Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

1,401–1,450

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
1401	Pleasantview Home	1.9%	90.9	A	IA	Kalona	66	—
1402	DENISON NURSING AND REHAB	1.9%	90.9	B	TX	DENISON	0	—
1403	METHODIST HEALTH AND REHAB	1.9%	90.9	A	AR	FORT SMITH	145	—
1404	Edison Christian Health Center	1.9%	90.8	A	MI	Grand Rapids	136	—
1405	CITIZENS CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF FREDERI	1.9%	90.8	A	MD	FREDERICK	170	—
1406	PERMIAN RESIDENTIAL CARE CENTER	1.9%	90.8	B	TX	ANDREWS	0	ANDREWS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
1407	ST LUKE LIVING CENTER	1.9%	90.8	A	KS	MARION	32	—
1408	Wayne Health Care	1.9%	90.8	A	NY	Newark	182	—
1409	BURNETT MEDICAL CENTER	1.9%	90.8	A	WI	GRANTSBURG	50	—
1410	MISSOURI SLOPE	1.9%	90.8	B	ND	BISMARCK	192	—
1411	Mountainview Nursing Home	1.9%	90.8	C	SC	Spartanburg	132	—
1412	ST PATRICKS HOME	1.9%	90.8	B	NY	BRONX	264	—
1413	IMMANUEL SKILLED CARE CENTER	1.9%	90.8	C	MT	KALISPELL	155	—
1414	FLANDREAU SANTEE SIOUX TRIBE CARE CENTER	1.9%	90.8	B	SD	FLANDREAU	42	—
1415	ARCHIE HENDRICKS SENIOR SKILLED NURSING FACILITY	1.9%	90.8	A	AZ	SELLS	60	—
1416	MAUNALANI NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	90.8	D	HI	HONOLULU	100	—
1417	Lake Marion Nursing Facility	1.9%	90.7	A	SC	Summerton	88	CLARENDON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1418	Franciscan Woods	1.9%	90.7	C	WI	BROOKFIELD	110	ASCENSION HEALTH SENIOR CARE
1419	ST PATRICK'S RESIDENCE	1.9%	90.7	B	IL	NAPERVILLE	209	—
1420	Saint Elizabeth Home East Greenwich	1.9%	90.7	B	RI	East Greenwich	168	—
1421	YUKIO OKUTSU STATE VETERANS HOME	1.9%	90.7	B	HI	HILO	95	HAWAII HEALTH SYSTEMS CORPORATION
1422	COVE'S EDGE INC	1.9%	90.7	C	ME	DAMARISCOTTA	76	MAINEHEALTH SERVICES
1423	ELON MANOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	1.9%	90.7	B	FL	TAMPA	96	—
1424	Cypress Glen Retirement Community	1.9%	90.7	A	NC	Greenville	6	LIFE CARE SERVICES LLC
1425	THE SPRINGS NURSING & REHAB CENTER	1.9%	90.7	A	VA	HOT SPRINGS	60	KISSITO HEALTHCARE INC
1426	CROUSE COMMUNITY CENTER INC	1.9%	90.7	B	NY	MORRISVILLE	120	—
1427	FRIENDS EXTENDED CARE CENTER	1.9%	90.7	A	OH	YELLOW SPRINGS	59	—
1428	JNH-JEFFERSON INN	1.9%	90.7	A	MS	WHITFIELD	90	—
1429	SILVERCREST	1.9%	90.7	C	NY	JAMAICA	320	—
1430	Lasata Care Center	1.9%	90.7	B	WI	Cedarburg	106	—
1431	Bayou Vista Nursing and Rehab Center	1.8%	90.6	A	LA	BUNKIE	92	—
1432	WINKLER COURT	1.8%	90.6	D	FL	FORT MYERS	120	—
1433	OHIO LIVING WESTMINSTER-THURBER	1.8%	90.6	B	OH	COLUMBUS	35	—
1434	HARBOR'S EDGE	1.8%	90.6	A	VA	NORFOLK	33	—
1435	Healthcare at College Park, LLC	1.8%	90.6	A	GA	COLLEGE PARK	100	—
1436	ADAMS HERITAGE	1.8%	90.6	A	IN	MONROEVILLE	61	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
1437	Brookestone of David City	1.8%	90.6	A	NE	David City	86	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
1438	LLANFAIR HOUSE CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	1.8%	90.6	F	NJ	WAYNE	180	—
1439	Colonial Haven	1.8%	90.6	B	NE	BEEMER	34	RURAL HEALTH DEVELOPMENT INC
1440	Hayes Residence	1.8%	90.6	C	MN	SAINT PAUL	40	—
1441	Davis Health Care Center	1.8%	90.6	B	NC	Wilmington	115	—
1442	NEW GLARUS HOME	1.8%	90.6	B	WI	NEW GLARUS	100	—
1443	Prairie Gate	1.8%	90.6	C	IA	Council Bluffs	72	PHS MANAGEMENT LLC
1444	ROME MEMORIAL HOSPITAL, INC - R H C F	1.8%	90.6	A	NY	ROME	80	—
1445	Accura Healthcare of Neligh	1.8%	90.6	C	NE	Neligh	70	—
1446	St John specialty Care Center	1.8%	90.6	D	PA	MARS	150	—
1447	HITZ MEMORIAL HOME	1.8%	90.6	B	IL	ALHAMBRA	59	—
1448	Harmar Place Nursing and Rehabilitation	1.8%	90.6	D	OH	MARIETTA	86	UNITED CHURCH HOMES INC
1449	MEMORIAL HOSPITAL LTCU (VILLAGE MANOR)	1.8%	90.6	A	KS	ABILENE	75	SALINA REGIONAL HEALTH CENTER INC
1450	Rotary Senior Living	1.8%	90.6	C	IA	Eagle Grove	46	—

Showing 1,401–1,450 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.