Composite
35.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 77.5 | 77.5 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 19.38 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 41.6 | 30.5 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 12.48 | in index |
| chow risk | 43.1 | 48.6 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 6.47 | in index |
| financial risk | 15.1 | 23.5 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 4.53 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 23.6 | A | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 73.5 | D | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 23.5 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 3.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 30.5 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 77.5 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 65.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 45.8 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 43.9 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 28.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 30.4 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 30.4 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 77.5 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 77.5 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.70 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.64 | +0.16 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.94 | -0.80 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.64 | -0.33 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.85 | +0.15 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | CO median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.85 | 3.19 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.46 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.69 | 3.02 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.92 | 3.27 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 77.0 | 2.85 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 1.63 | 2.69 | 0.3% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 78.8 | 2.83 | 0.47 | 0.75 | 1.62 | 2.58 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 79.2 | 2.77 | 0.36 | 0.89 | 1.52 | 2.54 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 75.0 | 2.83 | 0.38 | 0.89 | 1.55 | 2.60 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 76.3 | 2.78 | 0.28 | 0.96 | 1.55 | 2.51 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 74.8 | 2.75 | 0.26 | 0.89 | 1.61 | 2.53 | 0.7% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 76.3 | 2.64 | 0.13 | 0.84 | 1.67 | 2.57 | 2.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 75.0 | 2.56 | 0.15 | 0.87 | 1.53 | 2.52 | 2.9% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 76.4 | 2.58 | 0.22 | 0.85 | 1.51 | 2.49 | 0.3% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 77.6 | 1.71 | 0.21 | 0.53 | 0.97 | 1.55 | 3.8% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 77.6 | 2.65 | 0.28 | 0.76 | 1.60 | 2.44 | 5.8% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 76.6 | 2.47 | 0.28 | 0.42 | 1.76 | 2.06 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 74.9 | 2.37 | 0.28 | 0.44 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 11.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 73.2 | 2.52 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 1.56 | 2.34 | 33.1% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 74.2 | 2.52 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 1.67 | 1.88 | 39.6% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 76.3 | 2.52 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 1.56 | 2.32 | 37.8% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0807 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration. | D | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-12-18 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2026-01-09 |
| 2025-02-11 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-03-07 |
| 2025-02-11 | Health · complaint | F0740 | Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services. | D | 2025-03-11 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-02-08 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0646 | Notify the appropriate authorities when residents with MD or ID services has a significant change in condition. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-02-08 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0742 | Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder. | D | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-02-15 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-08 |
| 2024-01-09 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-02-08 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-10-07 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0886 | Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff. | F | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-09-15 | Health | F0888 | Ensure staff are vaccinated for COVID-19 | E | 2022-10-14 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAY MOSKOWITZ | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2004-03-27 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| QP HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2011-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| QUALITY LIFE MANAGEMENT, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2004-03-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TAMI KENDALL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2013-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAY MOSKOWITZ | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 82% | 2004-04-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN BRAMMEIER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 18% | 2011-12-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARY KORETKE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2013-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 107 | FALCON HEIGHTS REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-07-11 | Pueblo Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 120 | CONSTITUTION OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-05-16 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC | — | — | — | 60 | CITY SCAPE REHABILITATION & CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-10-16 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 60 | STORYBROOK CARE & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | CASEY'S POND SENIOR LIVING | — | — | — | 66 | NORTHWEST COLORADO VISITING NURSE ASSOCIATION |
| 2024-09-01 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 83 | POUDRE CANYON REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 81 | WELLSPRINGS CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC | — | — | — | 78 | SOUTH PLATTE REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | WESTLAKE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 107 | LATHAM RIVER HEALTHCARE, INC. |
| 2024-09-01 | THORNTON CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 101 | THORNTON CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2024-09-01 | DURANGO HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 133 | CHIMNEY ROCK HEALTHCARE INC |
| 2024-09-01 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING, LLC | — | — | — | 63 | STERLING REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,564 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 0 | $1,643 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,653 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 1 | $1,754 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,006 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 2 | $2,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,410 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 3 | $2,734 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,551 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | fmr | 4 | $3,049 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,591 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 08031 | acs median gross | $1,831 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 08031 | acs recent mover gross | $1,948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,832 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,727 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,052 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 3 | $2,476 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,607 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 80205 | acs median gross | $1,905 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 80205 | acs recent mover gross | $1,889 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,969 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,611 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | safmr | 0 | $1,790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,101 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,719 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | safmr | 1 | $1,910 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,508 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,052 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | safmr | 2 | $2,280 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $2,682 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | safmr | 3 | $2,980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $3,663 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,997 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 80205 | safmr | 4 | $3,330 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |