Reads as: riskier than 37.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.47
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.82
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.09
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.61
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
57.0
3.47
0.82
1.09
1.55
3.09
0.0%
2025Q3
92
54.8
3.56
0.83
1.10
1.62
3.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
55.3
3.61
0.88
1.03
1.70
3.02
0.0%
2025Q1
90
56.0
3.64
0.82
1.15
1.67
2.94
0.0%
2024Q4
92
54.5
3.96
0.79
1.27
1.90
3.19
0.0%
2024Q3
92
57.2
3.53
0.72
1.16
1.64
2.89
0.0%
2024Q2
91
57.4
4.09
0.79
1.18
2.12
3.33
0.0%
2024Q1
91
59.1
4.40
0.97
1.28
2.15
3.56
0.0%
2023Q4
92
59.3
4.41
0.88
1.27
2.27
3.83
0.0%
2023Q3
92
61.6
4.62
0.84
1.33
2.44
3.74
0.0%
2023Q2
91
58.8
4.45
0.73
1.20
2.51
4.06
0.0%
2023Q1
90
59.0
3.97
0.72
1.20
2.05
3.78
0.0%
2022Q4
92
55.2
4.16
0.75
1.44
1.97
3.89
0.0%
2022Q3
92
56.2
3.99
0.80
1.50
1.68
3.63
0.0%
2022Q2
91
56.2
3.78
0.68
1.33
1.77
3.59
0.0%
2022Q1
90
57.2
4.04
0.81
1.33
1.90
4.01
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
C × 1D × 9E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-18
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2025-08-07
2025-06-18
Health
F0574
The resident has the right to receive notices in a format and a language he or she understands.
C
2025-08-07
2025-06-18
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-18
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-18
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-08-07
2025-06-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-07
2024-05-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-06-21
2024-05-28
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2024-06-21
2024-03-06
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2024-04-05
2023-02-10
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2023-03-13
2023-02-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-03-13
2023-02-10
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-03-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ABBS, JAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNES, DENNIG & CO., LTD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHILDS, JERALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG, JANICE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRUTCHER, MARY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRUTCHER, MARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
DAWSON, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ERVIN, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARQUHER, RONALD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FEICK, DEBBIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST MERCHANTS BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GALLIHER, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HILTZ, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, DUSTIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRKPATRICK-SIKORA, MAGI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LITTLER, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MATCHETT, LOREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHERRER, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW DAWSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBBIE FEICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DUSTIN JONES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC SCHERRER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAN ABBS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANICE CRAIG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY HILTZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERALD CHILDS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN LITTLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LOREN MATCHETT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAGI KIRKPATRICK-SIKORA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK ERVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY CRUTCHER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY CRUTCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL GALLIHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD FARQUHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18035
acs median gross
0
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
fmr
0
$803
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18035
acs median gross
1
$695
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
fmr
1
$845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18035
acs median gross
2
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
fmr
2
$1,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18035
acs median gross
3
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
fmr
3
$1,349
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18035
acs median gross
4
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
fmr
4
$1,685
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18035
acs median gross
$906
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18035
acs recent mover gross
$979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
0
$760
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
1
$868
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
2
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
3
$1,163
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
4
$1,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs median gross
$994
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47304
acs recent mover gross
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47304
payment standard 110
0
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 90
0
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
safmr
0
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 110
4
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
payment standard 90
4
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47304
safmr
4
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.