Screener / 015042

SUMTER HEALTH AND REHABILITATION, L L C

snfAL

1505 EAST 4TH AVENUE, YORK, AL 36925 · CCN 015042 · chain JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR

Composite

22.4 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

125

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 22.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model4 ML signals1 Components12 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing15 Penalties0 Deficiencies8 Licensure0 Ownership29 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent29

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
staffing risk	63.9	63.9	0.25	0.2500	15.98	in index
financial risk	37.7	38.2	0.30	0.3000	11.31	in index
billing conduct	32.4	32.6	0.30	0.3000	9.72	in index
chow risk	2.1	19.3	0.15	0.1500	0.32	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	8 chains	CAPITAL FUNDING LLC	22 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	32.6	B	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	19.3	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
financial risk	38.2	B	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.1	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	4.1	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
staffing risk	63.9	C	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	90.0	F	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	70.0	D	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	44.3	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	43.3	B	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	63.9	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	63.9	C	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

4.1%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

85.0

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	3.83	+0.41
Occupancy	0.82	-0.35
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.1%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

38.3

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Chain size (log)	3.83	-1.03
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Occupancy	0.82	-0.29
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.11

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	AL median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.08	3.37	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.38	0.43	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	2.91	3.04	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.14	3.50	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	102.3	3.08	0.38	0.51	2.19	2.91	0.0%
2025Q3	92	98.2	3.19	0.42	0.61	2.17	2.75	0.0%
2025Q2	91	101.3	3.17	0.36	0.65	2.15	2.84	0.0%
2025Q1	90	101.8	3.24	0.34	0.67	2.23	2.90	0.0%
2024Q4	92	102.7	3.10	0.35	0.66	2.09	2.73	0.0%
2024Q3	92	101.1	3.22	0.36	0.67	2.19	2.82	0.0%
2024Q2	91	102.9	3.17	0.35	0.63	2.18	2.84	0.0%
2024Q1	91	99.4	3.42	0.44	0.61	2.36	2.92	0.0%
2023Q4	92	104.0	3.29	0.35	0.67	2.27	2.76	0.0%
2023Q3	92	102.6	3.07	0.33	0.65	2.09	2.59	0.0%
2023Q2	91	101.6	3.14	0.40	0.62	2.12	2.60	0.0%
2023Q1	90	98.2	3.12	0.33	0.70	2.10	2.65	0.0%
2022Q4	92	95.9	3.17	0.35	0.70	2.12	2.77	0.0%
2022Q3	92	95.2	3.22	0.31	0.68	2.23	2.90	0.0%
2022Q2	91	99.3	2.77	0.26	0.65	1.85	2.48	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 4E × 1F × 3

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2022-04-21	Health	F0638	Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.	D	2022-05-26
2022-04-21	Health	F0921	Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.	E	2022-05-26
2019-09-05	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2019-10-09
2019-09-05	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2019-10-09
2018-08-16	Health	F0565	Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.	D	2018-09-06
2018-08-16	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2018-09-06
2018-08-16	Health	F0814	Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.	F	2018-09-06
2018-08-16	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2018-09-06

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
NORTHPORT HOLDING OPERATIONS, LLC	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	100%	2003-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2024-07-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2023-07-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
ESTES, JAMES	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	51%	1999-12-02	current	pecos_ownership
JAMES N ESTES JR FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	18%	2012-12-27	current	pecos_ownership
JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	18%	2012-12-17	current	pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	6%	2013-06-30	current	pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	6%	2013-06-30	current	pecos_ownership
BOYD, CASEY	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2023-04-28	current	pecos_ownership
CAPITAL FUNDING LLC	5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST	—	2012-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
DAMPEER, JOE	W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE	—	2021-12-24	current	pecos_ownership
DUFFY, MARCIA	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2003-12-12	current	pecos_ownership
HOLDING FACILITIES GROUP LLC	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2012-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2019-10-01	current	pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2022-07-01	current	pecos_ownership
SERVISFIRST BANK	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2018-08-29	current	pecos_ownership
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2012-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
JAMES ESTES	CORPORATE OFFICER	100%	1999-12-02	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JOE DAMPEER	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	100%	2021-12-24	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2020-07-01	ended 2021-06-30	hcris_a_8_1
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2021-07-01	ended 2022-06-30	hcris_a_8_1
SUMTER HEALTH REALTY LLC	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2022-07-01	ended 2023-06-30	hcris_a_8_1
BRANDON AGEE	OTHER	49%	2022-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG	OTHER	49%	2022-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
CASEY BOYD	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	33%	2023-04-28	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	33%	2022-07-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MARCIA DUFFY	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	33%	2003-12-12	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT LLC	OTHER	0%	2007-06-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG	CORPORATE OFFICER	—	2019-10-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2025-06-30	$1,469,470	—	$620,864	—	—	3	propco
2024-06-30	$1,409,106	—	$567,627	—	—	3	propco
2023-06-30	$1,318,573	—	$543,740	—	—	3	propco
2022-06-30	$1,297,079	—	$500,931	—	—	3	propco
2021-06-30	$1,293,856	—	$447,183	—	—	3	propco

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — AL snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-01-01	THE HEALTH CENTER AT RESEARCH PARK	—	—	—	91	SAND CREEK HEALTHCARE, INC.
2024-12-01	ROCKET CITY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	159	WHITESBURG SNF OPERATIONS LLC
2024-11-15	Greenway Health and Rehabilitation Center, LLC	—	—	—	92	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF GRAND BAY OPCO LLC
2024-10-01	THE PINE OF CAMDEN, LLC	—	—	—	95	THE PINES OF CAMDEN LLC
2024-07-01	EXTENDICARE HEALTH AND REHAB	—	—	—	170	NOLAND EXTENDICARE, LLC
2024-02-01	GADSDEN HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	168	GADSDEN HC OPERATIONS LLC
2023-11-17	ST MARTIN'S IN THE PINES	—	—	—	128	PINES BIRMINGHAM OPCO LLC
2023-08-25	TIMBERLAND HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	—	—	—	120	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF BUTLER OPCO LLC
2023-06-20	CAMELLIA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	170	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF MOBILE OPCO LLC
2023-05-01	CAVALIER HEALTHCARE OF TRUSSVILLE	—	—	—	125	CAVALIER HEALTHCARE OF TRUSSVILLE LLC
2023-03-24	FALKVILLE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	—	—	—	116	FALKVILLE SNF OPERATIONS LLC
2023-03-24	DECATUR HEALTH & REHAB CENTER	—	—	—	119	DECATUR SNF OPERATIONS LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 01119	fmr	0	$619	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 01119	acs median gross	1	$458	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 01119	fmr	1	$642	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 01119	acs median gross	2	$718	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 01119	fmr	2	$827	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 01119	acs median gross	3	$975	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 01119	fmr	3	$1,107	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 01119	acs median gross	4	$1,372	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 01119	fmr	4	$1,193	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 01119	acs median gross		$775	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36925	acs median gross	1	$278	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36925	acs median gross	2	$494	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36925	acs median gross	3	$929	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36925	acs median gross		$763	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36925	payment standard 110	0	$693	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 90	0	$567	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	safmr	0	$630	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 110	1	$715	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 90	1	$585	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	safmr	1	$650	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 110	2	$913	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 90	2	$747	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	safmr	2	$830	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 110	3	$1,188	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 90	3	$972	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	safmr	3	$1,080	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 110	4	$1,320	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	payment standard 90	4	$1,080	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36925	safmr	4	$1,200	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.