7991 W 71ST AVE, ARVADA, CO 80004 · CCN 065330 · chain LONG PEAK OPCO LLC
Composite
37.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
110
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 37.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
DERGANCE JEANNAE
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.43
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.18
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.53
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
102.6
3.43
0.47
0.69
2.26
3.18
9.4%
2025Q3
92
105.6
3.29
0.45
0.66
2.19
3.04
8.7%
2025Q2
91
107.1
3.24
0.45
0.63
2.16
2.91
10.5%
2025Q1
90
106.3
3.08
0.45
0.58
2.04
2.76
12.3%
2024Q4
92
104.1
3.00
0.49
0.50
2.02
2.76
16.1%
2024Q3
92
102.0
2.95
0.48
0.48
1.99
2.71
27.1%
2024Q2
91
97.2
3.07
0.42
0.46
2.19
2.85
20.1%
2024Q1
91
98.5
2.76
0.45
0.53
1.77
2.33
13.8%
2023Q4
92
100.9
2.78
0.52
0.50
1.76
2.33
10.5%
2023Q3
92
98.9
3.74
0.51
0.73
2.49
3.41
29.4%
2023Q2
91
99.5
3.83
0.47
0.61
2.74
3.29
0.1%
2023Q1
90
99.8
3.21
0.38
0.61
2.21
2.89
33.3%
2022Q4
92
103.9
3.25
0.39
0.62
2.25
3.02
38.2%
2022Q3
92
103.8
2.98
0.37
0.56
2.05
2.62
26.6%
2022Q2
91
99.9
3.36
0.43
0.57
2.35
2.98
42.9%
2022Q1
90
95.7
3.32
0.52
0.54
2.26
2.99
50.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-02-20
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-08-01
2024-07-30
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
E
2024-08-01
2024-03-13
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
J
2023-12-07
2023-03-16
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-03-20
2023-03-16
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-03-20
2023-03-16
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2023-03-20
2023-03-16
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2023-03-20
2023-03-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2023-03-20
2022-01-06
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
E
2022-03-05
2022-01-06
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-01-31
2022-01-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2022-01-31
2022-01-06
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2022-01-31
2022-01-06
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
E
2022-01-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARBOR VIEW CARE HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HACKBERRY HILL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
75%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BEECAN HEALTH CO LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEECAN HEALTH CO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
DERGANCE, JEANNAE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOSTER, JOSEPH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOSTER, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-22
current
pecos_ownership
HASKELL, CYNTHIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KORETKE, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONG PEAK OPCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOSKOWITZ, JAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RASKIN, CHAIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
VALLE, KARLA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RASKIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA HASKELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAY MOSKOWITZ
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARLA VALLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY KORETKE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HACKBERRY HILL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
75%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HACKBERRY HILL
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
75%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JEANNAE DERGANCE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH FOSTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH FOSTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUFFOLK MGMT
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-06-30
$351,318
—
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$1,331,945
$663,331
—
$35,195
—
8
propco
2022-12-31
$1,477,323
$488,653
—
$29,969
$54,706
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,224,357
$404,643
—
$10,810
$31,415
8
propco
2020-12-31
$1,425,113
$532,641
—
$109
$32,220
8
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08059
acs median gross
0
$1,624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
1
$1,653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
2
$1,863
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
3
$2,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
4
$2,560
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08059
acs median gross
5
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs median gross
$1,861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08059
acs recent mover gross
$1,996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
0
$1,459
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
1
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
2
$1,764
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
3
$2,282
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
4
$2,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
5
$2,908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs median gross
$1,825
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80004
acs recent mover gross
$1,811
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80004
payment standard 110
0
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 90
0
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
safmr
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 110
1
$1,793
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 90
1
$1,467
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
safmr
1
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 110
2
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 90
2
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
safmr
2
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 110
3
$2,794
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 90
3
$2,286
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
safmr
3
$2,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 110
4
$3,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
payment standard 90
4
$2,547
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80004
safmr
4
$2,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.