Reads as: riskier than 78.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.9 vs natl
EMBASSY PA TENANT 2 HOLDINGS LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.7 vs natl
ROHRBACH CHARLES
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.40
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.36
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
112.6
3.40
0.24
1.10
2.06
3.36
0.0%
2025Q3
92
113.0
3.45
0.26
1.09
2.10
3.31
0.0%
2025Q2
91
110.8
3.40
0.23
1.09
2.07
3.23
0.0%
2025Q1
90
111.0
3.32
0.21
1.17
1.93
3.18
0.0%
2024Q4
92
116.0
3.30
0.23
1.13
1.94
3.20
0.0%
2024Q3
92
109.1
3.40
0.27
1.15
1.98
3.29
0.0%
2024Q2
91
100.4
3.37
0.28
1.16
1.93
3.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
110.2
3.40
0.17
1.19
2.04
3.32
0.0%
2023Q4
92
114.8
3.39
0.21
1.16
2.02
3.15
0.0%
2023Q3
92
104.7
3.25
0.32
1.12
1.82
3.05
0.0%
2023Q2
91
104.9
2.92
0.30
1.08
1.54
2.76
0.0%
2023Q1
90
110.2
2.88
0.25
1.08
1.54
2.68
0.0%
2022Q4
92
106.6
2.88
0.28
1.00
1.61
2.77
0.0%
2022Q3
92
97.9
2.99
0.26
1.20
1.53
2.77
0.0%
2022Q2
91
103.5
2.68
0.23
0.99
1.46
2.58
0.0%
2022Q1
90
101.2
2.90
0.21
1.15
1.54
2.50
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
19
C × 2D × 13E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-23
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2026-03-27
2026-02-23
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2026-03-27
2026-02-23
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2026-03-27
2026-02-23
Health · complaint
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2026-03-27
2025-12-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-01-12
2025-04-11
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-19
2025-04-11
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-05-19
2025-04-11
Health · complaint
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
D
2025-05-19
2024-11-22
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-01-03
2024-11-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-03
2024-11-22
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
C
2025-01-03
2024-07-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-08-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health · complaint
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2024-01-22
2023-12-12
Health · complaint
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
C
2024-01-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-11-10
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY PA TENANT 2 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-11-10
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
EMBASSY HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANDLER, AARON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
HERITAGE EMPLOYMENT SERVICES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KING, SARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROHRBACH, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-11-10
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
GEORGE REPCHICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2020-11-10
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
SARA KING
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-12-06
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
2020 GSR DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON HANDLER FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AH DYNASTY LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE S. REPCHICK 2020 FAMILY DYNASTY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES ROHRBACH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA KING
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$612,007
—
$612,007
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$743,170
—
$743,170
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$543,783
—
$543,783
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$646,813
—
$646,813
—
—
1
—
2020-11-09
$525,982
—
—
—
$61,295
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42039
acs median gross
0
$368
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
fmr
0
$723
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42039
acs median gross
1
$632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
fmr
1
$787
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42039
acs median gross
2
$781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42039
acs median gross
3
$981
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
fmr
3
$1,306
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42039
acs median gross
4
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
fmr
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42039
acs median gross
5
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
acs median gross
$802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42039
acs recent mover gross
$803
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
0
$294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
1
$635
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
2
$827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
3
$1,088
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
4
$1,104
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
5
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs median gross
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 16335
acs recent mover gross
$796
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 16335
payment standard 110
0
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 90
0
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
safmr
0
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 110
1
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 90
1
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
safmr
1
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 110
2
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 90
2
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
safmr
2
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 110
3
$1,551
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 90
3
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
safmr
3
$1,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 110
4
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
payment standard 90
4
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 16335
safmr
4
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.