Reads as: riskier than 73.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
BARNEY LEIGH
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
DAVIS DAVID
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
95 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
119 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
69 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
SIDHU SARFRAZ
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
CORBIN KATHY
75 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PROSKY DANNY
63 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
WI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.40
3.60
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.58
0.64
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.44
3.49
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.38
3.65
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
34.2
3.40
0.58
0.82
1.99
3.44
0.0%
2025Q3
92
34.3
3.34
0.57
0.82
1.94
3.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
34.8
3.10
0.41
0.96
1.73
2.95
0.0%
2025Q1
90
33.7
2.93
0.36
1.01
1.56
2.93
0.0%
2024Q4
92
33.7
3.13
0.27
0.97
1.89
3.05
0.0%
2024Q3
92
29.6
3.34
0.20
1.00
2.14
3.22
0.0%
2024Q2
91
25.9
3.36
0.29
0.92
2.16
3.33
0.0%
2024Q1
91
25.6
3.26
0.32
0.63
2.31
3.08
0.0%
2023Q4
92
24.2
3.58
0.51
0.68
2.38
3.40
0.0%
2023Q3
92
24.9
3.63
0.50
0.65
2.48
3.59
0.0%
2023Q2
91
25.8
3.21
0.46
0.59
2.16
3.18
0.0%
2023Q1
90
26.1
3.64
0.49
0.73
2.42
3.38
2.1%
2022Q4
92
25.5
3.88
0.47
0.80
2.62
3.39
3.4%
2022Q3
92
24.7
3.91
0.31
0.78
2.82
3.46
2.9%
2022Q1
90
25.0
4.41
0.51
0.70
3.20
3.84
0.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 15E × 1F × 6G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-01
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2026-05-01
2026-04-01
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-05-01
2025-06-06
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-06-23
2025-03-03
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-17
2025-01-09
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-02-03
2025-01-09
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2025-02-03
2023-11-30
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2023-12-22
2023-11-30
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-12-22
2023-11-30
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-22
2023-11-30
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2023-06-30
2023-11-30
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-12-22
2022-09-22
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2022-10-22
2022-09-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-10-22
2022-09-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-10-22
2022-09-22
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2022-10-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CONTINENTAL MERGER SUB LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPKO, ERIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPKO, ERIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
CONNER, GREGORY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORBIN, KATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FIGHTMASTER, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCNAMARA, DONALD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEHAFFEY, TODD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PIETROWSKI, CRISTINA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROSKY, DANNY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIDHU, SARFRAZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
SIDHU, SARFRAZ
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLHITE, GABRIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CRISTINA PIETROWSKI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANNY PROSKY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DAVIS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD MCNAMARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN CHAPKO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2026-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN CHAPKO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GABRIEL WILLHITE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY CONNER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY CORBIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEIGH BARNEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA FIGHTMASTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARFRAZ SIDHU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARFRAZ SIDHU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD MEHAFFEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2026-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$832,724
—
—
$370,705
$65,255
4
—
2023-12-31
$464,176
—
—
$135,718
$72,475
4
—
2022-12-31
$146,357
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$163,344
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$182,053
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 55025
acs median gross
0
$1,146
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
fmr
0
$1,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55025
acs median gross
1
$1,256
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
fmr
1
$1,482
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55025
acs median gross
2
$1,462
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
fmr
2
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55025
acs median gross
3
$1,725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
fmr
3
$2,236
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55025
acs median gross
4
$1,895
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
fmr
4
$2,509
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 55025
acs median gross
5
$1,706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
acs median gross
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 55025
acs recent mover gross
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
0
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
1
$1,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
2
$1,530
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
3
$1,765
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
4
$2,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
5
$1,283
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs median gross
$1,427
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 53590
acs recent mover gross
$1,802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 53590
payment standard 110
0
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 90
0
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
safmr
0
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 110
2
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 90
2
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
safmr
2
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 110
3
$2,486
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 90
3
$2,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
safmr
3
$2,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 110
4
$2,783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
payment standard 90
4
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 53590
safmr
4
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.