5822 S LOWELL WAY, LITTLETON, CO 80123 · CCN 065320 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Composite
28.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
35
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 28.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
123 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
CARETRUST GP LLC
89 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q3 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.08
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.08
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.08
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q3
92
30.6
3.08
0.76
0.35
1.97
3.08
12.6%
2025Q2
91
29.5
3.25
0.69
0.39
2.17
2.99
5.0%
2025Q1
90
31.8
3.33
0.64
0.37
2.31
2.93
3.4%
2024Q4
92
31.1
3.37
0.72
0.35
2.29
2.99
10.5%
2024Q3
92
33.0
3.05
0.68
0.29
2.08
2.77
7.0%
2024Q2
91
32.8
3.24
0.73
0.35
2.16
2.94
10.2%
2024Q1
91
33.1
3.03
0.73
0.38
1.92
2.86
10.1%
2023Q4
92
32.8
3.09
0.70
0.39
2.00
2.99
8.9%
2023Q3
92
32.7
2.96
0.69
0.35
1.92
2.90
6.4%
2023Q2
91
33.4
2.83
0.48
0.36
2.00
2.88
9.4%
2023Q1
90
33.3
2.88
0.59
0.34
1.96
2.63
11.2%
2022Q4
92
33.7
2.73
0.67
0.23
1.83
2.55
8.9%
2022Q3
92
32.0
2.94
0.84
0.17
1.93
2.62
0.4%
2022Q2
91
34.5
2.90
0.81
0.21
1.87
2.77
0.9%
2022Q1
90
35.4
2.84
0.76
0.24
1.84
2.42
5.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-03-12
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-10-21
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-10-21
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-10-21
2024-01-09
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-01-28
2024-01-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-01-28
2024-01-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-01-28
2023-09-07
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-05-26
2022-09-14
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2022-10-04
2022-09-14
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2022-10-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST GP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUNYON, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
HORTON, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
HORTON, CHRISTOPHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
JORGENSEN, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
JORGENSEN, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JORGENSEN, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOWELL HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
ONSHIFT INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2009-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2002-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
ENDURA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARRY PORT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID DUNYON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JORGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JORGENSEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2009-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER HORTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER HORTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JORGENSEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$646,295
—
$436,581
—
—
4
—
2023-12-31
$560,895
—
$377,770
—
$15,546
4
—
2022-12-31
$755,855
—
$594,464
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$716,249
—
$337,662
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$645,982
—
$337,662
—
$1,144
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08005
acs median gross
0
$1,660
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
0
$1,643
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
1
$1,577
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
1
$1,754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
2
$1,978
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
2
$2,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
3
$2,412
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
3
$2,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
4
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
fmr
4
$3,049
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08005
acs median gross
5
$2,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs median gross
$1,891
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08005
acs recent mover gross
$2,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
0
$1,759
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
1
$1,889
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
2
$2,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
3
$2,319
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
4
$2,448
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs median gross
$2,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80123
acs recent mover gross
$1,859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80123
payment standard 110
0
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 90
0
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
safmr
0
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 110
1
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 90
1
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
safmr
1
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 110
2
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 90
2
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
safmr
2
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 110
3
$3,454
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 90
3
$2,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
safmr
3
$3,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 110
4
$3,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
payment standard 90
4
$3,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80123
safmr
4
$3,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.