Reads as: riskier than 39.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
GAHM GREGORY
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.64
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.61
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.54
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.68
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
102.2
3.64
0.61
1.00
2.02
3.54
1.4%
2025Q3
92
99.2
3.76
0.54
1.08
2.14
3.62
0.4%
2025Q2
91
96.5
3.89
0.58
1.13
2.18
3.80
10.6%
2025Q1
90
95.2
3.81
0.47
1.27
2.08
3.66
1.3%
2024Q4
92
91.7
4.07
0.60
1.25
2.22
3.75
4.8%
2024Q3
92
98.8
3.89
0.62
1.12
2.15
3.55
4.4%
2024Q2
91
98.4
3.79
0.49
1.26
2.05
3.49
8.3%
2024Q1
91
98.0
3.49
0.50
1.13
1.86
3.24
8.0%
2023Q4
92
97.2
3.43
0.49
1.10
1.83
3.08
12.0%
2023Q3
92
95.7
3.40
0.56
1.17
1.68
3.15
17.8%
2023Q2
91
92.5
3.55
0.73
1.04
1.78
3.25
15.3%
2023Q1
90
91.0
3.64
0.71
1.15
1.79
3.21
8.1%
2022Q4
92
97.6
3.73
0.75
0.93
2.05
3.44
39.8%
2022Q3
92
98.0
3.54
0.69
0.93
1.92
3.25
26.0%
2022Q2
91
97.8
3.77
0.51
1.16
2.10
3.40
30.8%
2022Q1
90
91.2
3.88
0.54
1.19
2.16
3.59
28.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 15E × 9F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-11-07
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-11-27
2024-11-07
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2024-11-27
2023-05-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-06-26
2023-05-18
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2023-06-23
2023-05-18
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-06-23
2023-05-18
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2023-06-21
2023-05-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-06-12
2022-03-24
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2022-05-07
2022-03-24
Health
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
E
2022-05-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LITTLETON PROPERTY INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
LITTLETON PROPERTY INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ARAPAHOE LTC INVESTORS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
ARAPAHOE LTC INVESTORS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARAPAHOE LTC, INC.
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1995-07-25
current
pecos_ownership
BATSON, APRIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-02
current
pecos_ownership
CROSS, CINDY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1998-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
DENT, SARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
DENT, SARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLETCHER, TODD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
current
pecos_ownership
GAHM, GREGORY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
GAHM, GREGORY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY, TERRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
current
pecos_ownership
LAY, LISA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
current
pecos_ownership
LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1998-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, AUBREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1995-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
PRESTON, FORREST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-08-31
current
pecos_ownership
SCHMIDT, DEREK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-18
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWANKER, RICHARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
THURMOND, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
ZIEGLER, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLETON PROPERTY INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2022-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
LITTLETON PROPERTY INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-06-01
ended 2021-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
LITTLETON PROPERTY INVESTORS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2023-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORREST PRESTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
1995-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2000-08-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
APRIL BATSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-05-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUBREY PRESTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CINDY CROSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1998-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEREK SCHMIDT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-10-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORREST PRESTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY GAHM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY GAHM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2001-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ZIEGLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN THURMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-09-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA LAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD SWANKER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA DENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA DENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERRY HENRY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-08-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLETCHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-11-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-05-31
$2,252,918
$616,402
—
—
—
7
propco
2024-05-31
$2,057,912
$473,482
—
—
—
7
propco
2023-05-31
$2,179,825
$643,031
—
—
—
7
propco
2022-05-31
$2,450,529
$693,713
—
—
—
7
propco
2021-05-31
$2,517,188
$668,637
—
—
—
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08005
acs median gross
0
$1,660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
1
$1,577
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
2
$1,978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
3
$2,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
4
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
5
$2,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs median gross
$1,891
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs recent mover gross
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
0
$1,165
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
1
$1,389
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
2
$1,840
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
3
$2,215
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
4
$2,357
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs median gross
$1,672
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80120
acs recent mover gross
$2,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80120
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 110
1
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 90
1
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
safmr
1
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 110
2
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 90
2
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
safmr
2
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 110
3
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 90
3
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
safmr
3
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 110
4
$3,102
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
payment standard 90
4
$2,538
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80120
safmr
4
$2,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.