Screener / 395656

FREDERICK LIVING - CEDARWOOD

snfPA

2849 BIG ROAD, FREDERICK, PA 19435 · CCN 395656 · chain COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC

Composite

9.5 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 9.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 ML signals3 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies1 Licensure0 Ownership39 Related party1 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent28

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
financial risk	88.0	75.0	0.30	0.2308	20.31	in index
chow risk	54.6	52.7	0.15	0.1154	6.30	in index
staffing risk	12.5	12.6	0.25	0.1923	2.40	in index
billing conduct	0.0	0.0	0.30	0.2308	0.00	in index
regulatory risk	0.0	0.1	0.30	0.2308	0.00	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	13 chains	FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING	18 facilities
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	7 chains	PEARLSTEIN ROBERT	16 facilities
connection	Owner fleet enforcement cluster	45% fined	PEARLSTEIN ROBERT	20 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	0.0	A	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	25.0	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	80.5	F	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	75.0	D	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	6.8	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	1.1	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	0.1	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	12.6	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	89.0	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	69.0	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	63.3	C	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	74.4	D	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	0.1	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	0.1	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	12.6	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	12.6	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

1.1%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

60.6

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	-1.24
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
Occupancy	0.50	+0.56
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	4.22	-0.23
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

6.8%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

98.3

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	0.00	+1.62
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Occupancy	0.50	+1.03
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	4.22	-0.42
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Chain size (log)	1.61	+0.26
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	PA median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	4.22	3.38	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	1.00	0.45	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	4.19	3.27	3.11	—
Weekday total	4.23	3.43	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	30.7	4.22	1.00	1.00	2.21	4.19	15.3%
2025Q3	92	30.6	4.15	1.16	0.86	2.14	4.31	20.5%
2025Q2	91	30.1	4.12	0.99	0.97	2.17	4.29	14.2%
2025Q1	90	30.5	4.13	0.93	0.92	2.28	4.41	17.9%
2024Q4	92	31.3	3.92	1.00	0.73	2.18	4.20	14.2%
2024Q3	92	31.4	3.88	0.92	0.66	2.30	4.13	14.3%
2024Q2	91	31.7	3.88	1.17	0.68	2.04	3.69	14.4%
2024Q1	91	31.8	3.98	1.19	0.62	2.17	3.82	11.1%
2023Q4	92	31.9	3.96	1.23	0.61	2.13	3.80	11.5%
2023Q3	92	31.7	3.88	1.25	0.47	2.15	3.80	12.8%
2023Q2	91	31.9	3.99	1.44	0.34	2.21	3.88	12.8%
2023Q1	90	31.4	3.88	1.42	0.33	2.13	3.88	9.0%
2022Q4	92	31.0	4.02	1.42	0.30	2.30	4.01	11.0%
2022Q3	92	31.7	3.63	1.46	0.31	1.86	3.70	0.0%
2022Q2	91	31.0	3.98	1.39	0.40	2.19	4.01	3.0%
2022Q1	90	32.5	4.61	1.70	0.39	2.52	4.43	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 1

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2023-10-26	Health	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	D	2023-11-27

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
GARDEN SPOT COMMUNITIES	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-09-04	current	pecos_ownership
COVENANT ALLIANCE REHAB EAST LLC	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2016-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
FORSELL, MICHELLE	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2018-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
FORSELL, MICHELLE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-09-01	current	pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
FRIENDS SERVICES FOR THE AGING	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-09-04	current	pecos_ownership
GENUARDI, JOSEPH	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-03-01	current	pecos_ownership
HAGARTY, MICHAEL	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
HAGARTY, MICHAEL	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-09-04	current	pecos_ownership
HOHLFELD, SHARON	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
HOHLFELD, SHARON	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
LANDIS, JAMES	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
LEVENGOOD, GREGORY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2023-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
LEVENGOOD, GREGORY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
LINDSEY, STEPHEN	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
NASE, ROBERT	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2018-05-09	current	pecos_ownership
PEARLSTEIN, ROBERT	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
WEBER, NATHANIEL	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
WEIDNER, STIEVEN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2018-05-09	current	pecos_ownership
YORGEY, NATHAN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2016-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
YORGEY, NATHAN	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
GREGORY LEVENGOOD	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
GREGORY LEVENGOOD	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2023-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JAMES LANDIS	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOSEPH GENUARDI	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-03-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HAGARTY	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHAEL HAGARTY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-09-04	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHELLE FORSELL	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2017-09-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHELLE FORSELL	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2018-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
NATHAN YORGEY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
NATHAN YORGEY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2016-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
NATHANIEL WEBER	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2024-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ROBERT NASE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2018-05-09	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ROBERT PEARLSTEIN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2024-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SHARON HOHLFELD	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SHARON HOHLFELD	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2021-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
STEPHEN LINDSEY	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2024-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
STIEVEN WEIDNER	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2018-05-09	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$1,107,233	—	—	—	—	1	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — PA snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-06-01	MANOR AT ST LUKE VILLAGE,THE	—	—	—	104	1711 EAST BROAD STREET OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	PENNKNOLL VILLAGE	—	—	—	133	208 PENNKNOLL ROAD OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	MAPLEWOOD NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	180	MA OPERATING, LLC
2025-06-01	PAVILION AT ST LUKE VILLAGE, THE	—	—	—	120	1000 STACIE DRIVE OPCO LLC
2025-06-01	MANOR AT PENN VILLAGE, THE	—	—	—	159	51 ROUTE 204 OPCO LLC
2025-05-01	WYNCOTE CARE CENTER	—	—	—	58	WYNCOTE CARE LLC
2025-05-01	ONYX WELLNESS CENTER	—	—	—	119	ONYX WELLNESS CENTER LLC
2025-04-24	HAVENCREST REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	48	HAVENCREST REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
2025-04-24	BEAVER VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	120	BEAVER VALLEY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
2025-04-01	STROUDSBURG POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATIONLLC	—	—	—	174	STROUDSBURG POST ACUTE NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC
2025-02-01	EDENBROOK OF YEADON	—	—	—	190	YEADON SNF OPERATIONS, LLC
2025-02-01	EDENBROOK OF GREENWOOD HILL	—	—	—	160	POTTSVILLE SNF OPERATIONS, LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 42091	acs median gross	0	$1,347	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	fmr	0	$1,397	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091	acs median gross	1	$1,467	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	fmr	1	$1,520	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091	acs median gross	2	$1,781	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	fmr	2	$1,810	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091	acs median gross	3	$2,029	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	fmr	3	$2,170	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091	acs median gross	4	$2,103	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	fmr	4	$2,423	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091	acs median gross	5	$2,343	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	acs median gross		$1,683	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091	acs recent mover gross		$1,838	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 19435	payment standard 110	0	$1,287	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 90	0	$1,053	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	safmr	0	$1,170	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 110	1	$1,430	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 90	1	$1,170	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	safmr	1	$1,300	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 110	2	$1,716	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 90	2	$1,404	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	safmr	2	$1,560	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 110	3	$2,079	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 90	3	$1,701	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	safmr	3	$1,890	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 110	4	$2,398	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	payment standard 90	4	$1,962	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19435	safmr	4	$2,180	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.