Center	1.4%	88.3	A	LA	Pineville	154	COMMCARE MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
1788	GROVER C DILS MEDICAL CENTER SNF	1.4%	88.3	A	NV	CALIENTE	16	—
1789	Harvard Rest Haven	1.4%	88.3	B	NE	Harvard	30	—
1790	AVE MARIA HOME	1.4%	88.3	A	TN	BARTLETT	100	—
1791	ROYAL OF COTUIT	1.4%	88.3	C	MA	MASHPEE	120	—
1792	Davis and McDaniel Veterans Care Center	1.4%	88.3	C	VA	ROANOKE	180	—
1793	Glen Rose Nursing and Rehab Center	1.4%	88.3	F	TX	Glen Rose	0	—
1794	THE MISSION AT BLUE SKIES OF TEXAS EAST	1.4%	88.3	B	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	AIR FORCE VILLAGE INC
1795	PARKLAND MANOR LIVING CENTER	1.4%	88.3	B	OK	PRAGUE	78	—
1796	CHAPEL POINTE AT CARLISLE	1.4%	88.3	A	PA	CARLISLE	59	—
1797	Burford Manor	1.4%	88.2	B	OK	Davis	73	—
1798	Three Links Care Center	1.4%	88.2	B	MN	NORTHFIELD	92	—
1799	JEFF DAVIS LIVING CENTER, LLC	1.4%	88.2	B	LA	JENNINGS	120	—
1800	CELEBRATE SENIOR LIVING NILES	1.4%	88.2	A	IL	NILES	55	—

Showing 1,751–1,800 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.