Reads as: riskier than 17.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
HEALTHCARE THERAPY SERVICES INC
14 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PROACTIVE MEDICAL REVIEW AND CONSULTANTS LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.71
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.45
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.26
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.88
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
36.9
3.71
0.45
1.02
2.23
3.26
2.9%
2025Q3
92
37.9
2.98
0.31
0.72
1.95
2.50
3.2%
2025Q2
91
37.1
3.03
0.48
0.62
1.93
2.95
21.4%
2025Q1
90
38.1
2.69
0.60
0.57
1.52
2.61
35.3%
2024Q4
92
40.2
2.67
0.69
0.52
1.47
2.40
44.5%
2024Q3
92
40.4
2.78
0.59
0.45
1.75
2.40
47.3%
2024Q2
91
40.4
2.55
0.40
0.53
1.63
2.31
37.0%
2024Q1
91
37.4
1.54
0.15
0.36
1.03
1.63
0.0%
2023Q4
92
36.7
2.30
0.25
0.45
1.59
2.44
42.5%
2023Q3
92
31.4
2.14
0.26
0.48
1.41
2.43
50.2%
2023Q2
91
30.5
2.26
0.41
0.34
1.51
2.22
67.3%
2023Q1
90
37.1
2.08
0.30
0.26
1.51
2.03
19.0%
2022Q4
92
36.8
2.23
0.21
0.43
1.58
2.11
0.0%
2022Q3
92
35.3
2.35
0.29
0.41
1.66
2.40
0.0%
2022Q2
91
36.6
2.43
0.16
0.57
1.70
2.42
0.3%
2022Q1
90
36.1
2.52
0.24
0.55
1.73
2.60
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
21
D × 18E × 1F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-09-26
2025-09-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-09-26
2025-06-30
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2025-07-17
2025-02-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-02-28
2024-09-13
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-10-01
2024-09-13
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-01
2024-09-13
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-10-01
2024-09-13
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-01
2024-09-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-01
2024-08-14
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-09-02
2024-08-14
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-09-02
2024-07-22
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-08-09
2023-09-08
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0622
Not transfer or discharge a resident without an adequate reason; and must provide documentation and convey specific information when a resident is transferred or discharged.
D
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
E
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-09-28
2023-09-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-09-28
2023-08-09
Health · complaint
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2023-08-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
47
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BORNE-BAUMAN, CANDICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROGUARD, DUANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRUNE, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
CEDAR CREEK RETIREMENT HOME INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUGGAN, AMANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST BANK OF BERNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHER, PAUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLUECKIGER, RUSSELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHCARE THERAPY SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KLOPFENSTEIN, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, SCOTT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
LEPLEY, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
MACKLIN, LARRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCINTIRE, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROACTIVE MEDICAL REVIEW AND CONSULTANTS LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLATTER, LOWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLATTER, MITCH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLIE, AUSTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLIE, AUSTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHRENK, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPRUNGER, KYLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHEELER, DANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
YODER, THOMAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMANDA DUGGAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUSTIN SCHLIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AUSTIN SCHLIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDICE BORNE-BAUMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANE WHEELER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MCINTIRE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DUANE BROGUARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN KLOPFENSTEIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KYLE SPRUNGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MACKLIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LOWELL SCHLATTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MITCH SCHLATTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL FISCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL FLUECKIGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT BRUNE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT LEHMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-07-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SCHRENK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS YODER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM LEPLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$149,976
—
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$152,177
—
—
—
—
5
—
2022-12-31
$167,045
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$176,475
—
—
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$199,753
—
—
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18003
acs median gross
0
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
0
$892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
1
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
1
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
2
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
2
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
3
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
3
$1,381
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
4
$1,301
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
fmr
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18003
acs median gross
5
$1,265
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
acs median gross
$1,021
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18003
acs recent mover gross
$1,142
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46765
acs median gross
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46765
payment standard 110
0
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 90
0
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
safmr
0
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 110
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 90
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
safmr
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 110
2
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 90
2
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
safmr
2
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 110
3
$1,859
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 90
3
$1,521
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
safmr
3
$1,690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 110
4
$2,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
payment standard 90
4
$1,656
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46765
safmr
4
$1,840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.