Reads as: riskier than 8.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
5.28
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.88
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.21
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
5.30
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
101.8
5.28
0.88
0.86
3.54
5.21
0.0%
2025Q3
92
104.2
5.07
0.90
0.80
3.38
4.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
103.6
5.18
0.94
0.78
3.47
5.02
0.0%
2025Q1
90
101.3
4.92
0.91
0.82
3.19
4.80
0.0%
2024Q4
92
104.2
4.91
0.92
0.85
3.14
4.67
0.8%
2024Q3
92
102.7
4.87
0.90
0.81
3.15
4.62
0.0%
2024Q2
91
103.6
4.85
0.98
0.76
3.10
4.47
1.6%
2024Q1
91
100.1
4.86
1.05
0.68
3.13
4.73
3.0%
2023Q4
92
100.5
4.78
1.03
0.71
3.04
4.71
1.9%
2023Q3
92
104.9
4.36
0.86
0.77
2.72
4.29
1.9%
2023Q2
91
103.5
4.28
1.06
0.67
2.56
3.94
7.4%
2023Q1
90
104.2
4.46
1.05
0.63
2.77
4.19
25.4%
2022Q4
92
104.0
4.36
0.96
0.70
2.69
4.19
28.3%
2022Q3
92
105.0
4.08
0.90
0.70
2.49
3.89
26.2%
2022Q2
91
103.6
3.98
0.93
0.65
2.39
3.75
10.3%
2022Q1
90
100.8
4.78
1.01
0.74
3.04
4.57
22.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 10E × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-07-01
2025-05-20
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2025-07-01
2023-06-28
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2023-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVALON VA MANAGEMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON VETERANS SERVICES, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
BORISEVICH, MARIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
BRERETON, DEAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-23
current
pecos_ownership
DANGERFIELD, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
HASH, ALAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, BYRON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-04
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, SPENCER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
OLSON, JERRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
SABOL, DUSAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-30
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, NICOLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
STATE OF UTAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
WOLTIL, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HOLDING INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BYRON KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER K KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE BYRON A KIRTON INDIVIDUAL TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
27%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
K-TEAM LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN HASH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BYRON KIRTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DANGERFIELD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEAN BRERETON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DUSAN SABOL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRY OLSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA BORISEVICH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE SMITH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WOLTIL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49053
acs median gross
0
$1,335
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
1
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
1
$1,218
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
2
$1,409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
2
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
3
$2,072
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
4
$2,159
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
fmr
4
$2,624
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49053
acs median gross
5
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
acs median gross
$1,566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49053
acs recent mover gross
$1,807
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84738
acs median gross
2
$1,803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84738
acs median gross
3
$1,716
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84738
acs median gross
4
$2,603
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84738
acs median gross
$1,769
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84738
acs recent mover gross
$1,188
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84738
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 110
1
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 90
1
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
safmr
1
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 110
2
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 90
2
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
safmr
2
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 110
3
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 90
3
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
safmr
3
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 110
4
$3,245
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
payment standard 90
4
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84738
safmr
4
$2,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.