Reads as: riskier than 94.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
10
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.8 vs natl
WEST CHRISTIAN
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ROBERTSON BRETT
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.5 vs natl
FRAGOSO LINDSAY
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
ESPINOSA STEPHANIE
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.2 vs natl
SAMUELIAN SPENCER
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
NIXON TYLER
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
56% fined
MARRIOTT STEPHEN
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MONUMENT HEALTH GROUP LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
CLAWSON TRAVIS
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MURRAY BRIAN
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.43
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.06
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.25
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.50
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
32.6
3.43
1.06
0.17
2.20
3.25
18.0%
2025Q3
92
34.6
3.26
0.93
0.17
2.16
3.22
19.1%
2025Q2
91
29.3
3.33
0.88
0.25
2.20
3.31
3.9%
2025Q1
90
26.2
2.00
0.48
0.20
1.32
2.07
0.0%
2024Q4
92
32.1
3.15
1.02
0.27
1.86
3.18
7.7%
2024Q3
92
34.1
3.09
1.05
0.21
1.83
3.09
2.5%
2024Q2
91
34.8
3.01
0.95
0.27
1.79
2.85
0.7%
2024Q1
91
36.8
2.75
0.82
0.28
1.65
2.62
0.2%
2023Q4
92
36.0
2.82
0.86
0.34
1.62
2.81
10.4%
2023Q3
92
33.2
3.13
1.00
0.24
1.88
3.03
0.5%
2023Q2
91
33.4
3.27
1.20
0.18
1.89
3.02
0.0%
2023Q1
90
35.2
2.92
0.84
0.18
1.90
2.82
0.3%
2022Q4
92
37.0
3.16
0.84
0.31
2.01
3.00
18.2%
2022Q3
92
36.0
3.02
0.62
0.41
1.99
2.89
44.9%
2022Q2
91
35.5
3.15
0.66
0.36
2.12
3.13
47.9%
2022Q1
90
35.0
3.04
0.72
0.36
1.96
2.92
37.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-12-20
2024-04-16
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0809
Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times.
E
2024-05-17
2024-04-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-17
2022-06-27
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2022-07-29
2022-06-27
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2022-07-29
2022-06-27
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
E
2022-07-29
2022-06-27
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
E
2022-07-29
2022-06-27
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-07-29
2022-06-27
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2022-07-29
2020-02-20
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2020-03-06
2020-02-20
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2020-03-15
2020-02-20
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
G
2019-12-04
2020-02-20
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2020-03-15
2020-02-20
Health
F0775
Keep complete, dated laboratory records in the resident's record.
E
2020-03-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CLAWSON, TRAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
ESPINOSA, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
FRAGOSO, LINDSAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
GUNNISON VALLEY HOSPITAL
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTH GROUP MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
MARRIOTT, STEPHEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
MONUMENT HEALTH GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
MONUMENT HEALTH GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-04
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NIXON, TYLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
OSTERMILLER, MERCEDES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTSON, BRETT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUELIAN, SPENCER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
SEASTRAND, JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, BRADEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
WEST, CHRISTIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN MURRAY
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRADEN SIMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETT ROBERTSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIAN WEST
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON SEASTRAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDSAY FRAGOSO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MERCEDES OSTERMILLER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SPENCER SAMUELIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE ESPINOSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN MARRIOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRAVIS CLAWSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TYLER NIXON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$1,665,271
—
—
—
$937,349
19
—
2024-06-30
$2,918,966
—
—
—
$1,756,655
11
—
2023-06-30
$2,075,577
—
—
—
$1,157,892
9
—
2022-06-30
$1,791,680
—
—
—
$1,129,424
2
—
2021-06-30
$1,681,162
—
—
—
$960,114
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49003
acs median gross
0
$717
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
fmr
0
$771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49003
acs median gross
1
$686
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
fmr
1
$983
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49003
acs median gross
2
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
fmr
2
$1,118
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49003
acs median gross
3
$1,256
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
fmr
3
$1,555
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49003
acs median gross
4
$1,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
fmr
4
$1,875
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49003
acs median gross
5
$2,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
acs median gross
$1,116
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49003
acs recent mover gross
$1,564
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
0
$492
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
1
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
2
$982
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
3
$1,234
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
4
$1,382
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
5
$1,924
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs median gross
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84302
acs recent mover gross
$1,360
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84302
payment standard 110
0
$814
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 90
0
$666
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
safmr
0
$740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 110
1
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 90
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
safmr
1
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 110
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 90
2
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
safmr
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 110
3
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 90
3
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
safmr
3
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 110
4
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
payment standard 90
4
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84302
safmr
4
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.