2021 S Alverno Rd, Manitowoc, WI 54220 · CCN 525441 · chain EEF CAPITAL LLC
Composite
45.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
150
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 45.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
HELLMAN YOSEF
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
SILVERBERG NISANEL
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HELLMAN YOSEF
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
45% fined
HELLMAN YOSEF
20 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.56
3.60
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.56
3.49
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.56
3.65
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
105.7
3.56
0.55
0.61
2.40
3.56
0.0%
2025Q3
92
105.9
3.38
0.56
0.52
2.31
3.32
0.0%
2025Q2
91
115.1
3.27
0.53
0.49
2.25
3.25
0.0%
2025Q1
90
117.8
3.50
0.55
0.54
2.41
3.52
0.0%
2024Q4
92
115.4
3.51
0.48
0.55
2.48
3.55
0.0%
2024Q3
92
106.4
3.58
0.56
0.51
2.51
3.53
0.0%
2024Q2
91
107.3
3.60
0.58
0.56
2.47
3.52
1.8%
2024Q1
91
111.8
3.50
0.42
0.61
2.47
3.60
5.9%
2023Q4
92
114.1
3.52
0.43
0.64
2.44
3.53
17.4%
2023Q3
92
110.6
3.38
0.46
0.64
2.28
3.30
10.1%
2023Q2
91
112.9
3.28
0.45
0.58
2.26
3.20
7.1%
2023Q1
90
113.4
3.31
0.46
0.59
2.26
3.25
8.0%
2022Q4
92
112.1
3.20
0.41
0.58
2.22
3.16
7.6%
2022Q3
92
110.0
3.34
0.35
0.63
2.35
3.28
9.0%
2022Q2
91
114.5
3.58
0.45
0.76
2.38
3.40
9.6%
2022Q1
90
117.3
3.46
0.48
0.73
2.25
3.35
9.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-12-10
2025-10-01
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-11-10
2025-07-07
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-08-07
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-12-25
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-12-25
2024-11-26
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-25
2024-07-24
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-08-15
2024-07-24
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-08-16
2024-07-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-08-16
2023-09-27
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-10-25
2023-09-27
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-10-25
2023-09-27
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-10-25
2023-09-27
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-10-25
2023-09-27
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-10-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SNJ WISCONSIN LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
60%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
EEF CAPITAL LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, BENNY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLAFF, NACHUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SILVERBERG, NISANEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTEL, BRIANNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
CULP, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
GIRIYAPPA, PRADEEP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GIRIYAPPA, PRADEEP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
GRINDHEIM, CYNTHIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-02-27
current
pecos_ownership
HELLMAN, YOSEF
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANITOWOC PROPERTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
39%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENNY SCHLAFF
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NACHUM SCHLAFF
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NISANEL SILVERBERG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YOSEF HELLMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
11%
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIANNA CHRISTEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA GRINDHEIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-02-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN CULP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRADEEP GIRIYAPPA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRADEEP GIRIYAPPA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$681,055
—
—
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$626,172
—
—
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$654,415
—
—
—
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 55071
acs median gross
0
$783
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
fmr
0
$737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55071
acs median gross
1
$628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
fmr
1
$742
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55071
acs median gross
2
$848
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55071
acs median gross
3
$929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
fmr
3
$1,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55071
acs median gross
4
$983
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
fmr
4
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55071
acs median gross
5
$691
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
acs median gross
$797
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55071
acs recent mover gross
$954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
0
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
1
$640
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
2
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
3
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
4
$739
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
5
$668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs median gross
$810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 54220
acs recent mover gross
$949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 54220
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 110
1
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 90
1
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
safmr
1
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 110
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 90
3
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
safmr
3
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 110
4
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
payment standard 90
4
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 54220
safmr
4
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.