700 South Foothill Drive, Salt Lake City, UT 84113 · CCN 465150 · chain AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
Composite
3.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
81
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 3.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.59
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.94
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.54
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.61
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
74.6
3.59
0.94
0.23
2.42
3.54
1.4%
2025Q3
92
74.6
3.61
0.98
0.21
2.42
3.56
1.5%
2025Q2
91
74.6
3.65
0.98
0.22
2.44
3.57
7.4%
2025Q1
90
73.0
3.72
1.03
0.20
2.50
3.65
8.1%
2024Q4
92
69.8
3.75
1.04
0.18
2.53
3.77
9.0%
2024Q3
92
70.3
3.70
0.98
0.23
2.49
3.61
3.9%
2024Q2
91
72.3
3.52
0.93
0.18
2.40
3.39
3.3%
2024Q1
91
73.4
3.58
0.90
0.18
2.50
3.49
9.2%
2023Q4
92
73.2
3.39
0.84
0.26
2.29
3.33
27.1%
2023Q3
92
75.4
3.08
0.83
0.30
1.94
2.88
27.5%
2023Q2
91
72.9
3.28
0.81
0.31
2.15
3.24
27.6%
2023Q1
90
72.7
2.91
0.70
0.37
1.83
2.94
33.0%
2022Q4
92
75.5
3.06
0.70
0.35
2.01
3.02
41.3%
2022Q3
92
74.4
3.13
0.66
0.39
2.08
3.11
44.5%
2022Q2
91
75.8
3.36
0.82
0.39
2.15
3.21
46.2%
2022Q1
90
73.2
3.28
0.85
0.33
2.10
3.17
50.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2026-04-21
2026-03-19
Health
F0775
Keep complete, dated laboratory records in the resident's record.
D
2026-04-21
2026-03-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-04-21
2025-11-12
Health · complaint
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
G
2025-10-16
2024-02-28
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-03-14
2024-02-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-03-14
2024-02-28
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-14
2024-02-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-03-14
2024-02-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-14
2022-06-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-06-17
2022-06-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-06-29
2022-06-09
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2022-06-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVALON VA MANAGEMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON VETERANS SERVICES, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-06
current
pecos_ownership
BORISEVICH, MARIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
BRAEGGER, ANGELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
DANGERFIELD, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2008-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HASH, ALAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
HUEFTLE, KRISTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, BYRON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, SPENCER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, NICOLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
STATE OF UTAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATSON, LACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-07
current
pecos_ownership
WOLTIL, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON HOLDING INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON VA MANAGEMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON VETERANS SERVICES, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2003-09-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2012-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN HASH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE STUART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE STUART
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN SWINTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARL TIPPETS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-10-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE FRANKLIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DANGERFIELD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAROLD BURTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-08-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY OWENS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORALYN SNOW
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2012-07-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER COOKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WOLTIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEBASTIAN PAQUETTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49035
acs median gross
0
$1,256
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
fmr
0
$1,259
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49035
acs median gross
1
$1,328
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
fmr
1
$1,456
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49035
acs median gross
2
$1,605
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
fmr
2
$1,747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49035
acs median gross
3
$1,930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
fmr
3
$2,333
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49035
acs median gross
4
$2,187
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
fmr
4
$2,666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49035
acs median gross
5
$2,322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
acs median gross
$1,592
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49035
acs recent mover gross
$1,743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84113
payment standard 110
0
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 90
0
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
safmr
0
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 110
1
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 90
1
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
safmr
1
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 110
2
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 90
2
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
safmr
2
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 110
3
$2,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 90
3
$1,908
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
safmr
3
$2,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 110
4
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
payment standard 90
4
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84113
safmr
4
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.