Reads as: riskier than 0.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
UT median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.95
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.25
0.78
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.84
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.99
3.25
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.8
4.95
1.25
0.34
3.37
4.84
0.9%
2025Q3
92
102.8
5.01
1.26
0.36
3.39
4.84
1.1%
2025Q2
91
100.5
5.17
1.29
0.46
3.42
5.03
0.1%
2025Q1
90
101.6
5.12
1.27
0.42
3.43
5.00
0.1%
2024Q4
92
101.3
5.07
1.21
0.44
3.42
4.96
0.1%
2024Q3
92
101.9
5.16
1.22
0.46
3.48
5.03
0.1%
2024Q2
91
102.0
5.04
1.30
0.33
3.41
4.86
0.3%
2024Q1
91
100.7
5.05
1.33
0.42
3.31
4.90
2.7%
2023Q4
92
103.0
4.50
1.12
0.44
2.94
4.50
5.5%
2023Q3
92
103.6
4.50
1.18
0.51
2.81
4.19
4.4%
2023Q2
91
104.2
4.86
1.18
0.55
3.13
4.54
12.2%
2023Q1
90
107.2
4.73
1.30
0.63
2.80
4.50
20.2%
2022Q4
92
106.0
4.38
1.37
0.50
2.51
4.13
5.5%
2022Q3
92
105.4
4.39
1.28
0.63
2.48
4.19
0.0%
2022Q2
91
104.7
4.92
1.17
0.74
3.01
4.61
1.0%
2022Q1
90
104.6
4.72
1.05
0.80
2.86
4.41
4.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 9E × 2F × 1G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-13
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2026-04-28
2024-03-28
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-04-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-04-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-04-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-19
2024-03-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-04-19
2022-04-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
G
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-05-02
2022-04-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-05-02
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AVALON VA MANAGEMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-02-17
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE MANAGEMENT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON VETERANS SERVICES, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
BORISEVICH, MARIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-08
current
pecos_ownership
BOTT, WESLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON 2011 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANGERFIELD, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2007-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
GONZALES, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HASH, ALAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JANET KIRTON 2011 IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, BYRON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-12-23
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-04
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, HYRUM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
KIRTON, SPENCER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
NEWBY, JOSHUA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-21
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, NICOLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
STATE OF UTAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
THE CHARLES R KIRTON SR 2000 TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, CEARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
WOLTIL, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2012-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
AVALON HEALTH CARE INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON HOLDING INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON VA MANAGEMENT LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVALON VETERANS SERVICES, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2019-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2003-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN HASH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE STUART
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANNE STUART
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN SWINTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARL TIPPETS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-12-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2003-09-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE FRANKLIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-09-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DANGERFIELD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAROLD BURTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-08-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HYRUM KIRTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY OWENS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER COOKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT WOLTIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SEBASTIAN PAQUETTE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESTON PARSONS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-09-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 49049
acs median gross
0
$1,379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
0
$1,257
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
1
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
1
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
2
$1,303
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
2
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
3
$1,774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
3
$2,031
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
4
$2,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
fmr
4
$2,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 49049
acs median gross
5
$2,268
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
acs median gross
$1,541
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 49049
acs recent mover gross
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs median gross
2
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs median gross
3
$1,723
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs median gross
4
$1,519
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs median gross
5
$2,260
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs median gross
$1,525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 84651
acs recent mover gross
$1,679
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 84651
payment standard 110
0
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 90
0
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
safmr
0
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 110
1
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 90
1
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
safmr
1
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 110
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 90
2
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
safmr
2
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 110
3
$2,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 90
3
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
safmr
3
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 110
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
payment standard 90
4
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 84651
safmr
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.