Reads as: riskier than 48.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
PARACHA IBRAR
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.55
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.52
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.25
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.67
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.8
2.55
0.52
0.30
1.73
2.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
107.1
2.51
0.55
0.32
1.64
2.21
0.0%
2025Q2
91
107.9
2.68
0.61
0.34
1.73
2.37
0.0%
2025Q1
90
108.6
2.79
0.64
0.34
1.81
2.46
0.0%
2024Q4
92
111.3
2.74
0.52
0.40
1.82
2.44
0.0%
2024Q3
92
111.3
2.61
0.47
0.44
1.69
2.33
0.0%
2024Q2
91
107.1
2.49
0.33
0.58
1.58
2.14
0.5%
2024Q1
91
103.0
2.57
0.29
0.67
1.60
2.19
2.5%
2023Q4
92
105.1
2.42
0.34
0.53
1.55
2.14
5.0%
2023Q3
92
105.0
2.51
0.31
0.57
1.63
2.19
7.4%
2023Q2
91
102.5
2.53
0.29
0.60
1.64
2.16
9.2%
2023Q1
90
100.8
2.45
0.20
0.63
1.61
2.17
15.4%
2022Q4
92
100.9
2.26
0.21
0.54
1.51
2.01
1.6%
2022Q3
92
94.5
2.24
0.12
0.64
1.48
1.92
2.0%
2022Q2
91
95.0
2.29
0.17
0.58
1.53
2.04
3.7%
2022Q1
90
95.5
2.04
0.18
0.67
1.19
1.83
5.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14
D × 11E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-04
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-05-07
2025-04-04
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2025-03-21
2025-04-04
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-05-07
2025-04-04
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-28
2025-04-04
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-07
2024-05-29
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-06-26
2024-05-29
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-06-26
2024-05-29
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-06-26
2023-03-28
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-28
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-28
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-28
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-04-21
2023-03-28
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2023-04-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
67
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, NATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, NATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-16
current
pecos_ownership
BABCOCK, PAUL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
CAINE, VIRGINIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
CHIES, STEVEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, STACY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
DICE, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOUCET, KELLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
DRUMMER, CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISCH, GARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GODDARD, NICHOLE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-11
current
pecos_ownership
HANIFY, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, LISA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2003-12-22
current
pecos_ownership
HORN, BRENDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-20
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, BLAKE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, ETHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, WESSLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUSTICE, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELSEY, DONNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
LAZARD, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-29
current
pecos_ownership
O'BRIEN, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
OHI ASSET (IN) LAFAYETTE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2012-08-31
current
pecos_ownership
PARACHA, IBRAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
PARACHA, IBRAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
SHANE, ANDREW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIMPSON, JAMES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
STITLE, STEPHEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAN CAMP, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, THERESSA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-05-21
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREW SHANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BLAKE JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRENDA HORN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARL DRUMMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JUSTICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA KELSEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ETHAN JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARY FISCH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IBRAR PARACHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IBRAR PARACHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES SIMPSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY DOUCET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA HARRIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2003-12-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK DICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL O'BRIEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN ANDERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-11-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATHAN ANDERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLE GODDARD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAUL BABCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-09-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT LAZARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACY DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN STITLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN CHIES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-03-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN VAN CAMP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THERESSA WRIGHT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-05-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS HANIFY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TURTLE CREEK MANAGEMENT
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
VIRGINIA CAINE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-01-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESSLEY JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$771,086
—
—
—
—
13
—
2023-12-31
$718,445
—
—
—
—
13
—
2022-12-31
$707,461
—
—
—
—
14
propco
2021-12-31
$730,794
—
—
—
—
15
propco
2020-12-31
$680,909
—
—
—
—
15
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18157
acs median gross
0
$961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
fmr
0
$894
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18157
acs median gross
1
$982
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
fmr
1
$1,032
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18157
acs median gross
2
$1,138
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
fmr
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18157
acs median gross
3
$1,274
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
fmr
3
$1,489
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18157
acs median gross
4
$1,732
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
fmr
4
$1,992
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18157
acs median gross
5
$1,073
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
acs median gross
$1,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18157
acs recent mover gross
$1,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
0
$766
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
1
$809
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
2
$1,079
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
3
$1,143
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
4
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs median gross
$996
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47904
acs recent mover gross
$1,296
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47904
payment standard 110
0
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 90
0
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
safmr
0
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 110
1
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 90
1
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
safmr
1
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 110
2
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 90
2
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
safmr
2
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 110
3
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 90
3
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
safmr
3
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47904
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.