Reads as: riskier than 36.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.3 vs natl
ISRAEL LEVI
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.9 vs natl
KULANU OC TRUST
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.3 vs natl
BERDUGO SHAI
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
KLEIN EFRAIM
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BERDUGO SHAI
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
STRIMBU TINA
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
ISRAEL LEVI
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
STRIMBU TINA
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KULANU OC TRUST
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.36
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.45
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
84.9
3.36
0.38
0.87
2.11
3.45
0.0%
2025Q3
92
82.6
3.22
0.45
0.88
1.90
3.29
0.1%
2025Q2
91
83.5
3.30
0.36
0.96
1.97
3.30
8.0%
2025Q1
90
86.0
3.27
0.36
1.00
1.90
3.28
13.2%
2024Q4
92
86.2
3.48
0.42
1.03
2.03
3.45
10.7%
2024Q3
92
84.5
3.52
0.42
0.87
2.23
3.49
8.6%
2024Q2
91
84.6
3.24
0.45
0.82
1.97
3.18
11.1%
2024Q1
91
83.8
3.23
0.39
0.88
1.96
3.21
15.8%
2023Q4
92
82.9
3.22
0.35
0.90
1.97
3.21
30.8%
2023Q3
92
85.4
3.20
0.30
0.96
1.94
3.17
45.6%
2023Q2
91
84.1
3.46
0.45
0.95
2.06
3.55
42.1%
2023Q1
90
85.5
2.90
0.39
0.76
1.75
2.86
34.5%
2022Q4
92
80.1
2.97
0.35
0.89
1.73
2.92
37.5%
2022Q3
92
78.1
3.02
0.35
0.88
1.78
2.96
27.9%
2022Q2
91
73.0
3.00
0.34
1.06
1.59
2.89
31.0%
2022Q1
90
71.6
3.00
0.34
0.99
1.67
2.89
20.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
—
2026-04-24
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
—
2025-09-03
Health · complaint
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2025-09-23
2025-06-18
Health
F0553
Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care.
D
2025-07-15
2025-06-18
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2025-07-15
2025-05-01
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2025-05-13
2025-04-08
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2025-05-13
2024-10-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-24
2024-08-09
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2024-10-09
2024-08-09
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-10-09
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-10-09
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2024-10-09
2024-05-15
Health · complaint
F0574
The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands.
E
2024-04-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CENTURY III PENNSYLVANIA HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERDUGO, SHAI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
CENTURY III TBD HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOBKIN, ARI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL, LEVI
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, EFRAIM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
KULANU OC TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERA, MARIA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
MERA, MARIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
OPIARY, ALYSSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-31
current
pecos_ownership
OPIARY, ALYSSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
current
pecos_ownership
RALLEY 2 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
SINGER, SIMON
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRIMBU, TINA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHAI BERDUGO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2025-03-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EFRAIM KLEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
29%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA STRIMBU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
4%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARI DOBKIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YEHUDA STERN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALYSSA OPIARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-10-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALYSSA OPIARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEVI ISRAEL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA MERA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA MERA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SIMON SINGER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$570,076
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$381,377
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-04-30
$426,312
—
$131,105
$239,520
$6,066
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,778,246
—
$423,484
$776,319
$286,680
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,589,354
—
$378,464
$898,084
$62,234
4
—
2020-12-31
$1,345,303
—
$331,589
$850,423
$12,222
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42079
acs median gross
0
$600
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
fmr
0
$863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42079
acs median gross
1
$752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
fmr
1
$1,028
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42079
acs median gross
2
$1,016
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
fmr
2
$1,252
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42079
acs median gross
3
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
fmr
3
$1,631
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42079
acs median gross
4
$1,306
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
fmr
4
$1,766
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42079
acs median gross
5
$1,428
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
acs median gross
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42079
acs recent mover gross
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
0
$660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
1
$824
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
2
$1,089
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
3
$1,152
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
4
$1,810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs median gross
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 18704
acs recent mover gross
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 18704
payment standard 110
0
$957
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 90
0
$783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
safmr
0
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 110
1
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 90
1
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
safmr
1
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 110
3
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 90
3
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
safmr
3
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 110
4
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
payment standard 90
4
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 18704
safmr
4
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.