Screener / 335843

OUR LADY OF PEACE NURSING CARE RESIDENCE

snfNY

5285 LEWISTON ROAD, LEWISTON, NY 14092 · CCN 335843 · chain ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE

Composite

68.2 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

250

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 68.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 ML signals7 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies11 Licensure0 Ownership15 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent32

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
financial risk	98.5	92.2	0.30	0.2308	22.73	in index
billing conduct	67.1	46.3	0.30	0.2308	15.48	in index
staffing risk	49.8	49.9	0.25	0.1923	9.58	in index
chow risk	61.4	60.3	0.15	0.1154	7.08	in index
regulatory risk	1.5	1.0	0.30	0.2308	0.35	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	5 chains	HEALTH DIMENSIONS CONSULTING INC	14 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	73% fined	SHADBOLT ERIN	11 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	73% fined	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE	11 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	73% fined	SMOOT KENNETH	11 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	73% fined	MUSGRAVE LISA	11 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	57% fined	MEDICAL SOLUTIONS LLC	14 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	40% fined	HEALTH DIMENSIONS CONSULTING INC	20 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	46.3	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	25.0	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	95.5	F	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	92.2	F	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	1.5	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	0.8	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	1.0	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	49.9	C	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	82.9	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	62.9	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	75.2	D	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	90.6	F	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	3.4	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	3.4	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	49.9	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	49.9	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

0.8%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

58.1

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	-1.24
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Chain size (log)	2.83	+0.20
Facility size (log beds)	5.53	-0.18
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

1.5%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

88.6

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	+1.62
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Chain size (log)	2.83	-0.45
Occupancy	0.65	+0.40
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Facility size (log beds)	5.53	-0.24
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Staffing trend, last 4 quarters	-0.30	-0.17

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	NY median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.27	3.33	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.34	0.43	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.01	3.03	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.38	3.44	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	163.5	3.27	0.34	1.03	1.90	3.01	8.1%
2025Q3	92	148.7	3.45	0.34	1.00	2.12	3.31	18.7%
2025Q2	91	141.5	3.56	0.39	0.99	2.17	3.43	27.1%
2025Q1	90	141.1	3.55	0.35	1.02	2.18	3.46	27.8%
2024Q4	92	132.7	3.58	0.31	1.11	2.16	3.37	25.8%
2024Q3	92	119.0	3.36	0.35	0.95	2.05	3.19	17.8%
2024Q2	91	120.0	3.32	0.35	0.94	2.03	3.17	19.7%
2024Q1	91	121.9	3.36	0.39	0.92	2.05	3.17	25.6%
2023Q4	92	119.8	3.55	0.39	0.94	2.22	3.36	25.1%
2023Q3	92	122.0	3.43	0.40	0.92	2.12	3.27	24.8%
2023Q2	91	123.5	3.43	0.41	0.90	2.12	3.25	20.6%
2023Q1	90	123.3	3.49	0.38	0.94	2.17	3.35	20.3%
2022Q4	92	129.2	3.42	0.37	0.98	2.07	3.31	21.9%
2022Q3	92	123.9	3.46	0.35	0.96	2.15	3.25	15.6%
2022Q2	91	117.4	3.42	0.34	1.00	2.07	3.19	10.8%
2022Q1	90	112.5	3.50	0.41	1.08	2.00	3.17	9.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

B × 1C × 1D × 8G × 1

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2024-10-15	Health	F0607	Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.	B	2024-12-13
2024-10-15	Health	F0677	Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.	D	2024-12-13
2024-10-15	Health	F0836	Ensure the facility is licensed under applicable State and local law and operates and provides services in compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local laws, regulations, and codes, and with accepted professional standards.	C	2024-12-13
2023-07-25	Health · complaint	F0610	Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.	D	2023-09-22
2023-07-25	Health · complaint	F0656	Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.	D	2023-09-22
2022-11-23	Health	F0600	Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.	G	2023-01-20
2022-11-23	Health	F0610	Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.	D	2023-01-20
2022-11-23	Health	F0689	Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.	D	2023-01-20
2020-01-10	Health	F0689	Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.	D	2020-02-25
2020-01-10	Health	F0756	Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.	D	2020-02-25
2020-01-10	Health	F0758	Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.	D	2020-02-25

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2015-07-01	current	pecos_ownership
BOTHWELL, DENISE	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2023-09-05	current	pecos_ownership
HEALTH DIMENSIONS CONSULTING INC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-03-13	current	pecos_ownership
MEDICAL SOLUTIONS LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-06-14	current	pecos_ownership
MINIMUM DATA SET CONSULTANT LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2021-06-07	current	pecos_ownership
MUSGRAVE, LISA	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
SAUVAGEAU, PHILIP	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2012-04-01	current	pecos_ownership
SHADBOLT, ERIN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
SHIFTMED, LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2021-06-07	current	pecos_ownership
SMOOT, KENNETH	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
DENISE BOTHWELL	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2023-09-05	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ERIN SHADBOLT	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
KENNETH SMOOT	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LISA MUSGRAVE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PHILIP SAUVAGEAU	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2012-04-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$3,247,454	—	—	—	$1,067,976	1	—
2023-12-31	$3,958,945	—	—	—	$1,338,163	1	—
2022-12-31	$3,584,165	—	—	—	$1,339,732	1	—
2021-12-31	$4,638,879	—	—	—	—	1	—
2020-12-31	$4,843,006	—	—	—	—	1	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — NY snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2024-06-01	PINE FOREST CARE CENTER FOR REHAB & HEALTHCARE	—	—	—	76	HILAIRE CARE NETWORK LLC
2024-05-17	Fairport Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	—	—	—	196	FAIRPORT SNF LLC
2024-05-09	MARIA REGINA REHABILITATION AND NURSING	—	—	—	188	OPTIMA CARE BRENTWOOD LLC
2024-02-01	TUPPER LAKE CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	60	TUPPER LAKE CENTER LLC
2023-08-31	WEST VILLAGE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	—	—	—	105	VILLAGE ACQUISITION I LLC
2023-06-23	Crest Manor Living and Rehabilitation Center	—	—	—	80	CREST OPCO LLC
2023-06-23	East Side Nursing Home	—	—	—	80	EASTSIDE OPCO LLC
2023-05-05	SPRINGVALE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	200	THE PREMIER CENTER FOR REHABILITATION OF WESTCHESTER LLC
2023-04-21	LIVINGSTON HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	LIVINGSTON TWO OPERATIONS LLC
2023-01-12	EDEN REHABILITATION NURSING CENTER	—	—	—	40	EDRNC OPERATING LLC
2023-01-01	DUNKIRK REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	—	—	—	40	DURNC OPERATING LLC
2022-09-12	ROSS CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	135	ROSS OPCO LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 36063	acs median gross	0	$625	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	fmr	0	$1,105	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063	acs median gross	1	$691	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	fmr	1	$1,139	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063	acs median gross	2	$915	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	fmr	2	$1,343	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063	acs median gross	3	$1,143	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	fmr	3	$1,640	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063	acs median gross	4	$1,088	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	fmr	4	$1,869	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 36063	acs median gross	5	$1,027	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	acs median gross		$899	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 36063	acs recent mover gross		$1,069	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14092	acs median gross	1	$911	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14092	acs median gross	2	$1,122	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14092	acs median gross	3	$2,117	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 14092	acs median gross		$977	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 14092	payment standard 110	0	$1,188	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 90	0	$972	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	safmr	0	$1,080	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 110	1	$1,221	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 90	1	$999	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	safmr	1	$1,110	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 110	2	$1,441	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 90	2	$1,179	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	safmr	2	$1,310	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 110	3	$1,760	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 90	3	$1,440	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	safmr	3	$1,600	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 110	4	$2,002	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	payment standard 90	4	$1,638	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 14092	safmr	4	$1,820	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.