Reads as: riskier than 6.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
16 chains
BAKER TILLY ADVISORY GROUP LP
77 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
BAKER TILLY US LLP
63 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
U S BANK
36 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.48
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.51
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.50
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.46
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
6.2
4.48
1.51
0.69
2.28
4.50
0.0%
2025Q3
92
2.8
3.99
1.30
0.57
2.12
4.20
0.0%
2025Q2
91
5.2
4.55
1.38
0.74
2.42
4.47
0.0%
2025Q1
90
6.3
5.13
1.60
0.85
2.67
5.00
0.0%
2024Q4
92
6.0
5.26
1.53
0.88
2.86
5.18
0.0%
2024Q3
92
6.3
5.17
1.48
0.92
2.78
5.01
0.0%
2024Q2
91
6.7
4.42
1.30
0.78
2.35
4.50
0.0%
2024Q1
91
5.7
4.90
1.49
0.77
2.64
4.70
0.0%
2023Q4
92
7.3
5.28
1.85
0.68
2.74
5.28
0.0%
2023Q3
92
7.9
4.73
1.34
0.83
2.56
4.74
0.0%
2023Q2
91
7.8
4.34
1.18
0.55
2.61
4.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
31.4
3.49
0.93
0.40
2.16
3.48
0.0%
2022Q4
92
32.2
3.39
0.86
0.43
2.09
3.37
0.0%
2022Q3
92
35.6
3.32
0.72
0.47
2.12
3.34
0.0%
2022Q2
91
33.2
3.45
0.80
0.45
2.19
3.44
0.0%
2022Q1
90
33.0
3.55
0.76
0.58
2.21
3.44
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
1
D × 1
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-02-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
74
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ACTS ACQUISITION AND DEVELOPMENT COMPANY LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2003-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS ALLIANCE MANAGEMENT LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS COMMUNITIES OF MARYLAND, INC.
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS LEGACY FOUNDATION, INC.
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS RETIREMENT SERVICES, INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2009-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS RETIREMENT-LIFE COMMUNITIES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS RETIREMENT-LIFE COMMUNITIES INC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS RETIREMENT-LIFE COMMUNITIES MANAGEMENT, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS RETIREMENT-LIFE COMMUNITIES MANAGEMENT, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
ACTS SIGNATURE COMMUNITY SERVICES INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
AHERN, SUSAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AHERN, SUSAN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
ALLMOND, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALLMOND, SUSAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAKER TILLY ADVISORY GROUP, LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
BAKER TILLY US, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
BONITA SPRINGS RETIREMENT VILLAGE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROD, KATHRYN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-15
current
pecos_ownership
CALLAWAY, WARREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-30
current
pecos_ownership
CHALFIN, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAMBERLAIN, LINDA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIANSEN, KAREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-05-25
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIANSEN, KAREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DETWEILER, HAROLD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTERHAI, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1996-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOX, GLENN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERNER, ELRIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERNER, ELRIC
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GLYNN, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRANT, GERALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRANT, GERALD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-05-13
current
pecos_ownership
GREER, JASON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-30
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-11
current
pecos_ownership
LAMMERS, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
LAWSON, DANIEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAWSON, DANIEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-11
current
pecos_ownership
MASHNER, MARVIN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MASHNER, MARVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1991-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEASE LIFE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIDDLEBROOKS, DANIEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMOS, DIANA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
REICHARD, DAWN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
U.S. BANK
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-09
current
pecos_ownership
U.S. BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-11
current
pecos_ownership
DANIEL LAWSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL LAWSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-06-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL MIDDLEBROOKS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN REICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANA RAMOS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELRIC GERNER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELRIC GERNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD GRANT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2005-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERALD GRANT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2008-05-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GLENN FOX
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAROLD DETWEILER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES GLYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON GREER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ESTERHAI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1996-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN LAMMERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN CHRISTIANSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN CHRISTIANSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-05-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHRYN BROD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-02-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDA CHAMBERLAIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARVIN MASHNER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARVIN MASHNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1991-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL KELLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-02-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT CHALFIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN AHERN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN ALLMOND
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN ALLMOND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WARREN CALLAWAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-03-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,814,236
—
$1,631,180
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$2,833,327
—
$1,576,598
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$2,510,085
—
$1,388,230
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$2,342,371
—
$1,299,198
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$2,495,562
—
$1,308,402
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42091
acs median gross
0
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
fmr
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091
acs median gross
1
$1,467
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
fmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091
acs median gross
2
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
fmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091
acs median gross
3
$2,029
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
fmr
3
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091
acs median gross
4
$2,103
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
fmr
4
$2,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42091
acs median gross
5
$2,343
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
acs median gross
$1,683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42091
acs recent mover gross
$1,838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19034
acs median gross
1
$1,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19034
acs median gross
3
$2,793
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19034
acs median gross
$1,673
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 19034
payment standard 110
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 90
0
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
safmr
0
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 110
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 90
2
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
safmr
2
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 110
4
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
payment standard 90
4
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19034
safmr
4
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.