Reads as: riskier than 48.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHEPHERD DAVID
8 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.98
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.74
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.05
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
61.8
2.98
0.74
0.46
1.77
2.79
16.5%
2025Q3
92
59.4
2.96
0.76
0.43
1.77
2.74
6.2%
2025Q2
91
58.7
3.04
0.69
0.59
1.76
2.78
9.2%
2025Q1
90
58.8
2.67
0.48
0.55
1.64
2.58
5.0%
2024Q4
92
59.8
2.88
0.54
0.51
1.84
2.75
6.7%
2024Q3
92
60.6
2.42
0.62
0.04
1.75
2.25
22.3%
2024Q2
91
56.0
2.07
0.56
0.00
1.50
1.96
8.1%
2024Q1
91
51.2
2.04
0.67
0.00
1.36
1.89
4.9%
2023Q4
92
48.1
2.44
0.61
0.01
1.83
2.11
10.2%
2023Q3
92
56.2
2.90
0.50
0.61
1.79
2.79
15.6%
2023Q2
91
59.3
2.86
0.48
0.72
1.66
2.68
12.4%
2023Q1
90
58.7
3.18
0.85
0.83
1.51
3.09
35.5%
2022Q4
92
58.7
2.46
0.47
0.57
1.43
2.44
24.0%
2022Q2
91
45.1
3.04
0.60
0.48
1.96
2.43
40.5%
2022Q1
90
51.4
2.61
0.49
0.35
1.76
2.29
24.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2026-03-28
2026-02-26
Health
F0923
Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both.
D
2026-03-28
2025-08-15
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
—
2024-02-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-22
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2023-11-01
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-11-13
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-11-01
2023-10-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-11-13
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2023-07-27
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-07-27
2023-06-27
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2023-07-27
2022-11-17
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2022-12-23
2022-11-17
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-12-27
2022-11-17
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-01-18
2022-11-17
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-12-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CUCHARRAS HOLDING LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CUCHARRAS HOLDING LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHRISTENSEN, COVEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLEGG, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-26
current
pecos_ownership
HOPKINS, AMBER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MADISON CREEK PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-11
current
pecos_ownership
SHEPHERD, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
TERRAZAS, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COVEY CHRISTENSEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2013-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CUCHARRAS HOLDING LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CUCHARRAS HOLDING LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
MADISON PARTNER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
AMBER HOPKINS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID SHEPHERD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-12-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA TERRAZAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL CLEGG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,180,508
—
$792,570
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,015,227
—
—
—
$22,262
2
propco
2022-12-31
$800,018
—
—
$10,304
$34,550
2
propco
2021-12-31
$705,150
—
—
$15,380
$87,893
2
propco
2020-12-31
$630,952
—
$169,573
—
—
8
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08041
acs median gross
0
$1,103
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
0
$1,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
1
$1,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
2
$1,587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
2
$1,735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
3
$2,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
3
$2,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
4
$2,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
4
$2,744
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
5
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs median gross
$1,696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs recent mover gross
$1,853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
0
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
2
$1,500
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
3
$1,958
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
4
$1,830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs median gross
$1,474
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80904
acs recent mover gross
$1,519
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80904
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
1
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
1
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
1
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
2
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
2
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
2
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 110
4
$2,662
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
payment standard 90
4
$2,178
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80904
safmr
4
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.