Reads as: riskier than 83.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.27
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.16
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
52.4
3.19
0.52
0.63
2.05
3.27
7.6%
2025Q3
92
52.2
3.28
0.53
0.66
2.08
3.26
10.6%
2025Q2
91
49.1
3.41
0.56
0.65
2.20
3.37
15.4%
2025Q1
90
47.2
3.43
0.58
0.65
2.21
3.33
10.9%
2024Q4
92
37.1
3.65
0.67
0.78
2.20
3.48
0.0%
2024Q3
92
37.3
3.35
0.71
0.65
1.99
3.20
0.0%
2024Q2
91
35.8
3.64
0.89
0.65
2.10
3.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
33.9
3.64
0.95
0.65
2.03
3.36
0.0%
2023Q4
92
32.5
3.58
1.04
0.48
2.06
3.34
0.0%
2023Q3
92
30.0
3.54
0.88
0.61
2.04
3.33
0.0%
2023Q2
91
29.3
3.56
0.78
0.65
2.13
3.40
0.0%
2023Q1
90
28.4
3.45
0.42
0.91
2.12
3.56
0.0%
2022Q4
92
30.4
3.40
0.60
0.71
2.09
3.46
0.0%
2022Q3
92
34.1
3.01
0.60
0.71
1.70
3.08
0.0%
2022Q2
91
41.3
3.40
0.55
0.96
1.89
3.31
0.0%
2022Q1
90
45.1
3.42
0.68
0.94
1.80
3.30
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 12E × 7F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-26
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2026-04-10
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0923
Have enough outside ventilation via a window or mechanical ventilation, or both.
D
2026-04-10
2024-03-27
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-04-18
2024-03-27
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
E
2024-04-18
2024-03-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-04-18
2024-03-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-18
2024-03-27
Health
F0947
Ensure nurse aides have the skills they need to care for residents, and give nurse aides education in dementia care and abuse prevention.
F
2024-04-18
2022-12-15
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
E
2023-01-09
2022-12-15
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-01-09
2022-12-15
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-01-09
2022-12-15
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-03-03
2022-12-15
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-01-09
2022-12-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-03-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
FITCH, CRAIG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
JORGENSEN, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-05
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ENDURA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AURORA SENIOR HOUSING OWNER LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
5%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
CRAIG FITCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JORGENSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-02-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
7
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$507,650
—
$374,164
—
—
4
—
2024-05-31
$137,494
—
—
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$329,984
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$374,618
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$493,320
—
—
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$182,700
—
—
—
—
4
—
2020-06-30
$1,826,182
$1,826,182
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08005
acs median gross
0
$1,660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
1
$1,577
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
2
$1,978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
3
$2,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
4
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
5
$2,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs median gross
$1,891
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs recent mover gross
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
0
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
1
$1,606
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
2
$1,943
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
3
$2,389
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
4
$2,823
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
5
$3,063
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs median gross
$1,842
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80014
acs recent mover gross
$1,897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80014
payment standard 110
0
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 90
0
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
safmr
0
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 110
1
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 90
1
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
safmr
1
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 110
2
$2,442
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 90
2
$1,998
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
safmr
2
$2,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 110
3
$3,201
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 90
3
$2,619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
safmr
3
$2,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 110
4
$3,564
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
payment standard 90
4
$2,916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80014
safmr
4
$3,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.