Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,701–1,750

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1701	Hazel I Findlay Country Manor	1.5%	88.9	A	MI	Saint Johns	150	—
1702	Methodist Manor Retirement Community	1.5%	88.9	A	IA	Storm Lake	93	—
1703	JNH-JAQUITH INN	1.5%	88.9	A	MS	WHITFIELD	45	—
1704	ST LUKES HOME	1.5%	88.9	A	ND	DICKINSON	88	—
1705	SUMMIT SQUARE	1.5%	88.9	A	VA	WAYNESBORO	18	—
1706	JEWISH HOME AT ROCKLEIGH	1.5%	88.9	A	NJ	ROCKLEIGH	196	—
1707	ALTENHEIM	1.5%	88.9	A	OH	STRONGSVILLE	128	—
1708	ELIZABETH SETON	1.5%	88.9	A	MA	WELLESLEY	84	—
1709	ROLAND PARK PLACE	1.5%	88.9	A	MD	BALTIMORE	16	—
1710	HEALTH CENTER AT THE HILL AT WHITEMARSH, THE	1.5%	88.9	A	PA	LAFAYETTE HILL	60	—
1711	Eastside Health and Rehabilitation Center	1.5%	88.8	A	IL	PITTSFIELD	92	—
1712	AVIR AT PITTSBURG	1.5%	88.8	C	TX	PITTSBURG	0	TITUS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1713	NORTHERN METROPOLITAN RES HEALTH CARE FACILITY INC	1.5%	88.8	A	NY	MONSEY	120	—
1714	WASHINGTON COUNTY NURSING HOME	1.5%	88.8	A	CO	AKRON	40	—
1715	Akron Care Center, INC	1.5%	88.8	A	IA	Akron	45	LTC ACCOUNTING SERVICES LLC
1716	Dunlap Specialty Care	1.5%	88.8	D	IA	Dunlap	46	CARE INITIATIVES
1717	TOWN HALL ESTATES ARLINGTON, INC.	1.5%	88.8	F	TX	Arlington	116	—
1718	LISNER LOUISE DICKSON HURTHOME	1.5%	88.8	A	DC	WASHINGTON	60	—
1719	Crowell Memorial Home	1.5%	88.8	B	NE	Blair	74	—
1720	Douglas County Health Center	1.5%	88.7	A	NE	Omaha	254	—
1721	PALEMON GASKINS MEM NSG HOME	1.5%	88.7	A	GA	OCILLA	30	—
1722	JEROLD PHELPS COMM HOSP SNF	1.5%	88.7	A	CA	GARBERVILLE	17	—
1723	THE REUTLINGER COMMUNITY	1.5%	88.7	B	CA	DANVILLE	60	ESKATON PROPERTIES INCORPORATED
1724	East Troy Manor	1.5%	88.7	C	WI	EAST TROY	50	CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
1725	Meadow Brook Medical Care Facility	1.5%	88.7	A	MI	Bellaire	133	—
1726	LEE MEMORIAL HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING UNIT	1.5%	88.7	C	FL	FORT MYERS	18	—
1727	FRIENDSHIP VILLAGE OF TEMPE	1.5%	88.7	A	AZ	TEMPE	128	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1728	Lake Winona Manor	1.5%	88.7	B	MN	WINONA	80	WINONA HEALTH SERVICES
1729	ST. MARY'S HOSPITAL	1.5%	88.7	B	WV	HUNTINGTON	19	—
1730	WILLOWCREEK REHAB AND NURSING	1.5%	88.7	C	TX	ABILENE	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1731	ALTON MEMORIAL REHAB & THERAPY	1.5%	88.6	C	IL	ALTON	64	BETHESDA HEALTH GROUP INC
1732	PARKER AT SOMERSET, INC	1.5%	88.6	B	NJ	SOMERSET	120	—
1733	Hilltop Estates	1.5%	88.6	A	NE	Gothenburg	64	—
1734	Holmes Lake Rehabilitation & Care Center	1.5%	88.6	D	NE	Lincoln	97	—
1735	TIDWELL LIVING CENTER	1.5%	88.6	A	OK	WILBURTON	55	—
1736	FELLOWSHIP MANOR	1.5%	88.6	A	PA	WHITEHALL	121	—
1737	JEROME HOME	1.5%	88.6	A	CT	NEW BRITAIN	94	—
1738	GLENWOOD VILLAGE CARE CENTER	1.5%	88.6	A	MN	GLENWOOD	64	KNUTE NELSON
1739	Eventide Crete	1.5%	88.6	B	NE	Crete	38	EVENTIDE
1740	HOLZER SENIOR CARE CENTER	1.5%	88.6	C	OH	BIDWELL	41	HOLZER HEALTH SYSTEM
1741	GULFPORT NURSING CENTER	1.5%	88.6	C	FL	PASADENA	126	—
1742	LAKEWOOD MANOR	1.5%	88.6	A	VA	RICHMOND	96	VIRGINIA BAPTIST HOMES INC
1743	RICHARD A. ANDERSON (STATE OF TEXAS VETERANS LAND	1.5%	88.6	A	TX	HOUSTON	120	—
1744	THE KINGS DAUGHTERS AND SONS	1.5%	88.6	A	TN	BARTLETT	108	—
1745	THE VIRGINIA HOME	1.5%	88.6	A	VA	RICHMOND	130	—
1746	Resthaven Care Center	1.5%	88.6	A	MI	Holland	145	—
1747	BRADY WEST REHAB & NURSING	1.5%	88.6	C	TX	BRADY	0	—
1748	OUR LADY OF PEACE NURSING CARE RESIDENCE	1.5%	88.6	C	NY	LEWISTON	250	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
1749	CONCORD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.5%	88.6	A	NY	BROOKLYN	140	—
1750	JEFFERSON DAVIS COMMUNITY HOSPITAL ECF	1.5%	88.6	A	MS	PRENTISS	55	FORREST COUNTY GENERAL HOSPITAL

Showing 1,701–1,750 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.