Reads as: riskier than 87.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
21
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.0 vs natl
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT IX LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
DAVIS DAVID
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
BARNEY LEIGH
122 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
14 chains
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
58 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
119 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
69 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
43 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
42 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
TRILOGY HEALTH SERVICES LLC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
NEESE KEVIN
12 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
TRILOGY PROPCO FINANCE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
TRILOGY OPCO LLC
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
TRILOGY PRO SERVICES LLC
23 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
CORBIN KATHY
75 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.73
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.44
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.71
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
59.0
2.73
0.44
0.83
1.45
2.79
0.0%
2025Q3
92
58.5
2.64
0.38
0.75
1.51
2.71
0.0%
2025Q2
91
58.5
2.41
0.37
0.71
1.33
2.37
0.0%
2025Q1
90
58.5
2.02
0.17
0.70
1.16
1.98
0.0%
2024Q4
92
59.1
1.86
0.15
0.58
1.12
1.96
0.0%
2024Q3
92
55.0
2.04
0.22
0.57
1.25
2.07
0.0%
2024Q2
91
54.7
2.13
0.28
0.57
1.28
2.17
0.0%
2024Q1
91
54.6
2.21
0.25
0.63
1.32
2.17
0.0%
2023Q4
92
54.9
2.35
0.28
0.74
1.32
2.47
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.9
2.43
0.34
0.66
1.44
2.36
0.0%
2023Q2
91
49.5
2.69
0.64
0.54
1.50
2.54
0.0%
2023Q1
90
53.0
2.65
0.41
0.61
1.62
2.57
0.0%
2022Q4
92
52.9
2.94
0.31
1.03
1.60
2.74
0.0%
2022Q3
92
55.2
2.57
0.27
0.95
1.36
2.39
0.0%
2022Q2
91
59.6
2.57
0.20
0.80
1.57
2.56
0.0%
2022Q1
90
59.7
2.49
0.18
1.08
1.23
2.39
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 8E × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-04
Health
F0777
Provide or obtain x-rays/tests when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2026-03-13
2025-01-14
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2025-01-30
2025-01-14
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-01-30
2025-01-14
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-01-30
2025-01-14
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2025-01-30
2024-03-07
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-03-28
2024-03-07
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-03-28
2024-03-07
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-03-28
2024-03-07
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-03-28
2024-03-07
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-03-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DAVIESS COUNTY HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT INC
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARNEY, LEIGH
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-26
current
pecos_ownership
CORBIN, KATHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, DAVID
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-26
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC3 TRILOGY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
GAHC4 TRILOGY JV LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEYBANK NATIONAL ASSOCIATION
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEESE, KEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOWACKI, TODD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
PARAGON OUTPATIENT REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
RHS PARTNERS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SETTLES, APRIL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTH SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE MASTER TENANT IX LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-26
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY HEALTHCARE OF BLOOMINGTON LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY INVESTORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PRO SERVICES LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPCO FINANCE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE BLOOMINGTON, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-28
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRILOGY REIT HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
APRIL SETTLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHY CORBIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN NEESE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD NOWACKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,140,942
—
—
$640,699
$277,952
4
—
2023-12-31
$2,043,610
—
—
$645,014
$257,996
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,742,889
—
—
$493,916
$230,266
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,859,627
—
—
$577,122
$213,378
3
—
2020-12-31
$1,472,623
—
—
$612,710
$181,993
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18105
acs median gross
0
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18105
acs median gross
1
$1,037
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
fmr
1
$1,072
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18105
acs median gross
2
$1,209
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
fmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18105
acs median gross
3
$1,414
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
fmr
3
$1,572
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18105
acs median gross
4
$1,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
fmr
4
$1,906
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18105
acs median gross
5
$1,857
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
acs median gross
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18105
acs recent mover gross
$1,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
0
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
1
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
2
$1,218
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
3
$1,267
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
4
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs median gross
$1,148
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47404
acs recent mover gross
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47404
payment standard 110
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 90
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
safmr
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 110
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 90
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
safmr
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 110
2
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 90
2
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
safmr
2
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 110
3
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 90
3
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
safmr
3
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 110
4
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
payment standard 90
4
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47404
safmr
4
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.