Reads as: riskier than 20.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GRAPE TREE MEDICAL STAFFING LLC
55 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
ECSI INC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PRN HEALTH SERVICES INC
6 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.11
3.15
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.41
0.46
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
2.96
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.12
3.20
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
59.7
3.11
0.41
0.42
2.28
3.10
19.7%
2025Q3
92
58.5
3.31
0.51
0.44
2.35
3.14
13.6%
2025Q2
91
58.9
3.51
0.52
0.44
2.55
3.50
27.7%
2025Q1
90
59.5
3.35
0.62
0.44
2.29
3.33
27.1%
2024Q4
92
55.2
3.52
0.56
0.50
2.45
3.44
38.0%
2024Q3
92
57.3
3.69
0.63
0.50
2.56
3.56
42.8%
2024Q2
91
56.1
3.52
0.62
0.43
2.47
3.34
38.7%
2024Q1
91
51.3
3.60
0.60
0.62
2.37
3.30
27.5%
2023Q4
92
48.2
3.54
0.64
0.61
2.29
3.31
21.1%
2023Q3
92
46.9
3.19
0.64
0.43
2.13
2.95
14.6%
2023Q2
91
50.6
2.98
0.47
0.39
2.12
2.75
12.8%
2023Q1
90
52.2
2.90
0.61
0.32
1.97
2.70
12.6%
2022Q4
92
48.1
3.40
0.59
0.43
2.37
3.16
11.0%
2022Q3
92
49.1
3.30
0.53
0.46
2.31
3.09
9.8%
2022Q2
91
49.7
3.13
0.55
0.40
2.18
2.98
9.0%
2022Q1
90
50.2
2.97
0.56
0.38
2.03
2.80
8.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
6
D × 5F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-02
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-20
2026-04-02
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-04-20
2026-04-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-04-20
2026-04-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-20
2025-03-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-04-11
2024-02-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
60
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ACCESS TECHNOLOGIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
BCG HOLDINGS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BENDER, VICKIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-05-26
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE STONE THERAPY INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BONTRAGER, JULIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIGHTON CONSULTING GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CATTAIL BCG LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CATTAIL CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
CATTAIL INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANKER, MICHELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-12-14
current
pecos_ownership
DROBOT, ANN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
EBERLY, SCOTT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
EBERLY, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ECSI INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GINGERICH, MIDORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-12-14
current
pecos_ownership
GRAPE TREE MEDICAL STAFFING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-10-21
current
pecos_ownership
HERSHBERGER, JAMES D
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-07-07
current
pecos_ownership
HERSHBERGER, RENEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
HERSHBERGER, RONNIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
IOWA HEALTH CARE ASSOCIATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JANECEK, JESSICA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
KAUFFMAN, MERLIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, KENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
LOGAN, MARLAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLER, WENDELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRN HEALTH SERVICES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMER, HERBER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
RILEY, SEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
RILEY, SEAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
SCHROCK, KAREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
SOJKA, JULIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWARTZENDRUBER, LARRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
TROYER, PATRICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
USDA DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE RURAL DEVELOPMENT
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2025-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BURKE LTD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS & COMPANY PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
YODER, DEBRA J
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANN DROBOT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA J YODER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HERBER RAMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES D HERSHBERGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2011-07-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA JANECEK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE BONTRAGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE SOJKA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN SCHROCK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KENT LEHMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY SWARTZENDRUBER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARLAN LOGAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MERLIN KAUFFMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE DANKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-12-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIDORI GINGERICH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-12-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA TROYER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RENEE HERSHBERGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONNIE HERSHBERGER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT EBERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT EBERLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN RILEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEAN RILEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKIE BENDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-05-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WENDELL MILLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 19183
acs median gross
0
$700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
fmr
0
$728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19183
acs median gross
1
$624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
fmr
1
$733
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19183
acs median gross
2
$847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
fmr
2
$962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19183
acs median gross
3
$1,051
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
fmr
3
$1,191
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19183
acs median gross
4
$933
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
fmr
4
$1,274
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 19183
acs median gross
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 19183
acs recent mover gross
$857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52247
acs median gross
1
$525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52247
acs median gross
2
$828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52247
acs median gross
3
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52247
acs median gross
$845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 52247
acs recent mover gross
$686
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 52247
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 110
1
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 90
1
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
safmr
1
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 110
2
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 90
2
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
safmr
2
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 52247
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.