Reads as: riskier than 43.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.3 vs natl
TRANSPERFECT HEALTH CORP
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
12 chains
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
PA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.32
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.21
3.27
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.36
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
111.1
3.32
0.46
0.82
2.04
3.21
14.0%
2025Q3
92
107.4
3.31
0.46
0.85
2.00
3.09
19.7%
2025Q2
91
107.2
3.37
0.50
0.82
2.06
3.24
22.1%
2025Q1
90
110.1
3.27
0.35
0.91
2.01
3.15
21.1%
2024Q4
92
110.2
3.17
0.44
0.73
2.01
3.02
12.8%
2024Q3
92
109.1
3.23
0.46
0.75
2.02
3.08
13.2%
2024Q2
91
104.4
3.31
0.49
0.81
2.02
3.06
11.1%
2024Q1
91
103.3
3.25
0.51
0.73
2.01
3.15
13.8%
2023Q4
92
107.0
3.18
0.48
0.71
2.00
3.14
15.2%
2023Q3
92
103.7
3.16
0.45
0.70
2.01
3.02
18.5%
2023Q2
91
104.2
2.92
0.37
0.70
1.85
2.83
17.4%
2023Q1
90
103.6
3.00
0.48
0.70
1.82
2.81
15.5%
2022Q4
92
104.0
2.90
0.45
0.72
1.73
2.70
15.1%
2022Q3
92
103.2
2.74
0.56
0.68
1.50
2.53
18.5%
2022Q2
91
105.6
2.78
0.56
0.69
1.53
2.63
21.5%
2022Q1
90
103.2
2.87
0.58
0.70
1.59
2.52
31.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
24
D × 14E × 9F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2026-04-09
2026-03-11
Health · complaint
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
E
2026-04-09
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-02-10
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2026-02-10
2025-12-03
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-12-08
2025-09-03
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-10-02
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-06-25
2025-05-30
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-25
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-03-11
2025-02-06
Health · complaint
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
F
2025-03-11
2024-06-07
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-06-27
2024-06-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2024-06-27
2024-06-07
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2024-06-27
2024-06-07
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-06-27
2024-05-19
Health · complaint
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2024-06-13
2024-04-02
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-12
2023-06-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2023-07-25
2023-06-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-07-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
8550 BARNES LAKE ROAD LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CAPITAL FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
FELDMAN, MARC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAURANO, MATTHEW
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRANSITIONS HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, KEVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, DAYNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
WILSON, DAYNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
current
pecos_ownership
ZDRALE, NIKOLAI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-02-04
current
pecos_ownership
DAYNA WILSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAYNA WILSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC FELDMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW MAURANO
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NIKOLAI ZDRALE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-02-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$563,951
—
—
—
—
3
—
2023-12-31
$567,734
—
—
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$351,475
—
—
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$351,475
—
—
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$351,475
—
—
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 42129
acs median gross
0
$578
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
fmr
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42129
acs median gross
1
$653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
fmr
1
$1,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42129
acs median gross
2
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
fmr
2
$1,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42129
acs median gross
3
$1,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
fmr
3
$1,661
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42129
acs median gross
4
$1,181
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
fmr
4
$1,789
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 42129
acs median gross
5
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
acs median gross
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 42129
acs recent mover gross
$977
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
0
$574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
1
$835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
2
$1,039
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
3
$1,139
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
4
$1,411
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs median gross
$1,008
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 15642
acs recent mover gross
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 15642
payment standard 110
0
$1,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 90
0
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
safmr
0
$940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 110
1
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 90
1
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
safmr
1
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 110
2
$1,342
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 90
2
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
safmr
2
$1,220
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 110
3
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 90
3
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
safmr
3
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 110
4
$1,848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
payment standard 90
4
$1,512
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 15642
safmr
4
$1,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.