Reads as: riskier than 2.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
VA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.96
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.30
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.01
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.94
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
74.8
4.96
0.47
1.02
3.47
5.01
0.0%
2025Q3
92
76.3
5.05
0.40
1.12
3.54
5.08
0.0%
2025Q2
91
76.2
5.04
0.44
1.08
3.52
5.10
0.0%
2025Q1
90
76.1
5.08
0.45
1.14
3.49
5.11
0.0%
2024Q4
92
76.3
5.12
0.53
1.10
3.49
5.13
0.0%
2024Q3
92
75.9
5.03
0.53
1.09
3.41
5.03
0.0%
2024Q2
91
76.1
4.86
0.49
1.05
3.33
4.72
0.0%
2024Q1
91
74.7
5.21
0.47
1.16
3.59
5.23
0.0%
2023Q4
92
74.7
5.55
0.67
1.27
3.62
5.23
0.0%
2023Q3
92
75.5
4.74
0.54
1.05
3.16
4.94
0.0%
2023Q2
91
76.4
4.85
0.50
1.06
3.29
4.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
76.2
4.34
0.41
0.88
3.05
4.38
0.0%
2022Q4
92
75.6
4.70
0.41
1.03
3.26
4.75
0.0%
2022Q3
92
70.8
5.01
0.51
1.08
3.43
5.00
0.0%
2022Q2
91
72.3
5.22
0.50
1.04
3.68
5.08
0.0%
2022Q1
90
72.9
5.66
0.48
1.13
4.04
5.53
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
6
D × 5E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-02-08
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-03-03
2023-02-08
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-03-03
2021-05-05
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2021-05-21
2021-05-05
Health
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
D
2021-05-21
2021-05-05
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2021-05-21
2019-06-05
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2019-06-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WESTMINSTER-CANTERBURY OF LYNCHBURG, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
AMES, PATTIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
BOREL, MARCUS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
BRADFORD, PAMELA
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
CONZEN, ELIZABETH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2010-02-08
current
pecos_ownership
CONZEN, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-02-18
current
pecos_ownership
FRANTZ, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
FRAZIER, DANIEL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
GILES, BECKY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
HUYETT, SEAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
HUYETT, SEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, MELISSA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, ANGELA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
LAUNDON, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
LOCKRIDGE, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
LORD, ARCHIBALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
MCVEIGH, ANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-02-21
current
pecos_ownership
O'BRIAN, ROBERT
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
PERKINS, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-02-25
current
pecos_ownership
SANFORD, MARIANNE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-19
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, PAUL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2005-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEVENS, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-20
current
pecos_ownership
STROSNIDER, MARK
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-24
current
pecos_ownership
SWEENEY, LORI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
TURPIN, MELINDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ANGELA JONES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE MCVEIGH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BECKY GILES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH CALLAHAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2015-09-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH CONZEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-02-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH LAUNDON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE VERMILYA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MONTGOMERY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI SWEENEY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY ELLEN SYDNOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELINDA TURPIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2000-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA JOHNSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL SHELTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL SHELTON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2001-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LOCKRIDGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-02-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN HUYETT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-05-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN ACKLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS STEVENS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM PAXTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM PERKINS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-02-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM STUART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 51680
acs median gross
0
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
fmr
0
$1,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51680
acs median gross
1
$911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
fmr
1
$1,033
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51680
acs median gross
2
$1,028
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
fmr
2
$1,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51680
acs median gross
3
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
fmr
3
$1,635
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51680
acs median gross
4
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
fmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 51680
acs median gross
5
$1,834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
acs median gross
$1,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 51680
acs recent mover gross
$1,251
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs median gross
1
$833
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs median gross
2
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs median gross
3
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs median gross
4
$2,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs median gross
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 24503
acs recent mover gross
$1,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 24503
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 110
2
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 90
2
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
safmr
2
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 110
3
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 90
3
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
safmr
3
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 110
4
$1,837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
payment standard 90
4
$1,503
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 24503
safmr
4
$1,670
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.