Reads as: riskier than 10.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.3 vs natl
BERDUGO SHAI
18 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
CLAYSHIRE LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BERDUGO SHAI
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
ANDRES ANTHONY
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SINGER CHAYA
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
CLAYSHIRE LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
STRIMBU TINA
6 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
CASTLE INDIANA MANAGEMENT LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
LT CARE ACQUISITION CORP
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
STRIMBU TINA
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
NEUMAN MENASHE
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.61
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.16
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.79
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
71.2
2.61
0.25
0.97
1.38
2.16
0.0%
2025Q3
92
75.4
2.61
0.39
0.86
1.36
2.14
0.0%
2025Q2
91
73.7
2.29
0.29
0.92
1.09
1.98
0.0%
2025Q1
90
80.8
2.10
0.24
0.81
1.05
1.71
0.0%
2024Q4
92
72.3
2.35
0.28
0.99
1.08
2.03
0.0%
2024Q3
92
71.4
2.91
0.25
1.02
1.64
2.49
0.0%
2024Q2
91
73.5
2.72
0.20
0.90
1.63
2.37
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.8
2.82
0.30
0.92
1.60
2.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
77.6
2.77
0.29
0.84
1.64
2.52
0.0%
2023Q3
92
74.5
2.56
0.22
0.72
1.62
2.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
75.2
2.26
0.28
0.59
1.39
2.08
0.1%
2023Q1
90
67.2
2.38
0.24
0.60
1.54
2.28
1.0%
2022Q4
92
63.1
2.83
0.33
0.81
1.69
2.78
16.8%
2022Q3
92
66.3
2.33
0.26
0.40
1.67
2.03
0.0%
2022Q2
91
63.1
2.59
0.29
0.47
1.83
2.04
0.0%
2022Q1
90
60.4
2.88
0.39
0.68
1.81
2.34
8.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
C × 1D × 14E × 2G × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-05
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
—
2026-03-05
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
—
2026-02-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2026-02-16
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2026-02-26
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-28
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2026-01-28
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-01-28
2025-04-03
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-04-25
2025-04-03
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-04-25
2025-04-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-25
2025-04-03
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-04-25
2024-01-04
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-01-15
2023-09-13
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-09-22
2023-06-30
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-30
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-30
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2023-07-25
2023-06-30
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-30
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-07-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
46
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDRES, ANTHONY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDRES, ANTHONY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERDUGO, SHAI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLUE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BORNE-BAUMAN, CANDICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASTLE INDIANA MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHALET REALTY
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHALET REALTY
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CLAYSHIRE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, NESANEL
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
DECATUR REAL PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DECATUR REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FIRST BANK OF BERNE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLUECKIGER, RUSSELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLUECKIGER, RUSSELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUGHES, EDWARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-10-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEHMAN, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
LT CARE ACQUISITION CORP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MACKLIN, LARRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MACKLIN, LARRY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCINTIRE, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEUMAN, MENASHE
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
SINGER, CHAYA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, SCOTT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPRUNGER, KYLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STRIMBU, TINA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
WHEELER, DANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ANDRES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ANDRES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDICE BORNE-BAUMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHALET REALTY
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHALET REALTY
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DANE WHEELER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MCINTIRE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EDWARD HUGHES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KYLE SPRUNGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MACKLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MACKLIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL FLUECKIGER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL FLUECKIGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT LEHMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-07-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHAI BERDUGO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,710,580
$2,248,865
$461,715
—
—
10
propco
2023-12-31
$1,731,993
$1,284,138
$412,067
—
—
8
propco
2022-12-31
$1,287,832
$892,107
$395,725
—
—
8
propco
2021-12-31
$568,872
$378,109
$190,763
—
—
10
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18097
acs median gross
0
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
fmr
0
$1,118
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18097
acs median gross
1
$1,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
fmr
1
$1,267
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18097
acs median gross
2
$1,178
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
fmr
2
$1,473
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18097
acs median gross
3
$1,369
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
fmr
3
$1,907
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18097
acs median gross
4
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
fmr
4
$2,338
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18097
acs median gross
5
$1,573
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
acs median gross
$1,153
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18097
acs recent mover gross
$1,328
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
1
$1,041
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
2
$1,038
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
3
$1,346
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
4
$1,722
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
5
$1,349
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs median gross
$1,137
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 46221
acs recent mover gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 46221
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 110
1
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 90
1
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
safmr
1
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 110
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 90
2
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
safmr
2
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 110
3
$2,046
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 90
3
$1,674
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
safmr
3
$1,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 110
4
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
payment standard 90
4
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 46221
safmr
4
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.